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4H Crossover (Swing Trading)

  • #101
  • Dec 7, 2010 10:03am Dec 7, 2010 10:03am
Quoting sburtonhome
Are you still in the GBPCHF trade? If not, curious as to when you got out. I am still in it. 1.5223 or bust! :-)
I actually got out of it on Friday at 1.5550 after 1.5450 was rejected. Still made 100 pips profit but left quite a few on the table as the pair tumbled shortly after.
However, my gameplan was to exit if the 1.5450 level was rejected which it was initially. Even with the current price the trend is still down so your trade still look favourable! I am currently short USD/JPY @ 82.80 and USD/CAD @ 1.0065.
  • #102
  • Dec 7, 2010 11:05am Dec 7, 2010 11:05am
Are you sure that USD/JPY was a valid short? I don't see it having touched the 21ma on the pullback. At least not on my platform.

thx,
todd

Quoting Tw257
I actually got out of it on Friday at 1.5550 after 1.5450 was rejected. Still made 100 pips profit but left quite a few on the table as the pair tumbled shortly after.
However, my gameplan was to exit if the 1.5450 level was rejected which it was initially. Even with the current price the trend is still down so your trade still look favourable! I am currently short USD/JPY @ 82.80 and USD/CAD @ 1.0065.
  • #103
  • Dec 7, 2010 11:22am Dec 7, 2010 11:22am
Quoting todd960960
Are you sure that USD/JPY was a valid short? I don't see it having touched the 21ma on the pullback. At least not on my platform.

thx,
todd
I haven't entered the USDJPY yet because of that reason. It is easy to get anxious about entering what looks like a sure trade but after thousands of backtests I came to the conclusion that it is well worth waiting for a proper pullback before entering.
  • #104
  • Dec 7, 2010 1:58pm Dec 7, 2010 1:58pm
What are the MACD settings and signals for traders who dont trade with MT4?
  • #105
  • Dec 7, 2010 2:30pm Dec 7, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting sburtonhome
I have created and uploaded a 10 minute video detailing the trade rules and showing 4 examples.

1) A break-even trade
2) A typical losing trade
3) A typical winning trade
4) A no-entry signal

You can check out the video here.
Hi there

Just watched the video, nice work, now I'm going to watch it again.

Thanks
Marshy.
“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #106
  • Edited 4:15pm Dec 7, 2010 3:40pm | Edited 4:15pm
On your video the example were there was a loss...so as soon as the ema crosses over in the direction against your trade then you get out correct? Or would you get out if price closed above or below the 89 if the trade went against you?
  • #107
  • Dec 7, 2010 5:33pm Dec 7, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting ferndog
On your video the example were there was a loss...so as soon as the ema crosses over in the direction against your trade then you get out correct? Or would you get out if price closed above or below the 89 if the trade went against you?
Correct, as soon as the 21 EMA crosses over the 89 SMA signaling a change in the direction of the trend (and the 4H candle closes), then I exit.
  • #108
  • Dec 7, 2010 5:35pm Dec 7, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting marshy
Hi there

Just watched the video, nice work, now I'm going to watch it again.

Thanks
Marshy.
Thanks. I hope the visual examples help. Now that I have figured out how to make the videos, I will make another one or two to provide additional examples. I have taken hundreds of these trades (either live or backtraded) and there are sometimes fuzzy entries. I will show you what I do in those situations.
  • #109
  • Dec 7, 2010 5:56pm Dec 7, 2010 5:56pm
If we have missed a 21 EMA/89 SMA cross and the initial retracement to the 21 EMA, can we still enter at the next retracement to the 21 EMA as long as the trend is continuing?
  • #110
  • Dec 7, 2010 6:21pm Dec 7, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting The7
What are the MACD settings and signals for traders who dont trade with MT4?
Fast EMA = 5
Slow EMA = 13
  • #111
  • Dec 7, 2010 6:25pm Dec 7, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting the-game
If we have missed a 21 EMA/89 SMA cross and the initial retracement to the 21 EMA, can we still enter at the next retracement to the 21 EMA as long as the trend is continuing?
One of the things I like about this system is that it is not the end of the world if you don't get in right when you are suppose to. If an opportunity comes up to get in after the "signaled" entry point (either upon a second retracement or if price is still within reach of entry point) then I still enter. One of the objectives of this system is to be able to trade and live your life at the same time. Sometimes life keeps you from checking every 4 hour candle and therefore if you get an opportunity to get in I say take it.

