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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #81,001
  • Nov 27, 2010 10:48pm Nov 27, 2010 10:48pm
Quoting novice198
Hi Jarroo, Any reason why some other Hi / Lo levels are being ignored as shown by me.
Cheers
Novice 198


Good timing Nov.

It kind of fits in with the post I made about the same pair quite coincidentally.
  • #81,002
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:23pm Nov 27, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting ghous
Loved the way the post ended, shows you're right on track!

The idea of passing on this setup is very clearly a mature one. There is nothing there "in the context of the ongoing PA" that would make the PA setup tradable.

Welcome to the group Dave, and we look forward to more of your super analysis, thoughts and trades.

g.
Thanks very much, Ghous! That gives me a lot of confidence. I've been reading very carefully for the last month or so; not even demo trading.

One question that still bothers me - and I see it Novice198's post as well - At times it seems that I could draw a PPZ from the top or bottom of just about any bar and have it hit a S/R flip. I know this isn't true, and patience will reveal some of the "better" PPZs - but can you (or any of the other senior folks) offer any thoughts on how you distinguish a good/strong PPZ from a more transient one?

Thanks!

--Dave
  • #81,003
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:25pm Nov 27, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting Pinbar
Welcome Dave.

Very nice analysis, crisp and clear and no ifs, decisive no, shows patience and not trying to force a trade.

Look forward to more of your posts.
It is hard to imagine, you only just joined the thread.
Thanks a lot, Pinbar. I've enjoyed reading your posts very much over the last month or so. I seem to remember a really good discussion of boxes from you a few weeks back; very helpful, if I'm remembering the right author!

--Dave
  • #81,004
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:33pm Nov 27, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting Pinbar
EG, BUEOB.

...

EDIT: The other more obvious story looking at the daily alone.
I love that last chart. Yes, it's the more obvious story, and just looking at that chart I would be tempted to take that long. But going through all the TFs the way you did told quite a different (and very convincing story). I just need to remember to have the discipline to do that every time I see PA, no matter how good it initially looks.

If a pair goes the way I think it will and I'm not in the trade, well, I'm no worse off then I was the day before. If I take a trade and the pair does not go the way I think it will, I just lost money. I guess this is why we wait, yes?

Thanks for the hard work, PB!

--Dave
  • #81,005
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:50pm Nov 27, 2010 11:50pm
Quoting Oldice
I love that last chart....

Not at all Dave, your post encouraged me.

Yeah, that is why I am thinking to not draw the PPZ untill after PA has formed. We can eyeball main flip areas and stuff but, as you say, I want to try and be more impartial and clinically try to work out the story without a previously defined bias.

Welcome again, and your post shows how we can all learn from each others, questions and concerns, like the concern I posted.

I want to hear what Jarroo has to say about this as I think apart from the BRN he may have a slightly bullish bias to EG right now. That said, I am sure he can change his bias like flipping a coin, if the signs are there.


Good Job Dave.
  • #81,006
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:57pm Nov 27, 2010 11:57pm
Quoting Pinbar
Good post Ghous and I am glad you made it as I think I also fall into this trap of over analysis and back testing bars with the information on the right, sometimes.

Something I am thinking about right now, is drawing NO ppz at all, watching areas for possible PA, then if there is a good PA setup, analyze the story and the bar, for REAL locational prospects or non prospects, bar size, FTA Confluence, and just take the thing, without thinking too much more about it.
Hi PB,
I am more inclined to draw the PPZ off the weekly TF and then wait for the appropriate PA bars in the PPZ , followed by analysis of the bar and the PPZ before deciding on the action i.e to enter or pass the trade. This ensures that one does not start analyzing each PB, BUOB, BEOB etc........ I remember that location is far more important than the PA bar itself. In good locations, a 'so-so" PA bar may still work out (not that I am advocating to enter on such PA bar) and conversely a very well formed PA bar will have a higher probability to fail if it does not form in the correct location.
Therefore, in view of foregoing, I am not sure why you are giving up on drawing the PPZ as these give us a heads up.

Ghous ric, your comments welcome
Cheers
Novice 198
  • #81,007
  • Edited 12:15am Nov 28, 2010 12:04am | Edited 12:15am
Quoting novice198
Hi PB,
I am more inclined to draw the PPZ off the weekly TF and then wait for the appropriate PA bars in the PPZ , followed by analysis of the bar and the PPZ before deciding on the action i.e to enter or pass the trade. This ensures that one does not start analyzing each PB, BUOB, BEOB etc........ I remember that location is far more important than the PA bar itself. In good locations, a 'so-so" PA bar may still work out (not that I am advocating to enter on such PA bar) and conversely a very well formed PA bar will fail if it does not form in...


Nov, I am in no way giving up on drawing PPZ.

But, I want to see PA on the weekly or higher TF, then draw the PPZ or at least be aware of where it is.

Very often, it is easy to eyeball a weekly of monthly PPZ on the daily without drawing them.


Like this...No PA but I mean how to eyeball the PPZ.


