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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #14,921
  • Dec 10, 2010 12:07pm Dec 10, 2010 12:07pm
1.5700 and 1.5800 level proved to a strong SR for this week. I still have last position @ break even to see who will come out a winner at these two levels.
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  • #14,922
  • Dec 10, 2010 12:22pm Dec 10, 2010 12:22pm
Boss: I still consider the Boss trend is still down, until I see HH HL. I will watch what future price does @ 82.80 and 86.60 that will give us more clues about the Boss trend.
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  • #14,923
  • Dec 10, 2010 12:40pm Dec 10, 2010 12:40pm
Boss trend is still up but she is in her retracement. First retracement is survial at this moment @ .9700. Her next level will be .9360.

Worker: I will future price does @ .9700 that will give us clues if she wants to retrace to .9360 level.
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  • #14,924
  • Dec 10, 2010 3:34pm Dec 10, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting Milan
it wasnt the question to get a signal for a trade. It was just the question for wide discussion. But it seems, nobody is willing to comment market situation.
For safe entry I will wait to go long above 88 on USDJPY, this train is at turning point including USDCHF. EurUSD is already in downtrend for me and others will follow.
  • #14,925
  • Dec 11, 2010 12:24am Dec 11, 2010 12:24am
Quoting patrick25
1.5700 and 1.5800 level proved to a strong SR for this week. I still have last position @ break even to see who will come out a winner at these two levels.
nice trade on gbpusd!
  • #14,926
  • Dec 11, 2010 3:45pm Dec 11, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting hcristea
nice trade on gbpusd!
Thanks Hcristea.

Base on Boss's current swings, current up trend still intact.

Worker, I will wait for it to trend up. There are three levels I will watch for price action to tell me more.
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  • #14,927
  • Edited 6:33am Dec 12, 2010 6:02am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting patrick25
Thanks Hcristea.

Base on Boss's current swings, current up trend still intact.

Worker, I will wait for it to trend up. There are three levels I will watch for price action to tell me more.
Hi Patrick25,
I consider EU is downtrend because of BEOB on monthly and broken 20 & 50 EMA. This month candle reject 20&50 EMA.
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  • #14,928
  • Dec 12, 2010 7:04pm Dec 12, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting glasso
Hi Patrick25,
I consider EU is downtrend because of BEOB on monthly and broken 20 & 50 EMA. This month candle reject 20&50 EMA.
It depends on which trend you are looking at.

Immediate trend is down, intermediate is up and long term we can say is in a down trend.
  • #14,929
  • Dec 12, 2010 10:06pm Dec 12, 2010 10:06pm
Quoting glasso
Hi Patrick25,
I consider EU is downtrend because of BEOB on monthly and broken 20 & 50 EMA. This month candle reject 20&50 EMA.
Yes, four months ago. If the Big Boss takes out 1.2670, I would change my mind. For now price is @ Big Boss support and Boss support, will let price leave the way. Boss hammer will be in control for now. Worker, I will look for PA at bottom or above of Boss hammer.
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  • #14,930
  • Dec 13, 2010 12:58am Dec 13, 2010 12:58am
f/u of an ongoing long term post. Follow that lne backwards to see how significant is really is.
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  • #14,931
  • Dec 13, 2010 4:35am Dec 13, 2010 4:35am
Strat's faithful and trusty Strat Shadow doing it's job yet again
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,932
  • Dec 13, 2010 4:47am Dec 13, 2010 4:47am
Oh no, this is getting boring!

Strat Shadow doing it's job yet again on AUDUSD - and there are more!

If ever you didn't believe, NOW is the time to START believing!

I Believe - Frankie Laine
The Bachelors
The Righteous Brothers
Elvis Presley
Barbara Streisand
Frank Sinatra
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,933
  • Edited Dec 14, 2010 11:04am Dec 13, 2010 3:12pm | Edited Dec 14, 2010 11:04am
Further to my earlier posts on this pair (14865 p 991 and 14888, 14893 p 993), re Long demo trade, TP1 and TP2 were achieved on day 2. Since then I am still holding the 3rd tranche which just closed highest since start of trade.

