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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,481
  • Dec 6, 2010 4:30am Dec 6, 2010 4:30am
volatility is picking up again. Most of my long-term positions have moved nicely into more profits.

By the way, eur/aud doesn't seem to want to retrace. Looks like we will see another big move down.
  • #9,482
  • Dec 6, 2010 6:32am Dec 6, 2010 6:32am
Quoting Custos
volatility is picking up again. Most of my long-term positions have moved nicely into more profits.

By the way, eur/aud doesn't seem to want to retrace. Looks like we will see another big move down.

I already shorted it, but closed for 50 pips around 1.3450. stayed more than 9 hours in this trade.
  • #9,483
  • Dec 6, 2010 6:35am Dec 6, 2010 6:35am
I do not see safer entries on other pairs, but I started watching GBP/CHF. depending upon today PA it might become interesting. I will check the rest when i am back form job.
E/U it is hard to tell if it is pulling back or retracing for now. same G/U. I will be waiting. You know, Sunday/Monday is not easy to pick directions.
  • #9,484
  • Dec 6, 2010 6:38am Dec 6, 2010 6:38am
the worst I missed short Eur/Chf last week. I tried to enter after the break but was not filled. I saw it coming all the way.
  • #9,485
  • Dec 6, 2010 6:45am Dec 6, 2010 6:45am
Quoting shiko
I do not see safer entries on other pairs, but I started watching GBP/CHF. depending upon today PA it might become interesting. I will check the rest when i am back form job.
E/U it is hard to tell if it is pulling back or retracing for now. same G/U. I will be waiting. You know, Sunday/Monday is not easy to pick directions.
sorry, but I have to disagree with that statement. If there is a day that will determine the direction for the upcoming week, then it definitely is monday. And very often monday has lots of momentum behind it.
  • #9,486
  • Dec 6, 2010 6:58am Dec 6, 2010 6:58am
Quoting shiko
the worst I missed short Eur/Chf last week. I tried to enter after the break but was not filled. I saw it coming all the way.
well, then I would enter with a market or stop order. then you definitely always get filled (except on news of course)
  • #9,487
  • Dec 6, 2010 1:50pm Dec 6, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting Custos
well, then I would enter with a market or stop order. then you definitely always get filled (except on news of course)

yeah, I was waiting for level to get broken and then retrace and fill my limit order. It did not. Stop order would get me in definitely.
  • #9,488
  • Dec 8, 2010 6:19am Dec 8, 2010 6:19am
Hi,

I have a theory which I was hoping you guys and girls could provide some feedback on.

I believe that Trend trading is more suited to daily charts where as trading the swings and retracements is probably better done on th 4hr.

The reason I say this is that when a trend gets into motion it really goes and hence pull backs on the daily can be a rare occurrence. So would it be right to say that you can trade in the direction of the major trend but enter on the pull backs on the 4hr chart.

I know that the daily and 4 hour can be trending in opposite directions and obviously that is something that you need to take into account but generally speak does what I say make sense?

Thanks
  • #9,489
  • Dec 8, 2010 7:04am Dec 8, 2010 7:04am
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi,

I have a theory which I was hoping you guys and girls could provide some feedback on.

I believe that Trend trading is more suited to daily charts where as trading the swings and retracements is probably better done on th 4hr.

The reason I say this is that when a trend gets into motion it really goes and hence pull backs on the daily can be a rare occurrence. So would it be right to say that you can trade in the direction of the major trend but enter on the pull backs on the 4hr chart.

I know that the daily and 4 hour can be trending in opposite...
the biggest edge you have is to stay with the trend. So, a good advice from me: don't bother with trading retracements.

well, and generally: pull up a weekly chart and a 15 min chart. If you didn't know which time-frame the charts belonged to, you would problably never know, cause there is no difference in how price behaves. So saying that the trend only belongs to the daily is a far stretch, trends also occur on m5, h1, h4,... with the same frequency.
I personally just prefer the larger time-frames, cause they give me time to think, also news don't matter as much.

cheers
  • #9,490
  • Dec 8, 2010 7:30am Dec 8, 2010 7:30am
Hi custos

No I know what you are saying. I was saying to trade counter trend, what I was referring to was entering trades in the direction of the trend on a lower time frame. So if you are following the daily then when the or ice pulls back on the 4 hr you can enter a 123 the direction of the trend.

Sorry is that clearer?
  • #9,491
  • Dec 8, 2010 7:37am Dec 8, 2010 7:37am
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi custos

No I know what you are saying. I was saying to trade counter trend, what I was referring to was entering trades in the direction of the trend on a lower time frame. So if you are following the daily then when the or ice pulls back on the 4 hr you can enter a 123 the direction of the trend.

Sorry is that clearer?
okay, you meant that. Yeah, why not, I am doing that the whole time.
  • #9,492
  • Dec 8, 2010 9:48am Dec 8, 2010 9:48am
anybody looking to short eur/chf on the H4 looks like a triangle to me?
  • #9,493
  • Dec 8, 2010 10:12am Dec 8, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Andy_G
anybody looking to short eur/chf on the H4 looks like a triangle to me?
yep, hopefully it breaks to the downside
  • #9,494
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:02pm Dec 8, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting Andy_G
anybody looking to short eur/chf on the H4 looks like a triangle to me?
yep, just checked. triangle. if it breaks downside, why not
I am watching E/U and A/U and kinda feel confused. down trend already or still uptrend?
  • #9,495
  • Edited 2:48pm Dec 8, 2010 2:06pm | Edited 2:48pm
I stopped even watching any lower than 4H time frames. Mostly watch and trade from daily bars.
  • #9,496
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:08pm Dec 8, 2010 2:08pm
one more point. I noticed that S/R that can be seen on weekly holds very well and many big retracements actually started from those levels. i was not watching weekly but started doing it now.
  • #9,497
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:48pm Dec 8, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting shiko
I stopped even watching any lower than 4H time frames. Mostly watch and trade from daily bars. But I noticed one thing, while pin bar can have very good R:R ratio on 4H , it mostly sucks on daily. R:R is simply horrible and a lot of failed pins.
I even went as far as checking every pin bar for E/U and G/U even not the best ones since November 2009 to today on 4H chart and with say R:R per trade 1:1.5 to 1:2 depending upon pin bar length it would be very profitable indeed. Hit rate would not be very good 50/50 to 60/40. but thanks to higher returns...
what was your exit criterium for determining the R:R per trade?
  • #9,498
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:50pm Dec 8, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting Custos
what was your exit criterium for determining the R:R per trade?
Pin bar for those 2 pairs less than 60 pips, take profit is 2 for risk 1. Pin bar more than 60 pips, take profit 1:1.5 for risk. just set take profit , no other target. obviously many times price would move much further.
  • #9,499
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:51pm Dec 8, 2010 2:51pm
I had around 220-230 pin bars over 13 months on 4H. not all of them 100% PBs but frankly we never know which one going to win. some excellent loking pin bars were losers. like Friday's GBP/CHF
  • #9,500
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:54pm Dec 8, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting shiko
Pin bar for those 2 pairs less than 60 pips, take profit is 2 for risk 1. Pin bar more than 60 pips, take profit 1:1.5 for risk. just set take profit , no other target. obviously many times price would move much further.
hm, then I don't understand what you mean with that the daily doesn't have so good R:R ratios since your selection of take profit is set arbitrarily to a certain amount.

So you are saying that on the daily chart, price normally doesn't reach 1:1.5 and 1:2? Or what do you mean?
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