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Lucky Spike System

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Dec 15, 2010 10:40am Dec 8, 2010 1:43am | Edited Dec 15, 2010 10:40am
Short intro:

No one can say I'm not determined.
Have started several threads, met some great people...
And boy have I learned a lot!!!
Working like anything to develop an ea really brought home a lot of insight into what works and what doesn't.
The ea is actually decent. But not quite good enough to actually put money into.
Then researching other eas. Having a lot more understanding about what to look for and what to avoid.
Found a couple very good, free, steady winners, passing 10 year backtests with flying colors, 80% win ratio. 120%/year. You know I have them attached to my account right now.

But for this thread I want to present a very, very simple scalping strategy that I found while researching on the net.
Lotta fun. The strategy is very sound.
Have been trading demo with it recently with good results.
The "lucky spike" is a good example of how to trade candle patterns. It's a simple pattern to spot.
We will be using other candle patterns also along with an adx crossing indicator.

Decent description of basic candlestick patterns:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candlestick_pattern

So here we go with the:

"Lucky Spike".


http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...dylDVv9FZ-WciR

Bullish Signal
1. Strong downtrend.
2. Lucky Spike, Buy!
3. Place Stop Loss just below the Lucky Spike shadow.
4. Take profit on the next candlestick's close.
http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/534/spikeh.png
Bearish Signal
1. Strong uptrend.
2. Lucky Spike, Sell!
3. Place Stop Loss just above the Lucky Spike shadow.
4. Take profit on the next candlestick's close.
http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/6117/spike2.png
After a spike, there is often a longer candlestick – bullish after strong downtrend, or bearish after strong uptrend. Not every time, but it happens far more often than not. Whether the trend has reversed or not, trade just one candlestick for a few pips profit. That's easier and more effective than chasing the trend or watching how it is turning against you on the next candlestick.

Can be used with the smallest time-frame as well as daily, weekly or even monthly time-frame. You trade no more than one candlestick. Enter on the open and exit on the close.


INDICATORS AND TEMPLATE ARE HERE: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=161

  • #2
  • Dec 8, 2010 1:45am Dec 8, 2010 1:45am
These are the demo trades so far pre London open.
5 min charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lucky.gif Size: 53 KB
  • #3
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:00am Dec 8, 2010 2:00am
just took another short scalp
USDCAD 5m
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lucky2.gif Size: 57 KB
  • #4
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:14am Dec 8, 2010 2:14am
thank you so much! i was looking for something like this!

cheers!
passion and discipline
  • #5
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:17am Dec 8, 2010 2:17am
Quoting rohule
thank you so much! i was looking for something like this!

cheers!
This is it...
  • #6
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:59am Dec 8, 2010 2:59am
I use the sessions indi to show when the mkts open.
There is usually a big move around that time.
A good place for a spike...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lucky3.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #7
  • Edited 5:45am Dec 8, 2010 5:19am | Edited 5:45am
GBPUSD

Very tight stop losses
Just above the spike..

Missed take profit by 1 pip..

The only divergence was a macd divergence on the 1m. and that was pretty shallow...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lucky4.gif Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: lucky5.gif Size: 64 KB
  • #8
  • Dec 8, 2010 6:25am Dec 8, 2010 6:25am
Quoting jiva34
GBPUSD

Very tight stop losses
Just above the spike..

Missed take profit by 1 pip..

The only divergence was a macd divergence on the 1m. and that was pretty shallow...


whats your actual method then ? entry / exit criteria etc ?

and backtest results for the past year ?


regards
  • #9
  • Dec 8, 2010 6:42am Dec 8, 2010 6:42am
Quoting whatfx
whats your actual method then ? entry / exit criteria etc ?

and backtest results for the past year ?


regards
Just started using this. Looked so good I wanted to post so others could try it out too.
This is manual scalping so I'm not sure how I would do a back test???
Check out the .pdf downloads. Self explanatory for how to....
  • #10
  • Edited Dec 9, 2010 1:40am Dec 8, 2010 6:51am | Edited Dec 9, 2010 1:40am
Got back into the GBPUSD short.
Entered little too early before.
Now divergence is clearly seen on the 5m.

