'Vegas Wealth Builder Part II' | Page 14 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Vegas Wealth Builder - Part I 535 replies

Vegas Wealth Builder 1 reply

Vegas Wealth Builder 1 reply

Vegas Weath Builder question 1 reply

Question for VEGAS and others using Vegas system..... 2 replies

Attachments: 'Vegas Wealth Builder Part II'
Exit Attachments

'Vegas Wealth Builder Part II'

  • #261
  • Feb 10, 2006 9:59am Feb 10, 2006 9:59am
Quoting vegas
Scott,
Usually when the market starts making a new high on the day past the 60 pip range [assuming I'm long].
Meaning that if we usually enter upon the 50% retracement breakout, you usually move stops to breakever at around 30 pips profit. Is that correct?
  • #262
  • Feb 10, 2006 10:09am Feb 10, 2006 10:09am
Quoting WTB
Meaning that if we usually enter upon the 50% retracement breakout, you usually move stops to breakever at around 30 pips profit. Is that correct?
WTB,
In this specific instance, after the market went up to 1.7491 [the low was 1.7413] that gave us a range of about 80 pips. Half of that puts you at 1.7451. So, a couple of ticks lower at 49 seems a reasonable stop since I'm long at 48.

So it's not really a specific pip number, it's the concept of the 50% retracement rule plus dealing from strength.The fact is, given what the market did, going back to this area more often than not means trouble.
vegas
  • #263
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:08pm Feb 10, 2006 12:08pm
Am I the last guy in the room on a Friday?
vegas
  • #264
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:14pm Feb 10, 2006 12:14pm
Quoting vegas
Am I the last guy in the room on a Friday?
No. Here's a coffee to keep ya goin'
  • #265
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:15pm Feb 10, 2006 12:15pm
On that note Vegas,

Did you ever develop a system/method to catch the cast offs from Weekly traders exiting as it got closer to the Friday Close?
  • #266
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:29pm Feb 10, 2006 12:29pm
Quoting Bemac
On that note Vegas,

Did you ever develop a system/method to catch the cast offs from Weekly traders exiting as it got closer to the Friday Close?
Bemac,
As you know from VWB Part II, the market used to do this every day before electronic trading. The problem with doing it on a weekly basis is that there is just too much time from about Wednesday night to Friday close.

Throw in all the reports that come out on Thurs. and Fri. and it makes it even tougher. I'll give an example. Yesterday's low in Cable at around 1.7380 came [according to my sources] when some CTA's out of Chicago came in and sold a couple of thousand GBP futures. Now, was this pre-weekend jitters, pre-trade balance jitters, or "I'm long and I got these 2 things coming up - what if the trade balance is usd bullish and we get stuck - better push the button now or we won't have the chance tomorrow." You just don't know when they're coming.

So, No I haven't seen anything that correlates that makes sense.
vegas
  • #267
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:30pm Feb 10, 2006 12:30pm
Quoting WTB
How come you didnt get stopped out at breakeven? did you not follow Vegas' second instruction? or did I mess up somehow?
I did, and I just saw that. So what I did this morning when I woke up, I booked half profits since it was around the tunnel on the daily chart. I moved my remaining positions stop loss to break even point, and let it be to what vegas constantly referred to as "A free trade"
  • #268
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:33pm Feb 10, 2006 12:33pm
Quoting Anpar
My tunnel is at 1.7605, did you book half prior to reaching the tunnel?
Yes. That is correct, thats where the tunnel is. However you can't be so strict with it. Vegas said "Around"... not at.
  • #269
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:33pm Feb 10, 2006 12:33pm
Quoting xspowerx
I did, and I just saw that. So what I did this morning when I woke up, I booked half profits since it was around the tunnel on the daily chart. I moved my remaining positions stop loss to break even point, and let it be to what vegas constantly referred to as "A free trade"
xspowerx,

Very glad to here this! High today in Cable was only about 15 pips from tunnel. Close enough for government work, especially when you consider it all came in just a few hours. Nice.
vegas
  • #270
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:43pm Feb 10, 2006 12:43pm
Hey Vegas,

On a Somewhat Seasonal not & for future referance.

