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  • #14,861
  • Nov 28, 2010 11:35am Nov 28, 2010 11:35am
Quoting sf73
Analysis

Boss: confirmed HHs (1,3) & confirmed HL (2). Price bounced of round number 1.34ish & closed 100 pips higher above round number 1.35. Last week immediate trend down.

Worker: BUOB with confirmation worker and boss immediate trend in harmony.

Plan:

Two buy orders by $1 at 1.3557
Stop loss at 1.3417 with Risk: 140 pips or $280
First position profit taking at 1.3667 Reward: 100 pips or $100
[size=2]Move second position to break even at 1.3457 trailing the stop loss targeting at least above...

My data is slightly different from yours, but immediate trend of boss is still down and just completed a BEEB. On the worker, it just broke the uptrend line, EMA 20 is below 50. Even though the worker just formed a BUOB, it has immediate resistance of uptrend line and 1.3670. I think I would wait for it to retest these resistance first and look for a short trade.
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  • #14,862
  • Nov 28, 2010 1:55pm Nov 28, 2010 1:55pm
I've been wondering if this is the setup for a short trade. Here is my analysis:

Boss:
1. Bounces off resistance around 1.5840
2. Just completed a BEEB.
3. Immediate trend = DOWN

Worker:
1. Also formed a BEEB.
2. Broke uptrend line (depends on how you draw it too)
3. Close below worker's EMA 50
4. Boss EMA 20 seems to be current resistance as well.
5. Immediate trend = DOWN

Both immediate trend of worker and boss align. The next support is around 1.5460 and I am not sure if I should consider it a major or minor support (or does it really matter?) If I take this short trade, where should my stop loss be?

Here is my plan, please comment:
1. Short 20 pips below the low of last bar (1.5605)
2. Stop loss 20 pips above resistance 1.5800 round number (1.5820)
3. Break even after 100 pips
4. First target around support 1.5460 for 150 pips
5. Second target 300 pips
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  • #14,863
  • Nov 28, 2010 4:49pm Nov 28, 2010 4:49pm
I just looked at AUDUSD and thought that I have missed a trade on last Friday. Not sure if this is a valid Strat's trade, so here is my analysis:

Boss:
1. Short term trend = UP
2. Immediate trend = DOWN
3. BEOB was still forming before Friday (Nov 26) and closed below SR 0.9834.

Worker:
1. Immediate trend = DOWN
2. Nov 23 closed below worker EMA 50
3. Nov 24 is a bullish inside bar trying to penetrate resistance 0.9843.
4. Nov 25 is a bearish inside bar and close below worker EMA 50 again.

For the worker, the immediate trend of boss and worker align and it seems that 0.9843 became a resistance level where buyers are unable to penetrate and was pushed down to close before EMA 50 the second time. Therefore, I think I should have short below the low of the Nov 25 candle.

Did anyone take this trade?
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  • #14,864
  • Edited 8:56am Nov 29, 2010 7:32am | Edited 8:56am
Quoting vienna_wein
Did anyone take this trade?
Yes I took a short trade last week, may be adding to this short at the end of this month. Look at how the BIG BOSS closes in a few days it's looking like a beautiful PASR trade but it has not closed yet? Play it safe.
  • #14,865
  • Edited Nov 30, 2010 6:51am Nov 29, 2010 7:26pm | Edited Nov 30, 2010 6:51am
29 November


AUDUSD Long


Weekly – 1) Hammer which tested and rejected S at both 0.9626 and 0.9566.


2) Long lower wick indicates that sellers were not able to hold lower prices in face of buyers.


Monthly – 1) An SS like BEEB ( with 1 day to go before the end of the month)


2) Tested and rejected 2 S lines at 0.9565 and 0.9626


3) Up trend momentum line intact.


Daily – 1) Hammer


2) Tested and rejected S at 0.9626 and 0.9565


Significant or not?

Price has made a low, and an unconfirmed swing low, simultaneously on the 3 TFs at 0.9565


3) This hammer satisfies the requirements for a valid basic Long PASR trade on the Decision Making Aid provided the entry is made above the R line at 0.9718, about 20 pips above the high of the 29 November bar.



4) The lower up trend momentum line ( thin green) tested and rejected by both the last 2 daily bars.


Summary: 1) The Boss and Worker are in sync in every way.


2) They are not in sync with the Big Boss which is always takes longer to line up with the B and W.


3) Trading off a hammer is always counter to the Immediate trend, and is therefore a higher risk trade which should be confirmed before entering. The possibility always exists, that it may prove to be a Bond hammer.
4) Purely from a technical point of view, and not taking any fundamental factors into account (or, alternatively, assuming that all the fundamental factors are already taken into account in price) the pull back from the 5 November high is over, and price is ready to rise again.


Comments please?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #14,866
  • Nov 29, 2010 8:43pm Nov 29, 2010 8:43pm
[quote=No1Optimist;4207627]29 November


AUDUSD Long
3) This hammer satisfies the requirements for a Long on the Decision Making Aid provided the entry is made above the R line at 0.9718,

NO1,

I see your analysis, yet the R at the .9700 area concerns me. It pounded on it as support and finally broke through. Agree with the overall trend being up,but seems to be getting weaker. Cant say your wrong though, I'm a big chicken lately.

Poncho
" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #14,867
  • Nov 29, 2010 9:26pm Nov 29, 2010 9:26pm
I would like to thank Money Magnet, Simpleman, Spinner & Vienna Wein for your thoughts regarding eurcad. The BUOB was false alert.
  • #14,868
  • Nov 29, 2010 9:34pm Nov 29, 2010 9:34pm
I agree AUDUSD is at support but I see Big Boss, Boss and Worker all in sync. SHORT!