Now trying to add on. Because near an all time high, but remembering Dr Joe's axiom, am only placing buy stop for 2 tranches, instead of the usual 3.

Details:

PA BUEB on W. BUEB on B. BUEB on BB. All in sync and very bullish.

SR. Friday's bar tested and stopped a psycho R 0.9850. Yesterday's bar sliced through R and closed much higher with small upper shadow.

Entry 0.9994 (chartreuse)

SL 0.9742 (magenta) 10 pips below 7 December swing low.

TP1 5/7 of position,+100 pips 1.0094 (pale orchid), comfortably below R at 1.0156

Concern: may be setting up for a "rubber band effect" pullback, before going higher. Hope my buy stop is high enough to avoid a fill in case of a pullback.

Sorry about all the dotted lines relating to the original, ongoing trade.

Feedback welcome.
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"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #14,934
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:00am Dec 14, 2010 10:00am
I have hold my last position @ break even to see some sort of support established. 1.5700 level seems to be meaningfull SR for gbdusd. I moved last position below this level.
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  • #14,935
  • Dec 14, 2010 11:59am Dec 14, 2010 11:59am
The EURUSD looks like it is setting up for a fall.

Today's bar (2 1/2 hours to the close) on the W is a weak bar, almost a SS with a long upper shadow, which indicates that sellers are preventing the price moving higher.

To use a futures traders term, on each of the TFs, price has returned "to value" as depicted by the EMAs; or as we know it, the Strat Shadow.

On both the B and BB, the 2 EMAs are flat and intertwined, the Strat Shadow is virtually non-existent and price is blocked and unable to move higher.

It looks like the intermediate rally that started in June on the B is over.

The brief corrective rally that started on 1 December on the W is also over, and price is setting up to fall in sync with the dominant downtrend.

I am waiting for suitable PASR to short. What do you think?
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"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #14,936
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:10pm Dec 14, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting strat
Strat's faithful and trusty Strat Shadow doing it's job yet again

Ahhh....!
MUCH better!
  • #14,937
  • Dec 14, 2010 2:11pm Dec 14, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting No1Optimist
Further...
Hello No!Optimist!
Thanks for your post.
I am no expert and your analysis of the charts and reasons for taking the "add-on" trade seem reasonable but I would ask the following:

1. Is this a good risk:reward when considered alone - an approx 250pip SL for a 100pip target?

2. The shooting stars of 14 and 15 October have high at 1.0002. Would not a close above this high (just 8 pips above your entry) give more confidence that your target is achievable?

3.Would not the retracement (ended with the BUEB of 9 Dec and arrowed on my chart) have been a better position to add on to your trade?

regards, Trogger
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  • #14,938
  • Dec 14, 2010 2:37pm Dec 14, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting patrick25
I have hold my last position @ break even to see some sort of support established. 1.5700 level seems to be meaningfull SR for gbdusd. I moved last position below this level.
Patrick, you are a top trader...
  • #14,939
  • Edited 4:03pm Dec 14, 2010 3:16pm | Edited 4:03pm
Quoting trogger
Hello No!Optimist!
Thanks for your post.
I am no expert and your analysis of the charts and reasons for taking the "add-on" trade seem reasonable but I would ask the following:

1. Is this a good risk:reward when considered alone...
1)In my limited experience I think there are already so many filters in place to decide whether or not to enter a trade, that if you are looking for a good R:R as well, you will very seldom be able to take a trade.

I use strict money management, by never risking more than 2% of my trading account balance, after discounting the balance for any ongoing trades. Then I calculate the trade risk, by multiplying the pip risk by the initial risk (entry price-stop loss). That allows me to calculate the number of micro or mini lots to trade. That number is then divided by 3 and then adjusted subjectively, according to my estimation of the likely result.

Using this form of money management, it doesn't matter what the R:R is, you can still trade safely.

2) Maybe, but I am trying to overcome my tendency to over-analyze.

3) With regard to the 9 December BUEB being a better entry, it looks better with the benefit of hindsight, but I was looking for more confirmation that the up trend had resumed.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #14,940
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:05am Dec 15, 2010 11:05am
My last position stopped out. Back to waiting mode again.
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