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AUD/USD

  • #25,781
  • Dec 13, 2010 5:06am Dec 13, 2010 5:06am
Quoting gleem
does anyone trade the AUD/CAD cross here? Ive been short for over 2 weeks was making nice profit untill i got rolled by strong employment figures.. Looking at putting a tp at break even as the swap is starting to kill me
Yup targeting ~90 region for that, should be there within a couple of months. Note the good symmetry on daily chart, and we have two HS's here on the top.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #25,782
  • Dec 13, 2010 5:11am Dec 13, 2010 5:11am
will short around 9890 , good resistance zone around this lvl

lets see
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #25,783
  • Dec 13, 2010 7:25am Dec 13, 2010 7:25am
good place to short
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  • #25,784
  • Dec 13, 2010 7:43am Dec 13, 2010 7:43am
Quoting FX-Petra
been out a few hours and came back in to see the nice break higher. I have targeted 9980, so another 100 pips and I'll call it a year and take the rest of Dec. off. No use trading the weeks of Christmas and New Year anyway. Holding 9770 and 9850 for 9980 target. Good trades to all.....

Regards,
Inching closer to 9980 target. Being so close Christmas, I am getting my "Messiah" CD ready just in case it hits! Still long from 9770 and 9850. Good trades to all!!

Regards,
  • #25,785
  • Dec 13, 2010 12:14pm Dec 13, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Inching closer to 9980 target. Being so close Christmas, I am getting my "Messiah" CD ready just in case it hits! Still long from 9770 and 9850. Good trades to all!!

Regards,
I just closed my 9770 postion @ 9955. Just wanted to lock in some profit and take some risk off the table. Still holding 9850 long, moved S/L up to +10 pips @ 9860. Profit target still @ 9980 for this trade... but I may move it up a little to 1.040 or so. If the inverse H&S on the daily breaks, it should be good for a few more pips. Not certain yet about the move, still watching PA. We will see.

Regards,
  • #25,786
  • Dec 13, 2010 12:34pm Dec 13, 2010 12:34pm
I'm long too for a break over the 1.0000 to close
To Your Success!!
  • #25,787
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:56pm Dec 13, 2010 8:56pm
there have been a couple of events that one would have expected the aussie to fall and it has held steady.

One being this mornings building starts figure which was -13.2 when -5 was expected.

The other was the Chinese inflation data/interest rates which did not spark a drop unlike similar news about a month ago.

I also read in the EUR/USD thread that the Fed will be spending QE money next week.

If the market is pricing this in I guess we may go over parity again next week.

This is flying in the face of an expectation of people pulling risk money out before christmas.

What do we think - a revisit to 101 next week and then a drop to 96 by christmas?

JJW

(PS I am a beginner asking questions, don't let my thoughts influence your trades!)
  • #25,788
  • Dec 13, 2010 9:09pm Dec 13, 2010 9:09pm
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  • #25,789
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:34am Dec 14, 2010 4:34am
Well we have seen parity reached again. I wonder whether we will see a new high prior to the weekend (or this year anyway).
Will be a good sign that the long term up trend is still in play if we reach a new high. Alternatively it may be an early sign that we have reached the end of the up trend if a new high is not made (early call).

I'm bullish so hopeful of seeing an new high above 1.02
  • #25,790
  • Dec 14, 2010 6:28am Dec 14, 2010 6:28am
Quoting timster
Well we have seen parity reached again. I wonder whether we will see a new high prior to the weekend (or this year anyway).
Will be a good sign that the long term up trend is still in play if we reach a new high. Alternatively it may be an early sign that we have reached the end of the up trend if a new high is not made (early call).

I'm bullish so hopeful of seeing an new high above 1.02

Perhaps a pullback to around .9950 before going higher?
Although it's climbing while I type.
I closed long at 1.0013, where I see R1 on a daily chart.
Who can say?
  • #25,791
  • Dec 14, 2010 7:14am Dec 14, 2010 7:14am
Quoting FX-Petra
I just closed my 9770 postion @ 9955. Just wanted to lock in some profit and take some risk off the table. Still holding 9850 long, moved S/L up to +10 pips @ 9860. Profit target still @ 9980 for this trade... but I may move it up a little to 1.040 or so. If the inverse H&S on the daily breaks, it should be good for a few more pips. Not certain yet about the move, still watching PA. We will see.