I see no buyers yet and wouldn't dare go long.

Hope Strat doesn't send me back to page 1 .

Cheers,
JS
  • #14,869
  • Nov 30, 2010 12:14am Nov 30, 2010 12:14am
Quoting No1Optimist

Comments please?
My data for worker is a bit different and does not show a hammer, but it shows that the Nov 29 bar bounces off BOSS's EMA20. We will have to see how strong this dynamic support is. However, the immediate trend of both boss and worker is DOWN, so I am not yet convince that the downtrend is over.
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  • #14,870
  • Nov 30, 2010 12:37am Nov 30, 2010 12:37am
It looks like it is setup for a short trade:

Boss:
1. Immediate trend = DOWN
2. Price broke through double bottom

Worker:
1. Immediate trend = DOWN
2. Price closed below double bottom few days ago, then went back and closed above it. The bar on Nov 29 formed a BEOB and closed below the double bottom SR again.

Therefore, I think it is setup for a short trade below the low of bar on Nov 29.

My plan:
1. Short 20 pips below the low of Nov 29 (1.3590).
2. Stop loss 20 pips above the high of Nov 29 which is an unconfirmed swing high.
3. Not exactly sure where take profit should be set as it is making new low. I probably would set 200 pips and 300 pips as targets. Does anyone know how to trade this?

One question I have is : Is the new low 1.3563 consider a support at this point?

I would really appreciate for any comment. Thanks!
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  • #14,871
  • Nov 30, 2010 1:49am Nov 30, 2010 1:49am
Quoting euro_dude
I agree AUDUSD is at support but I see Big Boss, Boss and Worker all in sync. SHORT!

I see no buyers yet and wouldn't dare go long.

Hope Strat doesn't send me back to page 1 .

Cheers,
JS

Correct!
He won't. AUDUSD Long is good for liquidity

Greek Bouncer
  • #14,872
  • Edited 7:00am Nov 30, 2010 6:43am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting No1Optimist
29 November
AUDUSD Long
Comments please?
No1Optimist, to me it looks like Head and Shoulders with an "extended" left shoulder and a potential drop to 0.92 more than a buy opportunity.
  • #14,873
  • Nov 30, 2010 7:00am Nov 30, 2010 7:00am
Quoting vienna_wein
It looks like it is setup for a short trade:
One question I have is : Is the new low 1.3563 consider a support at this point?
As this is a new low, support has yet to be determined. Only time will show the next support area it could be further down than this as a new low could be made yet?
  • #14,874
  • Nov 30, 2010 7:06am Nov 30, 2010 7:06am
Quoting vienna_wein
One question I have is : Is the new low 1.3563 consider a support at this point?
I would really appreciate for any comment. Thanks!
i would think this is a support for now because we don't have anything else there so every trader in the world will be looking at that low now.
it seems like a breakout trade to me, which is riskier than a pullback, but if that is your style then you are correct.
  • #14,875
  • Nov 30, 2010 2:20pm Nov 30, 2010 2:20pm
[quote=poncho1;4207745]
Quoting No1Optimist
29 November


AUDUSD Long
3) This hammer satisfies the requirements for a Long on the Decision Making Aid provided the entry is made above the R line at 0.9718,

NO1,

I see your analysis, yet the R at the .9700 area concerns me. It pounded on it as support and finally broke through. Agree with the overall trend being up,but seems to be getting weaker. Cant say your wrong though, I'm a big chicken lately.

Poncho
A Hammer is a price reversal bar.

If a hammer is used as the signal bar for PASR trading it is always going to be counter to the immediate down trend, because it signals a long position after price has been trending down.

That is why it is more risky to trade than a BUEB or BUOB.

That is also the reason there should be extra confirmation before entering the trade. For example, a previous level of R has become a new level of S.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #14,876
  • Nov 30, 2010 10:17pm Nov 30, 2010 10:17pm
[quote=No1Optimist;4210430]
Quoting poncho1

That is why it is more risky to trade than a BUEB or BUOB.
Agreed, but it might not be stress free either.
  • #14,877
  • Nov 30, 2010 10:21pm Nov 30, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting kalvind
As this is a new low, support has yet to be determined. Only time will show the next support area it could be further down than this as a new low could be made yet?
Thanks kalvind. I guess I will have to watch price action to see when to exit if it doesn't hit my preset targets.
  • #14,878
  • Nov 30, 2010 10:23pm Nov 30, 2010 10:23pm
Quoting zzz
i would think this is a support for now because we don't have anything else there so every trader in the world will be looking at that low now.
it seems like a breakout trade to me, which is riskier than a pullback, but if that is your style then you are correct.
Thanks zzz. I am not sure if this is considered a breakout trade since it did pullback from new low and then a price action BUEB/BUOB below support.
  • #14,879
  • Dec 1, 2010 5:23am Dec 1, 2010 5:23am
I prepared a check list below based on Strat's PASR.
Please comment...
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc PASR CHECKLIST.doc   62 KB | 921 downloads
  • #14,880
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:52am Dec 1, 2010 8:52am
Quoting sf73
I prepared a check list below based on Strat's PASR.
Please comment...
Questions:
1. Does "Highs & Lows" means higher high and higher low OR lower high and lower low?
2. What does "Price out of 21 & 55" mean?

For the past few days, it has problem breaking through resistance 1.0055 in Big Boss, Boss and Worker TF. Don't you think it might be safer to see it close above this first to avoid a false breakout? Your entry point sounds like to me that it is a breakout trade.
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