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  • #3,001
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:05am Nov 24, 2010 11:05am
Quoting Trotty
Do you trade at 2%?

My growth this week is only a few % but i'm not trading at close to 2% yet. I'm planning to start scaling up to it early next year.
I'm trading at 1% or less right now; If my stop is 20 pips or greater then I set my risk to equal 1%. If my stop is less then 20 pips, I set my risk so that 1% = 20 pips (so 10 pip stop is .5% risk etc).

Yeah I've got the same idea as you about increasing my risk -- I'm going to do it gradually. If I were to trade 2% right now I'd be a wreck, I'd sit out way too many trades.
  • #3,002
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:10am Nov 24, 2010 11:10am
Quoting dr mongolia
I'm trading at 1% or less right now; If my stop is 20 pips or greater then I set my risk to equal 1%. If my stop is less then 20 pips, I set my risk so that 1% = 20 pips (so 10 pip stop is .5% risk etc).

Yeah I've got the same idea as you about increasing my risk -- I'm going to do it gradually. If I were to trade 2% right now I'd be a wreck, I'd sit out way too many trades.
Ha! I know exactly what you mean.

That's the thing about growth though, it's all relative. Your 10% would have been 20% if you were at 2% risk so actually, in a way, you are already trading at the level you want to be at - just with less risk.

If you can maintain that level and scale your risk up, you've made it.

Around page 450 on his thread, EO says he was trading at 3% risk when asked. If so, I honestly dread to think how much wonga that guy was pulling
  • #3,003
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:16am Nov 24, 2010 11:16am
Quoting Trotty
This isn't unusual. I’ve written a few business plans in my business life and have yet to properly stick to any of them. I admire the man who does, they are probably scant in numbers. The problem for me has been that as I’m learning, I’m still a work in progress so the entries I take and the way I trade evolves each week and I need to have flexibility in me right now that a strict plan doesn't allow for.
I hear you, I'm the same way with business plans. It reminds me of a Dwight Eisenhower quote -- and I can't remember exactly how it goes, but something to the effect of "In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless but planning is invaluable". In a startup business especially, you scrap and redo the plans every 3-4 weeks, BUT the act of planning itself helps you think through all those little details that you never thought through before. I think that's what Eisenhower was getting at -- even if you don't use the plans, planning gives you invaluable information that you will use in some capacity, kind of like your new strategy for moving stops.

Quoting Trotty
Regarding thanksgiving, it's not recognised at all here. We know of it because you guys celebrate it but that's as far as it goes. When is it?
Good to know; over here it's tomorrow, everyone pretty much gets off of work on Thursday and Friday. I don't think Friday is a bank holiday over here, though, and as Ken said all the US retail traders will be at home off of work, so we might get a very crazy day. So Thursday will likely be the slow US session, Friday might have some fireworks.
  • #3,004
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:20am Nov 24, 2010 11:20am
Quoting dr mongolia
I hear you, I'm the same way with business plans. It reminds me of a Dwight Eisenhower quote -- and I can't remember exactly how it goes, but something to the effect of "In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless but planning is invaluable". In a startup business especially, you scrap and redo the plans every 3-4 weeks, BUT the act of planning itself helps you think through all those little details that you never thought through before. I think that's what Eisenhower was getting at -- even if you don't use the plans, planning...
Exactly that and I would 100% advocate writing a plan to anyone, it helped me without any question at all, even if I haven't adhered to them so well.


Quoting dr mongolia
Good to know; over here it's tomorrow, everyone pretty much gets off of work on Thursday and Friday. I don't think Friday is a bank holiday over here, though, and as Ken said all the US retail traders will be at home off of work, so we might get a very crazy day. So Thursday will likely be the slow US session, Friday might have some fireworks.
Thanks for the heads up there, will look forward to Friday then!

Well, with it being tomorrow, may I wish all you in the US a very happy thanksgiving
  • #3,005
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:25am Nov 24, 2010 11:25am
Quoting Trotty
That's the thing about growth though, it's all relative. Your 10% would have been 20% if you were at 2% risk so actually, in a way, you are already trading at the level you want to be at - just with less risk.

If you can maintain that level and scale your risk up, you've made it.

Around page 450 on his thread, EO says he was trading at 3% risk when asked. If so, I honestly dread to think how much wonga that guy was pulling
Yeah in theory I know what you mean, but that's like an entirely different mountain to climb it seems. Like about 30 mins ago I took the E/J kiss off the 15M 35 / 1H 10, there's no way I would have taken that trade with 2% risk unless I had a xanax Same with A/U, a few mins ago I took the hammer off the 15M 21 to retest the top, that one was safer but still might have stood aside. I guess in summary it's easier to "trade what you see" with 1%.. but at 2%, you start trading what you expect.

