Killthebee Market Outlook | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Auction Market Theory and Market Profile 26,026 replies

market Theory 101 Supply and Demand,Market Cycles 7 replies

Market Makers or Market Gamers? 0 replies

Market Size (S+P 500 compared to Forex Market?) 0 replies

Time in the Market, Beats Timing the Market? Does this work in FX?? 7 replies

Attachments: Killthebee Market Outlook
Exit Attachments

Killthebee Market Outlook

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 26, 2010 6:28pm Nov 26, 2010 6:28pm
Hi guys,

I'm newbie in forex trading. I'm still in my phase of learning and I want to share some market analysis and my trading plan.

My 5 principles which build trading method are:

 

  1. MOMENTUM of price
  2. SUPPLY-DEMAND level
  3. Good REWARD/RISK
  4. TRADE MANAGEMENT
  5. MONEY MANAGEMENT


Your advices, comments, and critics are very appreciated.

-CN-

  • #2
  • Nov 26, 2010 7:04pm Nov 26, 2010 7:04pm
Looking at AUDUSD market, I only see one clear opportunity to trade in early next week (not very convincing though).

1st Chart shows H1 TF,
See, the little sign of supply zone which coincidence with previous support.

 

  1. (+) BIG Momentum down from supply level
  2. (+) PREVIOUS SUPPORT
  3. (+) 1st RETURN to level
  4. (+) If enter at 0.9700, have >3 REWARD/RISK

  1. (-) BIG time frame in UPTREND

I'll remind myself to make confirmation entry when price come back to
ENTRY : 0.9700
STOP L : 0.9720 (20 pips)
PROFIT : 0.9636 (64 pips)

CONFIRMATION i'll use:
STOCHASTIC, PRICE ACTION, Let price enter the level and SELL when it leaves the zone.



2nd chart shows if the price go low, it probably retrace in TARGET 2 at 0.9540.
This is the previous demand zone. Will look at buy opportunity in the future.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_101126_limit_sell_0.9700.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_101126_limit_sell_0.9700(2).gif Size: 36 KB
  • #3
  • Nov 27, 2010 4:17am Nov 27, 2010 4:17am
Seems like a very good plan, i'm still learning too, but i have one note - i think stop loss should be higher than 0.9720.
0.9718 is H4 and D1 candle close of last support (now resistance) and on H1, M30 and smaller TF price tested 0.9718 before further drop, so i think when price returns it has chance come again to 0.9718 or even spike it for few pips, so just watch out on your stop loss.
Good luck.
  • #4
  • Nov 29, 2010 8:12am Nov 29, 2010 8:12am
Quoting killthebee
Looking at AUDUSD market, I only see one clear opportunity to trade in early next week (not very convincing though).

1st Chart shows H1 TF,
See, the little sign of supply zone which coincidence with previous support.

 

  1. (+) BIG Momentum down from supply level
  2. (+) PREVIOUS SUPPORT
  3. (+) 1st RETURN to level
  4. (+) If enter at 0.9700, have >3 REWARD/RISK

  1. (-) BIG time frame in UPTREND

I'll remind myself to make confirmation entry when price come back to
ENTRY...

Wow.. Not good today . The price retrace to 0.9699. NO TRADE!

Now is interesting, price are in current support level. Let's see if the breakdown happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_101126_limit_sell_0.9700(review).gif Size: 36 KB
  • #5
  • Nov 29, 2010 4:36pm Nov 29, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting killthebee
Hi guys,

I'm newbie in forex trading. I'm still in my phase of learning and I want to share some market analysis and my trading plan.

My 5 principles which build trading method are:

 

  1. MOMENTUM of price
  2. SUPPLY-DEMAND level
  3. Good REWARD/RISK
  4. TRADE MANAGEMENT
  5. MONEY MANAGEMENT


Your advices, comments, and critics are very appreciated.

-CN-

I'm so happy that you're on the right track!

Focusing on momentum is extremely attractive, but did not work for me.

Supply and demand is how prices move. This is the most important of all of the things you listed.

Risk:Reward good trade management go hand in hand for me as part of my money management strategy. This is another very important thing to keep in mind.

Everyone is different, but I personally am the most consistent and profitable when I have zero indicators (including moving averages) on my screen. Volume is the only thing worth while you can add to your chart in my experience.

You're off to a great start, don't get distracted by some of the wacky stuff that you will see on here.
  • #6
  • Nov 29, 2010 5:42pm Nov 29, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting killthebee
Wow.. Not good today . The price retrace to 0.9699. NO TRADE!

Now is interesting, price are in current support level. Let's see if the breakdown happen.
It happens! What this means is that your analysis was correct, so don't be dismayed and look at the positives from this missed trade. Do not rue over missed opportunities as many more will present themselves over and over and over and over... (I think you get the drift... lol)

I got in the trade as my entry was a little lower which you can see on priceaction's thread. Try to avoid using round numbers for entry and exits.

