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AUD/USD

  • #25,621
  • Dec 2, 2010 8:25am Dec 2, 2010 8:25am
9630 is still being a pain. Price bounced right off of it again.

Not sure why I took a 4h trade on a/u, price never seems to go anywhere very fast. Makes decent gains then gives them all back.
  • #25,622
  • Dec 2, 2010 8:32am Dec 2, 2010 8:32am
Quoting Venice
9630 is still being a pain. Price bounced right off of it again.

Not sure why I took a 4h trade on a/u, price never seems to go anywhere very fast. Makes decent gains then gives them all back.
Ya think its the grand wipe and wash before the strong upward push?
  • #25,623
  • Dec 2, 2010 8:34am Dec 2, 2010 8:34am
Quoting denewbie
Ya think its the grand wipe and wash before the strong upward push?
I don't know really; a/u never trades nicely for me. I'm still biased short over the long term so I have shorts loaded.
  • #25,624
  • Dec 2, 2010 9:00am Dec 2, 2010 9:00am
And there went my stop.
  • #25,625
  • Dec 2, 2010 9:11am Dec 2, 2010 9:11am
Quoting SugarTrade
Long @ .9637, target is .97343
Good enough, nearly got stopped out there ;;
  • #25,626
  • Dec 2, 2010 9:22am Dec 2, 2010 9:22am
Hmmm I expect serious resistance at 9750-9760...

Reason: 20 & 50 daily EMAs are there, and is the 50% fibo of the drop since 22Nov.

But .9800 (61.8% fibo) can be the temporary top, though.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,627
  • Dec 2, 2010 9:26am Dec 2, 2010 9:26am
Quoting denewbie
Ya think its the grand wipe and wash before the strong upward push?
deff a shakeout strong outside wave with internal capitulation .. we should progress i dunno how quickly tho its still being squeezed these are some decisive points for traders..
  • #25,628
  • Dec 2, 2010 9:46am Dec 2, 2010 9:46am
Took a short at 0.974, aiming for a 30% retrace since its hitting another resistance. SL at 0.9755
  • #25,629
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:47am Dec 2, 2010 10:47am
Quoting FX-Petra
added another long last night @ 9550....closed it at 9650. Still holding 96 and 9820. This push up is a nice start. Would feel better if we could close today above 97. I have made some good money on this retrace from the highs even though I have stayed long. I can now put my s/l @ 9350 and still be in profit from this series of trades. Still holding for 9850. Good trades to all....

Regards,

ps--we could be setting up for a bullish outside day candle (although personally I have found this as an unreliable indicator)
9850 approaches. While not yet in the bag...I have moved stops to BE + 10.... and I have loaded my Jeff Buckley "Hallelujah" CD just in case it hits!
Inserted Video


Good trades to all!

Regards,
  • #25,630
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:47am Dec 2, 2010 10:47am
Grats FX-Petra, today is sure to have made your positions great winners.
  • #25,631
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:48am Dec 2, 2010 10:48am
Uff this is strong...

I also just noticed that the bottom can be considered an inverted H&S (at 4H).

Theorical target: 9850
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,632
  • Dec 2, 2010 11:02am Dec 2, 2010 11:02am
Might be the top for the day, just tapped some mega resistance on my screen, but I'm honestly afraid to go short, and it wouldn't be a trade I could sleep well carrying.
  • #25,633
  • Dec 2, 2010 1:56pm Dec 2, 2010 1:56pm
9840ish (don't expect precision) as the previous multi year high, counts for something and is possibly the intermediate target.
Now i know a lot of traders don't think much of them, and that is fine by me, but, from a fib point of view the short target for that down run was going to be either 9533 or 9307.
If another short is offered around 9840 the target could be 9400.
Not predicting, but having these scenarios in mind helps, when, and if ,price behaves appropriately at these levels.
Biggest joker
  • #25,634
  • Dec 2, 2010 3:09pm Dec 2, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting baron193
If another short is offered around 9840 the target could be 9400.
100% agreed
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,635
  • Dec 2, 2010 4:13pm Dec 2, 2010 4:13pm
pair made a clear Head and Shoulders Top on the Daily chart, and is now correcting to continue it's downward move to 0.93 after hitting the neckline at 0.9780. Direction is down unless we have a day closing above 0.98.
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  • #25,636
  • Dec 2, 2010 4:46pm Dec 2, 2010 4:46pm
It will be very interesting to watch Tokyo tonight (for me, CST). They usually don't like being handed the tail of the dog, and will often make new highs, seemingly to make a point. I am no guru, and this thing could fall big time tomorrw, but I doubt it. Why? US stocks have a bias to the upside for at least 5 or 6 more working days. Fund managers who have under performed will be looking to improve their year end bottm lines.... and shorting US equites this year will has been very painful. Dow 11,500-700 before year end is really not that far fetched considering year end demand for equities. As long as equties are moving up, it is hard to envision A/U going down very much.... in the short term at least.

Don't take this as gospel. It is always a gamble.

Regards,
  • #25,637
  • Dec 2, 2010 9:09pm Dec 2, 2010 9:09pm
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting harrisle
pair made a clear Head and Shoulders Top on the Daily chart, and is now correcting to continue it's downward move to 0.93 after hitting the neckline at 0.9780. Direction is down unless we have a day closing above 0.98.
I was following that pattern and would like to agree with you but I believe it has failed, although tonights action will be interesting. The recent activity is either a bull trap or we have been experiencing a pull back.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #25,638
  • Dec 2, 2010 10:00pm Dec 2, 2010 10:00pm
H & S on daily and a floor established on 4Hr provide two conflicting scenarios. But a pull-back would certainly warrant a skillfully managed shot at a long.
  • #25,639
  • Edited 10:24pm Dec 2, 2010 10:21pm | Edited 10:24pm
It would be nice and simple if it dropped to 9700 before a long to 98....
Unfortunately things are usually not this simple anymore, markets change and we have to try and keep up with them.
It used to the case that action was slow before an NFP, might not be so tonight.
Biggest joker
  • #25,640
  • Dec 3, 2010 12:10am Dec 3, 2010 12:10am
Interesting to note how the RBA and the Australian press etc had been going on and on about how the Australian banks had been so smart in dodging any bullets concerning their solvency in regards to the GFC.It now appears that 2 of the 'big 4' namely NAB and Westpac both had to get emergency funding from the US Fed.

None of this had been disclosed prior to the FED releasing it's funding arrangements to foreign banks the other day.

Shareholders left to wonder re disclosure again!!
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