Another reason, I am leaning towards this is, I have just spent the last two months watching James16 videos on the PF, from morning to night, in these videos, there is nothing on the Big Guys chart apart from the EMAs, he is trading and making trade expectations without a single PPZ.

Sure, he marks off the FTA but, that is it!
I am also fully aware he has been at it a Very long time and knows what he is doing, without any doubt but, I am also thinking that these lines on the chart set a bias in our heads. And, we want to trade what we see and not what we think. I am really, thinking about this more and more recently.
And as Ghous said, we don't sit waiting staring at single bars for two weeks without the PPZ, we are looking more at the big picture.

Who knows, maybe it will not work out for me, maybe it will, either way, I feel it is something worth testing to find out.

Of course, this is my personal opinion at this moment in time, it is not a recommendation for anyone.
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  • #81,008
  • Nov 28, 2010 12:17am Nov 28, 2010 12:17am
Quoting ghous
What you see on that chart is precisely the biggest dilemma of back...
Great post Ghous. Thanks for reply. True I did not even notice those pins you highlighted. And yes as you say F12 bar by bar analysis would not produce same backtest results for me, as I already tried that more than several times. Well, yes I just need to stick to my rules for location and bar and maybe I could bring my trading to positive results. Thank you for your analysis.
  • #81,009
  • Nov 28, 2010 12:37am Nov 28, 2010 12:37am
Quoting Adilius07
Great post Ghous. Thanks for reply. True I did not even notice those pins you highlighted. And yes as you say F12 bar by bar analysis would not produce same backtest results for me, as I already tried that more than several times. Well, yes I just need to stick to my rules for location and bar and maybe I could bring my trading to positive results. Thank you for your analysis.

You are not alone Adi.

We are all still hammering it out into shape.
  • #81,010
  • Nov 28, 2010 12:43am Nov 28, 2010 12:43am
Quoting Pinbar
EG, BUEOB.


I know it is still below the BRN, but let's ignore that for now.


EDIT:

Finished.....
Well, we knew from the BRN alone this was a NO No trade but, I think the other reasons are probably equally as valid.

This is the sort of thing, I intend to try in a more spontaneous manner.


Any opinions both good or bad, greatly welcome.

EDIT: The other more obvious story looking at the daily alone.
That was just about as perfect an analysis as could get. Remember the weight you give to your PPzs is the important thing here. Whether you draw your PPZs before hand or prefer to throw them in after you see a bar that pops out what cannot be compromised is their extensive use in determining the validity of the setup.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #81,011
  • Nov 28, 2010 12:54am Nov 28, 2010 12:54am
Quoting ghous
That was just about as perfect an analysis as could get. Remember the weight you give to your PPzs is the important thing here. Whether you draw your PPZs before hand or prefer to throw them in after you see a bar that pops out what cannot be compromised is their extensive use in determining the validity of the setup.

g.


Thanks Ghous and I think you just hit the Nail Right on the head and helped me explain what I was stumbling to put into words.

That being, If I put the PPZ on chart before hand and wait for PA, I sort of get associated with that PPZ on a sort of personal level, I get married to it and feel betrayed when there is no PA there and price just busts right through it.
If I wait for the PA, I am not buying the wedding ring until after the honeymoon. Anyone thinking of getting married may want to read that again.
  • #81,012
  • Nov 28, 2010 1:06am Nov 28, 2010 1:06am
Quoting Oldice
Thanks very much, Ghous!...
A PPZ which is obvious is a strong one

A PPZ that hosts plenty of solid evidences of S/R is a strong one

A PPZ that initiates aggressive bounces/rejections is a strong one

A PPZ that is not frequently visited is a strong one

A PPZ that lines up with round numbers is a strong one

Just a few characteristics of a strong PPZ (from the top of my head).

Obviousness is of course important. What makes a price level worthy of watching is the number of eye balls watching it, and that is directly depending on how obvious is the flip that you see created at the price level.

A whole bunch of times just a single bar high matching with a bar low can be just as great a short term S/R flip as you can get (usually first trouble areas), but normally the longer term (more stable) ones tend to host plenty of evidences stretching back in time to sanction its strength.

Ideally, price shouldn't hang around a strong PPZ, it will normally get rejected immediately and aggressively often within a few pips up and down of the PPZ, or better still - to the pip.

If price is frequently re-visiting a price level proven for its S/R abilities chances are there are not enough orders stacked at this level anymore to create and sustain a rejection. What's more its now weak and probably more likely to break.

Round numbers have a psychological significance for a vast majority of traders including Options traders and fundamental traders in addition to pure technical traders. They are hence important and when lined up with an S/R flip (PPZ) they can be sweet trading spots!

g.
I believe . . .
  • #81,013
  • Nov 28, 2010 1:17am Nov 28, 2010 1:17am
Quoting novice198
Hi PB,
I am more inclined to draw the PPZ off the weekly TF and then wait for the appropriate PA bars in the PPZ , followed by analysis of the bar and the PPZ before deciding on the action i.e to enter or pass the trade. This ensures that one does not start analyzing each PB, BUOB, BEOB etc........ I remember that location is far more important than the PA bar itself. In good locations, a 'so-so" PA bar may still work out (not that I am advocating to enter on such PA bar) and conversely a very well formed PA bar will have a higher probability to...
Hey Novice,

Nothing about the quality of setups taken is changed if you don't draw your PPZs before hand, unless of course you're in the wrong frame of mind and an empty chart looks like a "free trade area" to you. Like I said the fact that you give a lot more weight to PPZs in your trading is far more important than whether you have them on your chart before hand or they help you decide the validity of a trade setup after the PA bar has formed.

