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G10 Major Pairs Discussion

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Dec 22, 2010 10:48pm Dec 4, 2010 11:36am | Edited Dec 22, 2010 10:48pm

Hello traders,

I've started this thread to talk about trades in all G10 currencies. The purpose of this thread is to share our analysis and trade setups in order to help us better understand and manage our trades. Good luck to all and I look forward to sharing trades with you

These actions are strictly prohibited in this thread....

1) bashing or name-calling
2) political nonsense debates
3) religious topics
4) making calls without any analysis(chart) backup
5) spamming the thread with uncited news or any other kind

Repeat offenders will unfortunately be shut out.
  • #2
  • Edited 12:56pm Dec 4, 2010 11:44am | Edited 12:56pm
I see some people calling for a break of 1.4283 already after a small covering rally, which I obviously cant see happening.

ask yourself this: "what fundamentals have changed that could have signaled an end to this downtrend"? i cant find any.

1) i think people are forgetting the fact that china has a monetary policy meeting on dec7, in which they will most likely take an aggressive stance at curbing rampant inflationary pressures(raise i rates).

2)Ok, then ECB is starting to print, yes last week they bought a lot of bonds, but they didnt disclose yet how much. So they are trying to hide the fact that they are printing to slow down the inevitable sell-off of the euro.

3) technically speaking there was a golden cross on 10/18, then fell 1300 pips below the 200dma, so one can assume that the golden cross is no longer valid, and very high volatility can be expected here.

4) strong fibonacci resistance comes near 3465-3509.

my 6h system is giving very strong confluence with the daily fibonacci resistance as well
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  • #3
  • Dec 5, 2010 11:20am Dec 5, 2010 11:20am
Last Friday, Canadian employment numbers came better than expected while US employment numbers were mixed, but overall negative. In the means of technical support there is major fibonacci support at parity, and right below that there is strong monthly support near .9867. If those levels are broken there isnt much support until .9054, which is a long way down. If all these levels towards .9867 break, I would become bearish on this pair.

It certainly appears that the major MA's are containing any upside currently, and it would take a fundamental shift positive for the USD to bring this pair back above 1.0275. On the daily, there is a bullish pennant signaling a pullback in this pair, my 6h system confirms that there will be some sort of pullback very shortly here. A rounded bottom is very likely.

I had a long last friday from just above parity that I took off the table already, and I'm looking to get long again either Monday or Tuesday, although I would like some type of fundamental confirmation like risk aversion....
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  • #4
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:19pm Dec 5, 2010 4:19pm
Quoting mfoste1
Last Friday, Canadian employment numbers came better than expected while US employment numbers were mixed, but overall negative. In the means of technical support there is major fibonacci support at parity, and right below that there is strong monthly support near .9867. If those levels are broken there isnt much support until .9054, which is a long way down. If all these levels towards .9867 break, I would become bearish on this pair.

It certainly appears that the major MA's are containing any upside currently, and it would take a fundamental...
let me be the first to post here a few charts where i see USD bearish trend continue ---

here is the first one---usd/cad - weekly chart-

bears engulf weekly against the TL - break of lower TL and parity i do see 0.94 is next-- ( based on only TA )
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  • #5
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:28pm Dec 5, 2010 4:28pm
usd/chf---

technical we are still bearish and we only had an ABC correction and we will contiunue down south to lower levels--- typical ABC flag on daily chart--- looking for shorts is a better option
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  • #6
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:40pm Dec 5, 2010 4:40pm
aus/usd---- we are still trading in the upward channel ? was this only a ABC correction ? and we still looking to go up north ? if this is the case easy spotted inverted H&S is in the making ... 0.9694 an untest supp level,that might be the right tip of H&S ?

scneario 2---- some will see the bigger H&S top that might also played out--- its tricky--- i tihnk i will go for bullish on that inverted H&S right tip at 0.9694--
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  • #7
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:53pm Dec 5, 2010 4:53pm
same patterns as many USD cross pairs ? is this also end of an ABC correction and we looking for new highs ? i really think the weight is more on USD bearish to be continue coming days/weeks -maybe months---

lets play the charts--- as you can see we bounce of the 200 SMA daily MA and i guess only a break of that MA and TL we might pop lower to low 1.24's,,but for now i tihnk we can look for buying dips -

im kinda bullish now on eur/usd --

( i was bearish on all of them,,but it looks like it turn out that this was only a correction in many pairs )
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  • #8
  • Dec 5, 2010 5:02pm Dec 5, 2010 5:02pm
out of topic---but a pair that is worthwile to add it on the shortlist for a major bottom and a turn to go extreme bullish-- eur/aud

chart says it all !
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  • #9
  • Dec 5, 2010 5:04pm Dec 5, 2010 5:04pm
nice charts gucci

i like your aud/usd chart, I think aud is probably the strongest currency right now due to the fact that it is most sensitive to gold, equities risk. If China moves forward this week at curbing inflation, aud will get hit very hard. I think most of the market is getting ready for this inevitable outcome.
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  • #10
  • Edited 5:25pm Dec 5, 2010 5:08pm | Edited 5:25pm
most important chart the USD index-- i post a while ago in skype room that i run --- as i was wait for 80.50 level to go bullish agaisnt the USD on all pairs,,but rather sit and watch it first-- if USD index break 80.50 again,,i tihnk we might go USD bullish for alot further up-- its dec and thin market condidtions-- so spikes up and down might happen here !