Regards,
did you bust out the cd yet?
  • #25,792
  • Dec 14, 2010 7:26am Dec 14, 2010 7:26am
Quoting Jjw
there have been a couple of events that one would have expected the aussie to fall and it has held steady.

One being this mornings building starts figure which was -13.2 when -5 was expected.
housing starts is really nonsense and not that important people really wait for the permit data..
Quote
The other was the Chinese inflation data/interest rates which did not spark a drop unlike similar news about a month ago.
If china setups in and says holy crap we need to slow down our growth its getting out of control.. why would that cause a drop in the aussy? aussy is tied to china and china cant load ships up fast enough off the coast of australia.. i mean shit they are driving through the great barrier reef trying to get there faster lol... which wasnt cool but still... so I dont see why saying the main country you export to is seeing horrific growth as a bad thing...
Quote
I also read in the EUR/USD thread that the Fed will be spending QE money next week.
fed has already been buying bonds this is faulty economics that will work but put us in a bad situation in the future.. and I suppose many traders and investors/smart money knows this..
Quote
If the market is pricing this in I guess we may go over parity again next week.

This is flying in the face of an expectation of people pulling risk money out before christmas.
there is a miscommunication about how money is managed around this time.. excess exposure is taken off the table but many positions are still being held.. squaring on needs to happen on the books.. you dont need to fully take the profit to square the book.. so that is over hyped.. The main this is that money managers dont absorb excess exposure around these times... this reduces the liquidity and allows for temporary more violent moves in the market.. some say alot of manipulation comes in about now.. I say its hard to prove.
Quote
What do we think - a revisit to 101 next week and then a drop to 96 by christmas?

JJW

(PS I am a beginner asking questions, don't let my thoughts influence your trades!)

I think another High volume break above 1.00 and well be stuck there for a while.. my initial target was around 1.03 or so but in january well gauge the volume and see what sticks.. but im long for a while on this...
  • #25,793
  • Dec 14, 2010 7:27am Dec 14, 2010 7:27am
interesting PA at the moment. fell in love with 1.0000 ^^
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #25,794
  • Dec 14, 2010 8:41am Dec 14, 2010 8:41am
Quoting domino
did you bust out the cd yet?
Moved the limit on my 9850 to 1.0030, and it just missed on the move up. Moved my stop up to 9930, so even if I get stopped out, it is still sweet. I am adding another 1/2 lot @ 9955 (stop also @ 9930) if we get there on this retrace. Whatever happens, this is likley my last trade sequence for the year. Normally, I would not move my stops so tight.... but I have been murdered (more than once) in late Dec., so I am protecting my profit!

Regards,
  • #25,795
  • Dec 14, 2010 9:09am Dec 14, 2010 9:09am
my view @ H1 & H4 tf
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Put your hands in the air , Give me all your money ! !
  • #25,796
  • Dec 14, 2010 11:18am Dec 14, 2010 11:18am
We have a reversed head and shoulders formation on a daily chart, that is about to be broken. What do you think: http://sobstvenbiznes.net/photogallery.php?photo_id=30
go go go
  • #25,797
  • Dec 14, 2010 12:28pm Dec 14, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting @40
We have a reversed head and shoulders formation on a daily chart, that is about to be broken. What do you think: http://sobstvenbiznes.net/photogallery.php?photo_id=30

Looks like it was broken around 9965
  • #25,798
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:56pm Dec 14, 2010 1:56pm
Hard to see what about the FOMC statement was dollar positive.... but as usual FX Market seems to do the opposite of expectation. Way should be clear to 1.0080 over the next couple of days.

Regards,
  • #25,799
  • Dec 14, 2010 2:23pm Dec 14, 2010 2:23pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Hard to see what about the FOMC statement was dollar positive.... but as usual FX Market seems to do the opposite of expectation. Way should be clear to 1.0080 over the next couple of days.

Regards,

Seems like its more to do with the rising US bond yields after announcement and general overbought conditions last day or so.
  • #25,800
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:50pm Dec 14, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting mck6206
Seems like its more to do with the rising US bond yields after announcement and general overbought conditions last day or so.
These markets are running on fuel vapour.
Europe is about to come under attack from the US media again.
Italy now in the firing zone but Austria and Belgium have entered the arena.
Aussie at parity again despite bad data and the yields are proving a good earner.
Great for online shoppers downunder.. Local retail stores suffering. About time as they have been ripping us off for years.
I suspect exporters will be buyers near 9930 and Ipods and cameras will be sellers at 1.0030
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