I think the trading plan with help me with that regard, though, because if I can figure out which are my highest percentage setups, I could risk 2% on those and then 1% on everything else. The problem I have is how to define a setup -- depending on what's going on with the HTF charts and where we are in relation to the session, everything is completely different. That A/U 15M 21 trade I took was really a retest of the London high plus PPA, the hammer was just a result of the rejection to that area.
  • #3,006
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:30am Nov 24, 2010 11:30am
I forgot to give some thoughts on this in that last reply:

Quoting Trotty
Around page 450 on his thread, EO says he was trading at 3% risk when asked. If so, I honestly dread to think how much wonga that guy was pulling
It's difficult to get a grip for what he was really risking per trade because I think when he said 3% risk he had his stop at 40-60 pips by default and would close out manually if the trade went against him (like if a candle closed above/below his signal candle and took it out, he'd manually close the trade and look for another entry). So when he says 3% I THINK that's what he means.. And if that's the case he was playing 1% = 10 pips or 1% = 20 pips. I'm sure Ken would know. I think Ken had commented on this before and said that EO was typically risking less then 1% per trade, but that might have been his "manual risk" and not what his stop was actually set to.
  • #3,007
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:32am Nov 24, 2010 11:32am
Quoting dr mongolia
Yeah in theory I know what you mean, but that's like an entirely different mountain to climb it seems. Like about 30 mins ago I took the E/J kiss off the 15M 35 / 1H 10, there's no way I would have taken that trade with 2% risk unless I had a xanax Same with A/U, a few mins ago I took the hammer off the 15M 21 to retest the top, that one was safer but still might have stood aside. I guess in summary it's easier to "trade what you see" with 1%.. but at 2%, you start trading what you expect.

I think the trading plan with help me with...
This is exactly how I trade already. My maximum current risk on A1 setups (about 0.6%), half of that on setups i'm less sure about and then small risk on half-arsed setups

I see my trading purely in £'s and not pips so even if I only make a small number of them on a trade because my risk was tiny, it's still money coming in.

Trading 2% on everything, regardless of how confident you are in the setup, would seem like a foolhardy way to go about trading to me (and probably the fast lane to ruin as well!).
  • #3,008
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:33am Nov 24, 2010 11:33am
Quoting dr mongolia
I forgot to give some thoughts on this in that last reply:



It's difficult to get a grip for what he was really risking per trade because I think when he said 3% risk he had his stop at 40-60 pips by default and would close out manually if the trade went against him (like if a candle closed above/below his signal candle and took it out, he'd manually close the trade and look for another entry). So when he says 3% I THINK that's what he means.. And if that's the case he was playing 1% = 10 pips or 1% = 20 pips. I'm sure Ken would know. I think...
Very good point, i'd forgotten about his monster stops, lol.
  • #3,009
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:46am Nov 24, 2010 11:46am
Quoting Trotty
This is exactly how I trade already. My maximum current risk on A1 setups (about 0.6%), half of that on setups i'm less sure about and then small risk on half-arsed setups
Ah! Yeah that's exactly what I'd like to do. Have you had any luck in specifically defining your setups? It gets a little crazy with all the things we watch, and all the different combinations.
  • #3,010
  • Nov 24, 2010 12:04pm Nov 24, 2010 12:04pm
Once you have come to terms with what makes you change from trading the charts to trading your feelings, you will start to understand the level of risk you should trade at. But if your trading 1% but stilll aren't taking good entries because fear of a loss your not trading small enough.

You will get to a point that you know what your losses will be and you wont be afraid. I have a a level that doesn't worry me . if I know it will take more than 100 pips to really affect my account I am pretty fearless. But that is only to a limit.

Once you have consistent loss control (Don't let any trades runaway). You can then have a plan to increase your risk. But if you don't have that under control your not ready for any increase. The key to making a % gain is not to have to make up to much loss.

The best traders I keep tabs on still use around 10 pip stops most the time. They may enter at the same spot 2 or 3 times if it is a solid level.

But when your trades are like those I posted yesterday a total of 30 or 40 pips for 3 entries is nothing. I like to be able to make up a loss in one good trade. If it is taking you 2 or 3 trades to get back to even that is to much.

These are varables each person has to workout. If you scalp your stops have to be tighter to stay within the rules . If your trades are longer you could get away with bigger stops. This is where the arguement between styles comes in both maybe looking for a 1:1 ratio but the stops and tp's are hugelly different. So would be the % at risk . That is why you will see traders that make huge gains rarely make the better % increases. because their stops have to be taken into account.

I know traders That trade 2 lots when taking long term trades, That trade 20 lots when scalping with a tight stop. So it is a part of your plan. But the key is emotions if you can't make the right choice because of the risk . Trade less. Just like adding on and taking profits . The ability to manage a trade can be the best single skill to learn .

If you read EO's thread you will see many times where he was in trades for days. It was not a single in and hold losing all the gains on the wild swings but adjusting as he went. It is a lot easier to add to a profitable trade knowing your not going to lose even if it goes against you than to find a new position.

