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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #3,261
  • Nov 23, 2010 10:17pm Nov 23, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting gkiberd
steve-as you know, my work honors the old and new...95% of my trades are based on the .886 on gap on 5 as i posted at marketgeometry.both joed and i have had our work stolen and sold.. joed chose the route of not posting his best work. i chose the opposite, to post for free my most powerful work,believing that 99% of traders would dismiss out of hand that which is not being sold ...
Welcome, gkiberd! I'm new to trading and would like to learn from experienced traders like yourself.
  • #3,262
  • Nov 23, 2010 11:55pm Nov 23, 2010 11:55pm
here are my charts from today. was out yesterday doing some family stuff. was thinking of a usdjpy trade long but markets were a bit volatile for my taste.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #3,263
  • Nov 24, 2010 12:38am Nov 24, 2010 12:38am
Quoting fxvatsan
I checked S/R and fork, 200ema. Waited for the candles to close above the lines. After i entered it reversed! II know this is FX. My clarification to the forum is what is that i missed? Can anyone see what i missed?
Hello fxvatsan,

I can only say what I notice first ( if it was my trade idea )

a) your blue bullish bar did not close higher than the preceding red bearish bar. If you take the 2 bars and imagine it is a 8h chart, the combination would look a bit like a pinbar, but the close would not be convincing as not high enough

b) price action was bearish on that pair recently, I would not trade countertrend based on a 4h bar.

c) look at the downswing and your green downward sloping line, this is what I would call a beautiful perfect swing, where I would say " price met time ". After that you might take a buy based on a 15/30/1h candle, not on a 4h candle.

In my opinion ( do that myself so i know ) you have too many things on your chart. I would take away the grid, it confuses only. Instead maybe just mark the round numbers ( 00, or the 50`s as well ).

For basic and effective very good forks I would read the posts by taq.

For double candle formations read in the James16 thread the posts/charts from Jarroo.

Always ask yourself : is this a risk positive environment or risk negative ? AUD and the commodity currencies thrive in a risk-positive environment. Now with Ireland, QE 2 by the Fed I would not buy immediately in to AUD, except if you are a very aggressive trader.

Hope that helps. I always try to draw my forks in the direction of the orderflow.



_____________
michael
Be like water.
  • #3,264
  • Nov 24, 2010 1:09am Nov 24, 2010 1:09am
Quoting msmarple
Hello fxvatsan,

I can only say what I notice first ( if it was my trade idea )

_____________
michael
Hello msmarple
Thank you very much for taking time to analyse my chart and give your idea. You are very correct, I have too many stuff in my charts! I have already removed the grid lines. Will work on your other suggestions and looks at James16 and TQU’ threads.
Once again thank you very much.
fxvatsan
  • #3,265
  • Nov 24, 2010 4:04am Nov 24, 2010 4:04am
fxvastan I would like to add one more thing.
If you are trading on 240-min than also keep your eye on dailies .
Remember price is everything , reasons follow. James16 thread is a good place to start with, read first 30 pages .

Updated EU chart 500 pips drop in 2 sessions Also keep your eye on AU.Let us see how it will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ
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  • #3,266
  • Nov 24, 2010 4:43am Nov 24, 2010 4:43am
Quoting gkiberd
steve-as you know, my work honors the old and new...95% of my trades are based on the .886 on gap on 5 as i posted at marketgeometry.both joed and i have had our work stolen and sold.. joed chose the route of not posting his best work. i chose the opposite, to post for free my most powerful work,believing that 99% of traders would dismiss out of hand that which is not being sold ...
Hi George, great to hear you're around! I've seen your work over the years. (since the last millenium!), and appreciate the insight you've shared. thankyou, Steve
  • #3,267
  • Nov 25, 2010 1:17am Nov 25, 2010 1:17am
Quoting gkiberd
steve-as you know, my work honors the old and new...95% of my trades are based on the .886 on gap on 5 as i posted at marketgeometry.both joed and i have had our work stolen and sold.. joed chose the route of not posting his best work. i chose the opposite, to post for free my most powerful work,believing that 99% of traders would dismiss out of hand that which is not being sold ...
Hi gkiberd,

Welcome to this forum. You have many years of experience trading forks and some pearls of wisdom I hope you will share here. Although I did take a 3-day class from Tim years ago, I didn't take advantage of Tim's public forum and now it's closed, unfortunately. However, I spent some time using Google to search through the words of your posts on marketgeometry. All I could see is the cached versions of your posts, and as you may know, that doesn't include any of the charts... so while I was very interested to follow your comments, without access to the charts, it's a difficult task.

When you get a chance and if you feel like it, please post some charts illustrating what you mean by drawing forks on open gaps, and how you mark the .886, 1.27, etc. I know how to draw retraces and external retracements and fib expansions (aka APP). I'm very familiar with the work of Robert Miner, for example, so I'm just hoping to fully understand how you apply fibs to your charts and how those fibs assist you with drawing forks and picking your ideal trade entries and exits. I'm always open to learning from the masters...