Can you put any approximate dates on when the pits started to slow down and susequently pick back up again over the Xmas season?
  • #271
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:49pm Feb 10, 2006 12:49pm
Quoting Bemac
Hey Vegas,

On a Somewhat Seasonal not & for future referance.

Can you put any approximate dates on when the pits started to slow down and susequently pick back up again over the Xmas season?
Bemac,

People started thinning out around the 15th [depending on the weekend] and would usually come back around the 2nd or 3rd week of January.
vegas
  • #272
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:54pm Feb 10, 2006 12:54pm
I had the return dates about right but it seems they started leaving earlier than I suspected.

If you hung around during those times, did you find it easier or harder to trade? ie Was it the Smart guys that left early leaving more dummies for you you to feed off of or harder because of the liquidity?
  • #273
  • Feb 10, 2006 12:57pm Feb 10, 2006 12:57pm
Quoting vegas
xspowerx,

Very glad to here this! High today in Cable was only about 15 pips from tunnel. Close enough for government work, especially when you consider it all came in just a few hours. Nice.
Thanks! Wouldn't have done it without your help. This is the first successful trade I had on my own so far with this model..(not subscribed to C2 yet)

I look forward to reading your pit stories. Any time frame when that will be ready?
  • #274
  • Feb 10, 2006 1:07pm Feb 10, 2006 1:07pm
Quoting xspowerx
Yes. That is correct, thats where the tunnel is. However you can't be so strict with it. Vegas said "Around"... not at.
Great job Xspowerx, I didn't book half until price fell back to 1.7553, at around the same time momentum started picking up a whole bunch to the down side. Still made out alright.
  • #275
  • Feb 10, 2006 1:10pm Feb 10, 2006 1:10pm
Quoting Bemac
I had the return dates about right but it seems they started leaving earlier than I suspected.

If you hung around during those times, did you find it easier or harder to trade? ie Was it the Smart guys that left early leaving more dummies for you you to feed off of or harder because of the liquidity?
Bemac,

Usually just the bottom-feeders around Holiday time. It was harder because the customer order flow dried up, and all you were left with was 10 guys trying to pick each others pocket for a pip in a 6 pip range. After my first year, I was gone from 12/15 - 1/15.

xspowerx,

I think maybe around the Middle of March to first of April, somewhere in that time-frame.
vegas
  • #276
  • Feb 10, 2006 1:11pm Feb 10, 2006 1:11pm
Vegas, would or do you add to your initial positions after a major pull back such as the one today, if you get another entry signal based off of VWB II?
  • #277
  • Edited 1:39pm Feb 10, 2006 1:15pm | Edited 1:39pm
Quoting Anpar
Vegas, would or do you add to your initial positions after a major pull back such as the one today, if you get another entry signal based off of VWB II?
Anpar,

No.

You only get your best trades from the signal reversal. After that the probabilities go down hill. Now, if you get a new signal, then you go with it.

I would add in this edit, that this is true except in the volatile pairs eur/jpy and gbp/usd, where you can get back in because the volatility allows you to.

The only reason I didn't get back in today on the break is because it's Friday and the action has left most accounts awe-struck and unwilling to play. Market has died down considerably since the break.
vegas
  • #278
  • Feb 10, 2006 2:23pm Feb 10, 2006 2:23pm
Quoting vegas
Anpar,

No.

You only get your best trades from the signal reversal. After that the probabilities go down hill. Now, if you get a new signal, then you go with it.

I would add in this edit, that this is true except in the volatile pairs eur/jpy and gbp/usd, where you can get back in because the volatility allows you to.