Once again, I am not marketing this approach, just saying that this is what works for me and the way I trade. At the end of the day All that's right in the business is that which works for you and all that is wrong in this business is what doesn't add up for you.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #81,014
  • Nov 28, 2010 2:27am Nov 28, 2010 2:27am
Quoting ghous
A PPZ which is obvious is a strong one

A PPZ that hosts plenty of solid evidences of S/R is a strong one

A PPZ that initiates aggressive bounces/rejections is a strong one

A PPZ that is not frequently visited is a strong one

A PPZ that lines up with round numbers is a strong one

Just a few characteristics of a strong PPZ (from the top of my head).

Obviousness is of course important. What makes a price level worthy of watching is the number of eye balls watching it, and that is directly depending on how obvious...

Great Post Ghous.....

I shall make this another page in my trading bible.


Simply wonderful.
  • #81,015
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:52am Nov 28, 2010 3:52am
Quoting ghous
A PPZ which is obvious is a strong one

A PPZ that hosts plenty of solid evidences of S/R is a strong one

A PPZ that initiates aggressive bounces/rejections is a strong one

A PPZ that is not frequently visited is a strong one

A PPZ that lines up with round numbers is a strong one

Just a few characteristics of a strong PPZ (from the top of my head).

Obviousness is of course important. What makes a price level worthy of watching is the number of eye balls watching it, and that is directly depending on how obvious...
Thanks Ghous - +1 on saving this post for my bible as well

Quote
A PPZ that is not frequently visited is a strong one
Quote
Ideally, price shouldn't hang around a strong PPZ, it will normally get rejected immediately and aggressively often within a few pips up and down of the PPZ, or better still - to the pip.

If price is frequently re-visiting a price level proven for its S/R abilities chances are there are not enough orders stacked at this level anymore to create and sustain a rejection. What's more its now weak and probably more likely to break.
This is something new I've learnt about PPZ levels

With that in mind - is anyone watching AUD/CAD?

The weekly is at a strong and infrequently visited area and it's recently broken through a VBRN 1.0000. There's a nice H&S on the daily which has also just broken the neckline. I'm watching for a retest of 0.9900 for a bounce.

Fundamentally with Russia buying CAD as a reserve currency and the RBA saying they'll leave interest rates unchanged for AUD this could hopelly get some legs - what do the esteemed panel think?
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Anything can happen.
  • #81,016
  • Edited 4:15am Nov 28, 2010 3:59am | Edited 4:15am
to play or not to play this is the question (not much experience in continuation boub ) tnx in advance
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  • #81,017
  • Nov 28, 2010 5:30am Nov 28, 2010 5:30am
Quoting Kika
to play or not to play this is the question (not much experience in continuation boub ) tnx in advance
On my feed and *if* I've identified significant PPZs then it looks like it's closed below the box area and previous weekly lows. Got some nice room to move if it breaks as well and there's some divergence.

Trouble areas on the daily as I see them - .9600, .9563, .9460 and there's .9500 in the mix as well. Both daily and weekly have closed below the PPZ at .9650 which is encouraging. Fundamentally this could maybe work out if there's more EUR uncertainty, dollar strength and AUD looking bearish.

Hopefully someone senior will be along soon
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Anything can happen.
  • #81,018
  • Nov 28, 2010 5:41am Nov 28, 2010 5:41am
Quoting Kika
to play or not to play this is the question (not much experience in continuation boub ) tnx in advance
That doesn't like like a bad setup at all...in my book at least. Good location (obliging to the 2W pin bar, off the 1.000 and forming the break of the H&S pattern on the daily) Decent shape (strong close) and a very very clear idea of where price is going at the break of the BEOB.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #81,019
  • Nov 28, 2010 6:28am Nov 28, 2010 6:28am
EURJPY:at weekly chart, we can see the price closed under the down trend line and under the resistance area 115.62,it is still in the down trend.then turn chart to daily,it seems chaos,i find there are some resistance @111.83(112.00,the round number).BUT,on the other hand,there are support @111.30,and you can see the perfect pinba on 4h chart.so i think going short @111.83 or below 111.30 is not too bad.
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #81,020
  • Nov 28, 2010 6:30am Nov 28, 2010 6:30am
Quoting geniusztc
EURJPY:at weekly chart, we can see the price closed under the down trend line and under the resistance area 115.62,it is still in the down trend.then turn chart to daily,it seems chaos,i find there are some resistance @111.83(112.00,the round number).BUT,on the other hand,there are support @111.30,and you can see the perfect pinba on 4h chart.so i think going short @111.83 or below 111.30 is not too bad.

What about 110 BRN can we just ignore it?
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