I wish you success with your trading!
  • #7
  • Dec 1, 2010 10:36am Dec 1, 2010 10:36am
Quoting frankkn
I'm so happy that you're on the right track!

Focusing on momentum is extremely attractive, but did not work for me.

Supply and demand is how prices move....

Thanks for the input frank.

Actually stochastic I use is only to give additional confirmation of my entry. Since indicator is usually very fluctuated, most of the time I only
consider the OB/OS which also demand/supply level as you said.

How does the volume play any contribution to your analysis??
  • #8
  • Dec 1, 2010 10:48am Dec 1, 2010 10:48am
Quoting bbakker
It happens! What this means is that your analysis was correct, so don't be dismayed and look at the positives from this missed trade. Do not rue over missed opportunities as many more will present themselves over and over and over and over... (I think you get the drift... lol)

I got in the trade as my entry was a little lower which you can see on priceaction's thread. Try to avoid using round numbers for entry and exits.

I wish you success with your trading!
Yes, it's the beauty of supply-demand trading man

I put my entry a little higher when I sell and vice versa to try minimize the SL with still consider the ability of price reach the interest level. I'm still not familiar to market behavior, so I'm better play more conservatively lowest risk.

My personal MOST DIFFICULT challenge (and I think this is common to beginner) is to try keep myself away from market when price configuration isn't perfect.
  • #9
  • Dec 1, 2010 11:02am Dec 1, 2010 11:02am
I think my entry is tricky here.

This is the chart of USDJPY H1. Now I see the price return to supply level as it observed to drop from 84.30 in Nov 29.

 

  1. (+) 1st RETURN to level
  2. (+) If enter at 84.24, have >3 REWARD/RISK
  3. (+) Longer TF (daily) downtrend

  1. (-) FAIR Momentum down from supply level

ENTRY : 84.20
STOP L : 84.42 (22 pips)
PROFIT : 83.52 (68 pips)


[UPDATE] Price move down to 22 pips, move SL=0 to eliminate risk.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_101201_1826_sell.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #10
  • Dec 1, 2010 11:09am Dec 1, 2010 11:09am
Quoting killthebee

2nd chart shows if the price go low, it probably retrace in TARGET 2 at 0.9540.
This is the previous demand zone. Will look at buy opportunity in the future.
Today, we saw AUDUSD price comedown to 0.9536 and rally.

Unfortunately, I didn't get the chance to make confirmation entry.
  • #11
  • Dec 2, 2010 8:24am Dec 2, 2010 8:24am
This is my limit entry for EURUSD, wish me luck.

 

  1. (+) Strong MOMENTUM leave the supply zone
  2. (+) Have >3 REWARD/RISK
  3. (+) Longer TF DOWNTREND
  4. (+) Previous support level

  1. (-) 3rd RETURN to level

ENTRY : 1.3286
STOP L : 1.3310 (24 pips)
PROFIT : 1.3178 (108 pips)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_101202_limit_sell_1.3286(1).gif Size: 35 KB
  • #12
  • Dec 2, 2010 9:33am Dec 2, 2010 9:33am
Quoting killthebee
I think my entry is tricky here.
ENTRY : 84.20
STOP L : 84.42 (22 pips)
PROFIT : 83.52 (68 pips)


[UPDATE] Price move down to 22 pips, move SL=0 to eliminate risk.
Price was rejected from this supply zone. However, it didn't have much energy to move down farther to 83.52.

It meets new support near 83.95, fortunately TRADE MANAGEMENT throw away all my risk in this position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_101201_1826_sell(review).gif Size: 40 KB
  • #13
  • Aug 31, 2011 6:20am Aug 31, 2011 6:20am
Today on AUDUSD which still on longterm bullish, trend weakened from early this week but I think still can make some profit.

INSTANT ENTRY at 1.0666
STOP LOSS at 1.0650
PROFIT TARGET at 1.0704
Reward to Risk = 38/16 = 2.3

also potential for longterm trade LIMIT ENTRY at 1.0618
STOP LOSS at 1.0606
PROFIT TARGET at 1.0758
Reward to Risk = 140/12 = 11.6
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h1 110831.gif Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4 110831.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #14
  • Last Post: Aug 31, 2011 6:42am Aug 31, 2011 6:42am
EURUSD are making triangle pattern now. I'm gambling on

INSTANT ENTRY at 1.4432
STOP LOSS at 1.4414
PROFIT TARGET at 1.4462
Reward to Risk = 30/18 = 1.6 (very tight)

also LIMIT ENTRY at 1.4384 if the price falls
STOP LOSS at 1.4374
PROFIT TARGET 1.4415
Reward to Risk = 30/10 = 3

I input BUY STOP at 1.4469
STOP LOSS at 1.4458
PROFIT TARGET at 1.4490
Reward to Risk = 21/11 = 2
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd m30 110831.gif Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h1 110831.gif Size: 41 KB
0 traders viewing now