+7 pips.

See how the proximity to market opens really makes the prices move..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lucky6.gif Size: 59 KB
  • #11
  • Dec 8, 2010 7:49am Dec 8, 2010 7:49am
jivaaaaaaaa
i'll be with you,
gonna check this out this eve
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #12
  • Dec 8, 2010 11:09am Dec 8, 2010 11:09am
Quoting PhAnTi'
jivaaaaaaaa
i'll be with you,
gonna check this out this eve
Hey, hi.
Never say, die.
  • #13
  • Dec 8, 2010 1:47pm Dec 8, 2010 1:47pm
hi Jiva and all!

do you people have some indi that can show the candle sticks patterns?
jiva do you have the indi that shows the book?

i left here some indis i have, if you people have another please share it!

cheers!
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Candel Sticks.mq4   8 KB | 1,207 downloads
File Type: mq4 Pattern_Recognition.mq4   16 KB | 1,074 downloads
File Type: mq4 Pattern_Recognition_Master_v3.mq4   27 KB | 1,207 downloads
passion and discipline
  • #14
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:42pm Dec 8, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting jiva34
Short intro:

[i]No one can say I'm not determined.
Have started several threads, met some great people...
And boy have I learning a lot!!!
Working like anything to develop an ea really brought home a lot of insight into what works and what doesn't.
The ea is actually decent. But not quite good enough to actually put money into.
Then researching other eas. Having a lot more understanding about what to look for and what to avoid.
Found a couple very good, free, steady winners, passing 10 year backtests with flying colors, 80% win ratio. 120%/year....
Care to share the EA's you referred to in post 1? thank you
  • #15
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:51pm Dec 8, 2010 2:51pm
Yes please jiva! A steady, conservative winner with a decent return is all some of us need to find happinness
  • #16
  • Dec 8, 2010 4:15pm Dec 8, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting Toothman
Care to share the EA's you referred to in post 1? thank you
check out his last project...
but no EAs for this strategy
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #17
  • Dec 8, 2010 5:21pm Dec 8, 2010 5:21pm
I've noticed that many of your spike bars do not qualify under the pdf definition.

It says the body should make up no more that a third of the total candle range.
  • #18
  • Dec 8, 2010 6:36pm Dec 8, 2010 6:36pm
Hi jiva34,

Is this system taking the place of "14.2 Inverse?" You have not been on that thread in a couple of days.

pipsacker
  • #19
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:58am Dec 9, 2010 12:58am
Quoting billbss
I've noticed that many of your spike bars do not qualify under the pdf definition.

It says the body should make up no more that a third of the total candle range.
Yes, you're right. It will take some practice to get this right...
Thanks.

I like this kind of trading.
I used to trade this set up a few years ago with pretty good success just using the indis, but I didn't pay enough attention to the candles.

The candles make all the difference in the world. So I look forward to getting back to this with a new angle of vision.
  • #20
  • Dec 9, 2010 1:10am Dec 9, 2010 1:10am
Quoting pipsacker
Hi jiva34,

Is this system taking the place of "14.2 Inverse?" You have not been on that thread in a couple of days.

pipsacker
Okay, here's the story.
We really killed ourselves putting the Dragon ea together and then experimenting with the contra trade (the inverse). I think we went about as far we could go given our combined abilities.
Which was a pretty good ways.
I think it will take a lot more expertise to really put a successful ea together. Both trading knowledge and coding.
Looking at some of the eas other traders have put together boggles my mind what they are able to do, with money management, and a million other safeguards and enhancements.
So I'm giving ea building a rest.
v14.2 inverse was the last gasp from the Dragon ea project.
I see the basic idea is actually very good and I am also surprised (and not surprised at the same time) to see that other traders have also experimented with the inverse in their strategies with good measure of success.
But it's time for me to give it a break. At somepoint I may get back to it. But for now,
I like this "lucky spike" trade.
I found some very good eas free and am very happy to just let them run on my account while I play with "lucky spike".
Good Luck...
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