The only reason I didn't get back in today on the break is because it's Friday and the action has left most accounts awe-struck and unwilling to play. Market has died down considerably since the break.
With that being said, I'm still in the current gbp/usd trade. Prices retraced 50% from the high, so we know that the probability of prices going back to the high is low. If you were still in the trade, would you consider this a day trade at this time?
  • #279
  • Feb 10, 2006 2:28pm Feb 10, 2006 2:28pm
Quoting vegas
cici,
First some general comments on some of the issues you raise.

I never question why the market does what it does. I do not try and "figure out" the market. I concentrate 100% of my energies on implementing my method. If I do that, then I have nothing to complain about, win or lose.

In my files, you will notice an undercurrent that runs in ALL, viz., I trade from strength. What does this mean? It means that winners never become losers, and losers are gotten rid of relatively quickly.

There isn't a set number of pips for stops. Usually it involves the 50% retracement level. If it gets taken out, and then turns around and screams [like today] you just have to accept the fact that your playing a probability game and that these things happen. Just because somebody wins a hand at blackjack, here in Las Vegas, doesn't mean the casino shuts down to figure out what happened.

As far as profits go, my method tells me that in the long-run, my profits are much higher dealing from strength. Do I get bummed when I miss a move? No, it doesn't bother me. Like i said, I only concentrate on my method.

The specific thing I want to address from your comments is that all the points you raise have been dealt with from years of thinking about my method away from market action. Every market scenario you can dream of has been analyzed and thought about by me and others in my group. I don't think there is anything we haven't been exposed to or simulated when we put the method together.

Your comments and insights are good ones, but if you take it to the next level, in your evolution as a trader, I hope you can see that I don't worry about the market.
Holy Cat's Eye Batman! It's a marble game!

Vegas,

I must be related to HeavyJ, because I feel like a bonehead too!

I've been reading and re-reading all your posts trying to get a handle on all this business of trading being like a marble game. I just was not getting it. Then I started thinking about something that Diallist has said a few times on this forum about individual trades and their outcomes are meaningless and that only a series of trades has meaning. I couldn't grasp that either.

For the last few hours, I've been thinking about what you and Diallist have said. I suspected that they were related somehow, but I just couldn't make the connection. But then, and I was just being silly I guess, I started chanting "Meaningless.......Marble", "Meaningless....Marble", "MeaninglessMarbleMeaninglessMarbleMeaninglessMarble" then POW! The light came on and I saw the connection between what you and Diallist had said!

The bag of marbles represents your trading method and is a constantly shifting bag of probabilities. A marble pulled from the bag is a trade and it's color the outcome. I understood all that before, but what I was failing to grasp was that the marble just pulled out of the bag was not a distinct stand alone entity as I had first thought. I'd look at the marble and forget all about the bag. Now I realize that the marble, even though pulled from the bag for examination, is still a part of the rest of the bag of marbles. The single marble is still "connected" to all the other marbles, and it is a probabilistic connection. I further realized that the bag contains an infinite number of marbles, but with a finite ratio of winners to losers. This ratio may vary constantly, but there will always be more winning marbles in the bag than losing marbles, and the marbles are unevenly distributed. There may be clumps of red and clumps of white marbles in parts of the bag, but an even mixture in other parts of the bag. Looking at it that way a "clump" of losing trades should not be discouraging as long as I continue to have faith in the whole bag.

So, when I pull a single marble out of the bag, what does it tell me about all the marbles still in the bag? Nothing, because it is "meaningless"! The single marble can only speak of itself, it cannot speak for the bag. But after pulling a "series" of marbles out of the bag as Diallist has said, then meaning, as it relates to the bag, begins to form. The series of marbles paints a mosaic that is a picture of what is in the bag! And that should serve to increase confidence in the whole bag! Long live the bag!!

I'm sorry for all this rambling, but I'm so excited about my new understanding that I've been pacing the floor for hours now!

Today's GBP trade was one marble and all it told me was it was red. It doesn't matter WHY it was red. It doesn't matter what the market did that made the marble red. That doesn't matter and I shouldn't care, as you have intimated. All I need to do now is say "NEXT!" and grab the next marble. What I DON'T need to be doing is analyzing why the marble was red and is there anything I can do to tweak the system so when this type market action happens again I will get a winning white marble instead! Diallist has told me that doing that will break the edge a system has and I must follow the rules the same way for each trade. I didn't get that before, but I think I do now thanks to your post Vegas.