Any comments from others? Where am I going wrong with this line of thought?
  • #112
  • Dec 7, 2010 6:30pm Dec 7, 2010 6:30pm
So I'm guessing you have done this yourself
  • #113
  • Dec 7, 2010 6:33pm Dec 7, 2010 6:33pm
Also, what if the price retraces but not enough to 'touch' the 21 EMA?

Can we still enter or is this a sign to stay out?
  • #114
  • Dec 7, 2010 6:45pm Dec 7, 2010 6:45pm
I have full-time job, & family...can't be on screen too often. Your method fits my needs. I ve been looking at USDJPY...now the price is hitting 89sma. What's your view? Thanks mrgintz
  • #115
  • Dec 7, 2010 7:12pm Dec 7, 2010 7:12pm
Quoting the-game
So I'm guessing you have done this yourself
Hehe...Yes - more often than I like to admit. If you follow my trade log you will notice times when my entry comes hours or even a day or more after the signal candle. It sometimes even plays into my favor.
  • #116
  • Dec 7, 2010 7:22pm Dec 7, 2010 7:22pm
Quoting the-game
Also, what if the price retraces but not enough to 'touch' the 21 EMA?

Can we still enter or is this a sign to stay out?
This is one of those situations where my rule "the rules are made to be broken" comes into play. The rules say to wait for an actual 21 EMA "touch". However, if I see retracement back towards the 21 without a touch and then a continuation of the trend I will check the D1. If the D1 confirms a strong trend I might enter.

Lets take a look at the recent USDJPY as an example. I specifically waited for a touch before entering there because the bearish 4H trend conflicted with the bullish D1 trend. The touch has since come but price continues to climb and it looks like we may see a 21/89 cross long in the next couple of days. This may very well be an example of how waiting for the touch saved a loss.
  • #117
  • Dec 7, 2010 7:26pm Dec 7, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting mrgintz
I have full-time job, & family...can't be on screen too often. Your method fits my needs. I ve been looking at USDJPY...now the price is hitting 89sma. What's your view? Thanks mrgintz
If the 89 holds and then it continues its short trend I will enter short so long as price closes below the 21. However, if I were to guess (and I'm often wrong when I do), I would say that it will push through the 89 and we will see a 21/89 cross long without triggering the short entry.
  • #118
  • Dec 7, 2010 8:06pm Dec 7, 2010 8:06pm
EMA c/o happened , price pulled back to touch 21 EMA, now started going up in long direction. if the current bar closes above 21 EMA and MACD turns green, we can enter LONG

Is that true ?

thanks a lot for the great video
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  • #119
  • Dec 7, 2010 8:11pm Dec 7, 2010 8:11pm
Quoting sburtonhome
This is one of those situations where my rule "the rules are made to be broken" comes into play. The rules say to wait for an actual 21 EMA "touch". However, if I see retracement back towards the 21 without a touch and then a continuation of the trend I will check the D1. If the D1 confirms a strong trend I might enter.

Lets take a look at the recent USDJPY as an example. I specifically waited for a touch before entering there because the bearish 4H trend conflicted with the bullish D1 trend. The touch has since come but price continues...
Okay, I've tried this exact same setup on EU just 1.5 hours ago

I'll let you know how it plays out.
  • #120
  • Dec 7, 2010 8:12pm Dec 7, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting roundrock
EMA c/o happened , price pulled back to touch 21 EMA, now started going up in long direction. if the current bar closes above 21 EMA and MACD turns green, we can enter LONG

Is that true ?

thanks a lot for the great video
I've been looking at that one too
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