http://screencast.com/t/qeYgRZ3B8ofU
  • #11
  • Dec 5, 2010 5:47pm Dec 5, 2010 5:47pm
last chart until something else pop up,,, im currently holding long gbp/chf for a position entry for much higher levels into next year --- confidence still low,until we break 1.6000--- this might be a bottom for very long term- as i hope so-- not sure yet,but went with it ,until im proven wrong--below 1.5250 i might kill it - we will see

dont trade much during dec ,but will only hold onto this one and see where it can get me--

enjoy! catch you later !

GL
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  • #12
  • Dec 5, 2010 9:38pm Dec 5, 2010 9:38pm
Pound is in a tough place right now between 100dma and this 50 fib level(1.0520-2.1160)....my ideal entry for short would be closer to this major 50fib level. Tuesday Gbp has Halifax and Thursday rate statement. 6h system shows nice agreement with this fib level.
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  • #13
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:47am Dec 6, 2010 2:47am
gbp/chf ---daily chart!

kinda like this pair ATM -- if it turns out good-- excellent R/R !
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  • #14
  • Dec 6, 2010 2:32pm Dec 6, 2010 2:32pm
Quick snap of an intraday 15m chart with some MAs and SR levels. My analysis from the previous charts still looks valid, I'm waiting for todays close to see where we stand. RBA meeting tonight, most likely no rate raise, Im also waiting for China monetary meeting. Risk still looks to be to the downside, although there was a bit of dip buying today.
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  • #15
  • Dec 12, 2010 1:15pm Dec 12, 2010 1:15pm
I love it, Matt. Yea, there are too many a-holes out there. Watch that dive on GBP/CHF, could touch 5100, but I doubt it now. Still holding short and selling rallys. Got Huge buy signal on G/U but gonna wait for pullback to get in.

Jim


Quoting mfoste1

Hello traders,

I've started this thread to talk about trades in all G10 currencies. The purpose of this thread is to share our analysis and trade setups in order to help us better understand and manage our trades. Good luck to all and I look forward to sharing trades with you

These actions are strictly prohibited in this thread....

1) bashing or name-calling
2) political nonsense debates
[size=1][color=red][b]3)...
  • #16
  • Dec 12, 2010 2:21pm Dec 12, 2010 2:21pm
I just got a signal to go long on the Daily on E/U. Remember, long term E/U trend is still up. As for 4283, I cant see that yet, but I got a lot of confluence there as price sits at 61.8 Fib level from 8/24 - 11/4 move. Be very careful of shorts here, this system has yet to fail me.....LOL but sooner or later.......you know what I mean. I have my view posted in my thread, Matt if you want to check it out.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=914

Jim

Quoting mfoste1
I see some people calling for a break of 1.4283 already after a small covering rally, which I obviously cant see happening.

ask yourself this: "what fundamentals have changed that could have signaled an end to this downtrend"? i cant find any.

1) i think people are forgetting the fact that china has a monetary policy meeting on dec7, in which they will most likely take an aggressive stance at curbing rampant inflationary pressures(raise i rates).

2)Ok, then ECB is starting to print, yes last week they bought a lot of bonds, but they didnt...
  • #17
  • Dec 12, 2010 2:56pm Dec 12, 2010 2:56pm
mfoste1, good luck with the new thread, and good luck to you in general. Whatever happens, keep trying - persistence will bring you success, I am sure.

and if things get too serious here, you are always welcome back in the funhouse
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18
  • Dec 12, 2010 3:06pm Dec 12, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting The Fool
mfoste1, good luck with the new thread, and good luck to you in general. Whatever happens, keep trying - persistence will bring you success, I am sure.

and if things get too serious here, you are always welcome back in the funhouse


thanks man im taking a break from live trading till january....market conditions arent very friendly atm for me. i didnt take a break in the summer when i should have and i dont wana make the same mistake i did then lol. Im still gonna make a few demo trades and analysis till them.
  • #19
  • Dec 12, 2010 3:09pm Dec 12, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting Nene
I just got a signal to go long on the Daily on E/U. Remember, long term E/U trend is still up. As for 4283, I cant see that yet, but I got a lot of confluence there as price sits at 61.8 Fib level from 8/24 - 11/4 move. Be very careful of shorts here, this system has yet to fail me.....LOL but sooner or later.......you know what I mean. I have my view posted in my thread, Matt if you want to check it out.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=914

Jim
hey jim i checked that out. good analysis....my daily charts are saying it could go either way right now, ill post the analysis a little bit later tonight.
  • #20
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:14am Dec 13, 2010 8:14am
.....did you catch that drop on GBP/CHF, Matt.....


Jim

Quoting Nene
I love it, Matt. Yea, there are too many a-holes out there. Watch that dive on GBP/CHF, could touch 5100, but I doubt it now. Still holding short and selling rallys. Got Huge buy signal on G/U but gonna wait for pullback to get in.

Jim
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