Thanks in advance.
Kent (pips4life)
  • #3,268
  • Nov 25, 2010 1:37am Nov 25, 2010 1:37am
fxvatsan, think about the context.
price do not always has to fit the lines perfect. they are just a tool, like many other things too. you have to put them in the context.
afterwards it is easy to analyze but after such a move down there is mostly a flag, some kind of retracement. in this case a bear flag. if you look before the audusd made always flags.

anyhow, price reached on the downmove the medianline and reversed, made a retest of the new lower medinelins and gave a buy setup. for pips later price reversed and you were stopped out at the lower ml again. maybe a breakeven trade.
but price broke lower ml and never reached medinaline before, so you have hagopian rule. if you now changed your position to short and took the new target your trade would have been very profitable.
just context.

good luck
alexandra
  • #3,269
  • Nov 25, 2010 2:17am Nov 25, 2010 2:17am
Quoting GreatYves
You forget many others... I personally prefer the good old .618 golden ratio. But the .886 had recently stimulate my interest more and more. being a ratio where most people have totally lost hope of a reversal...

Primary Ratios:
(Directly derived from the Fibonacci Number Sequence)
• 0.618 = Primary Ratio
• 1.618 = Primary Projection

Primary Derived Ratios:
• 0.786 = Square root of the 0.618
• 0.886 = Fourth root of 0.618 or square root of the 0.786
• 1.13 = Fourth root of 1.618 or square root of the 1.27
• 1.27...
Retracement Bounces : *[0.382; 0.500; 0.618] è Extensions {1.618, <if 1.18/1.27 is passed>}
*[0.786 ] è “ {1.27} ……Square Root of Pry Ratios (0.618 è 1.618 resp.)
*[0.860 ] è “ {1.18}………??? No Direct Root Relationship???
[0.852 ] è “ {1.174}…. Cube Root Of Primary Ratios
[0.8866 ] è “ {1.1278}……Fourth Root Of Pry Ratios

*Has been proven 90% repeatable, so provided we can negotiate the appropriate Stop Levels (required for the Given T/F) repeatableprofits are not far off.

Bless!
  • #3,270
  • Nov 25, 2010 5:11am Nov 25, 2010 5:11am
Nice trade I took off the 15 min earlier. Exited 2/3, leaving 1/3 to run.
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  • #3,271
  • Nov 25, 2010 8:48am Nov 25, 2010 8:48am
-5 GMT (7PM EST) OR -7 GMT (5PM EST)

These different times also affect daily pivot levels.
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,272
  • Nov 25, 2010 9:18am Nov 25, 2010 9:18am
To the great forkers community I wish you a Happy Thanksgiving holiday.
It's turkey time!

TAQ
  • #3,273
  • Nov 25, 2010 1:14pm Nov 25, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting taq
fxvastan I would like to add one more thing.
If you are trading on 240-min than also keep your eye on dailies .
Remember price is everything , reasons follow. James16 thread is a good place to start with, read first 30 pages .

Updated EU chart 500 pips drop in 2 sessions Also keep your eye on AU.Let us see how it will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ
Dear TAQ
Thank you very much TAQ for your input, i appreciate it very much and will work on it.
Have a good thanksgiving!.
Regards
Fxvatsan
  • #3,274
  • Nov 26, 2010 4:14am Nov 26, 2010 4:14am
...
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,275
  • Nov 26, 2010 4:30am Nov 26, 2010 4:30am
...
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,276
  • Nov 26, 2010 4:38am Nov 26, 2010 4:38am
Here's my take on EUR but on 240min - green fork is speculative but could tie in with ABCD

beeb
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  • #3,277
  • Nov 26, 2010 5:38am Nov 26, 2010 5:38am
...
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #3,278
  • Nov 26, 2010 5:47am Nov 26, 2010 5:47am
Quoting taq

My views on EU & AU. IN AU I covered my longs if it go below ML & retest I will initiate shorts .


Regards,
TAQ
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3229
Updated charts. I am done in AU. Let us see how EU will unfold.

Regards,
TAQ
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  • #3,279
  • Nov 26, 2010 9:49am Nov 26, 2010 9:49am
Took a long off e/j retest on the 4hr (the first retest, the one that broke through ), got out at pivot (also 15 min 200ema). Would have left it longer to swing, but what with it being Friday I don't want to hold over the weekend. We're also at a daily support around this area on a median line.
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  • #3,280
  • Nov 26, 2010 12:11pm Nov 26, 2010 12:11pm
Andrews said:

"When prices reverse trend before reaching a line at which probability indicates such a reverse could start, proper action may be taken in buying or selling, as soon as prices cross the trend line they were moving along before reverse."

Does anyone apply the rule in this way? In other words, you have a down trendline drawn.
Price is moving towards the median line underneath the down trendline.

But before it gets to the median line, it reverses. So are you using the rule to buy when price crosses the down trendline? Would you wait for the first close above the down trendline? Andrews said "as soon as price crosses" so it doesn't sound like he waited for the close at all. It might depend if he was entering or exitting a trade though.
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