Perhaps none of the above makes any sense, and I may still have it screwed up, but I've got to say "Thank the Heavens" that people like you and Diallist are willing to share your profession knowledge with us noobs!

Thank you Vegas & Diallist for putting this together for me!

cici
  • #280
  • Feb 10, 2006 2:40pm Feb 10, 2006 2:40pm
Quoting cici
Holy Cat's Eye Batman! It's a marble game!

Vegas,

I must be related to HeavyJ, because I feel like a bonehead too!

I've been reading and re-reading all your posts trying to get a handle on all this business of trading being like a marble game. I just was not getting it. Then I started thinking about something that Diallist has said a few times on this forum about individual trades and their outcomes are meaningless and that only a series of trades has meaning. I couldn't grasp that either.

For the last few hours, I've been thinking about what you and Diallist have said. I suspected that they were related somehow, but I just couldn't make the connection. But then, and I was just being silly I guess, I started chanting "Meaningless.......Marble", "Meaningless....Marble", "MeaninglessMarbleMeaninglessMarbleMeaninglessMarble" then POW! The light came on and I saw the connection between what you and Diallist had said!

The bag of marbles represents your trading method and is a constantly shifting bag of probabilities. A marble pulled from the bag is a trade and it's color the outcome. I understood all that before, but what I was failing to grasp was that the marble just pulled out of the bag was not a distinct stand alone entity as I had first thought. I'd look at the marble and forget all about the bag. Now I realize that the marble, even though pulled from the bag for examination, is still a part of the rest of the bag of marbles. The single marble is still "connected" to all the other marbles, and it is a probabilistic connection. I further realized that the bag contains an infinite number of marbles, but with a finite ratio of winners to losers. This ratio may vary constantly, but there will always be more winning marbles in the bag than losing marbles, and the marbles are unevenly distributed. There may be clumps of red and clumps of white marbles in parts of the bag, but an even mixture in other parts of the bag. Looking at it that way a "clump" of losing trades should not be discouraging as long as I continue to have faith in the whole bag.

So, when I pull a single marble out of the bag, what does it tell me about all the marbles still in the bag? Nothing, because it is "meaningless"! The single marble can only speak of itself, it cannot speak for the bag. But after pulling a "series" of marbles out of the bag as Diallist has said, then meaning, as it relates to the bag, begins to form. The series of marbles paints a mosaic that is a picture of what is in the bag! And that should serve to increase confidence in the whole bag! Long live the bag!!

I'm sorry for all this rambling, but I'm so excited about my new understanding that I've been pacing the floor for hours now!

Today's GBP trade was one marble and all it told me was it was red. It doesn't matter WHY it was red. It doesn't matter what the market did that made the marble red. That doesn't matter and I shouldn't care, as you have intimated. All I need to do now is say "NEXT!" and grab the next marble. What I DON'T need to be doing is analyzing why the marble was red and is there anything I can do to tweak the system so when this type market action happens again I will get a winning white marble instead! Diallist has told me that doing that will break the edge a system has and I must follow the rules the same way for each trade. I didn't get that before, but I think I do now thanks to your post Vegas.

Perhaps none of the above makes any sense, and I may still have it screwed up, but I've got to say "Thank the Heavens" that people like you and Diallist are willing to share your profession knowledge with us noobs!

Thank you Vegas & Diallist for putting this together for me!

cici
cici,
I think you just arrived at the next level.

Your thought process was a lot like mine 25 years ago. Suddenly, you just get it, and you wonder why it took so long.

When I first was sorting all this out, it took me about 4 months to really get it in my head. Then one day, everything worked as planned and I knew from that moment forward nothing would ever be the same.

What a great post. Thanks for sharing it so others can see it.
vegas
0 traders viewing now