I have done this succesfully in the past and it is ethuric ( Fun) to do. If you have gone 60 pips took 1/2 off let come back 30 add that 1/2 back with a tight stop you know the trade is positive know matter what. If it makes another leg ,it is even easier .

I risk about 1% but when I say 1% it isn't a true 1% . I risk $1 per pip per $1000 of my account ballance, My preset stop is 14 . This just gets it on the chart if price flies back quickly and takes it out before I can adjust, fine I was probably wrong anyway.

I might have a tighter stop or looser depending on trade, But it is the price action that defines when to take the loss. As long as I stay within that 1% I can maintian control of my trading . But If I go to $2 per $1000 or 2% I start to loss that control when price moves around 25 pips against me.

So knowing this I can control my trades against terrible losses. That 2% at 25 pip would equal 5% risk I suspect. I think the key is your comfort zone.

Also you have to take trades. The ONLY time I trade bad is when I stop taking trades out of further fear of losses. I KNOW that my entries produce a better than 80% success and that if I have a loss or two I only have to continue to be profitable. Take the time to notice things and trade, Don't sit there all day doing nothing.

Sorry for the long post just how I see things. It is like profit taking It is a personal choice we have to deal with . Why people trading the same way or ideas have wildlly different results.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,011
  • Nov 24, 2010 12:11pm Nov 24, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting dr mongolia
I forgot to give some thoughts on this in that last reply:



It's difficult to get a grip for what he was really risking per trade because I think when he said 3% risk he had his stop at 40-60 pips by default and would close out manually if the trade went against him (like if a candle closed above/below his signal candle and took it out, he'd manually close the trade and look for another entry). So when he says 3% I THINK that's what he means.. And if that's the case he was playing 1% = 10 pips or 1% = 20 pips. I'm sure Ken would know. I think...

I thin k like most traders EO had a hit a wall at times finding it hard to increase lots per pip. This was why he was trading a less %. You will see it on the thread. The peer pressure and comardery of Pippin may have helped to get past this.

That is a common thing that happens and many people will even tell you to risk less as your acoount builds. Not sure why . If all is the same why? But when you start trading $100 of dollars + a pip . It can be nerve racking I am sure to watch thousands of dollars swing. Why maybe a good plan to setup a per % entry on your platform that way every trade increases as your equity grows in a slow steady fashion letting you adjust to the idea as well. If not you must have a plan to increase weither it is daily or at certian levels.

I think until your trading over 10 lots keeping a mini account would be better for most that way you could add 1/2 lots.

Just my opioon on what took place .
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #3,012
  • Nov 24, 2010 6:17pm Nov 24, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting Kenneth Lee
......
Everyone in the US have a great carb loading Thanksgiving , and the others can take the U.S. session off and have a pint down at the pub .


Cheers.. Ken

Ken, Have a blast and enjoy!
It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it!
  • #3,013
  • Nov 24, 2010 7:54pm Nov 24, 2010 7:54pm
Hi Ken and All,

If I can't trade in US session, what's the next better time(session or time period) to trade this method.

And also pls reply to my post #2989.


Thanx in Advance!!
  • #3,014
  • Nov 24, 2010 8:27pm Nov 24, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting isharasjc
Hi Ken and All,

Are you guys doing news trading, if so how you predicting the price movement when news releases? Can you pls explain how can we predict the price movement based on the news and every technique that you are using for news trading.


Thanx!!
Hey,

In EO's method news is regarded as news -- there are no techniques for predicting/trading the news.. it's all based on technical analysis.

If you can't trade the US session, the London would be your next best bet. And even if you can only trade Asia, you can still make some very nice pips.. tonight we had big moves on A/U, G/U, and E/J (and others as well I'm sure, those are just the only pairs I watch). I got A/U from the top as a textbook PPA entry, and E/J as a textbook session/range breakout (1/5 o'clock trade). The methods for trading those are in Ken's PDF, found on page #1 of the thread.
  • #3,015
  • Nov 24, 2010 8:45pm Nov 24, 2010 8:45pm
Here's the trades I was just talking about if they help anyone..

First chart is A/U. Green area highlights the PPA area, Ken should beat us if we miss this one because he's got examples of it all over the thread. Red arrow shows the short entry.

Second chart is E/J. I missed it from the top so I waited for it to cross and retest the green PPA area then entered short on the red arrow. I took some profit, now short again from the second red arrow.

I missed G/U from the top, but I did get an entry just now. It's the same idea as the E/J trade.

Asia doesn't always give this many trades in a session but when it does they are usually pretty easy textbook trades.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_JPY Spot.png Size: 24 KB
  • #3,016
  • Nov 25, 2010 2:38am Nov 25, 2010 2:38am
Quoting dr mongolia
Ah! Yeah that's exactly what I'd like to do. Have you had any luck in specifically defining your setups? It gets a little crazy with all the things we watch, and all the different combinations.
It's all about confluence. If I get three or more strong confluence points, it's a full assault.

If there is only 2 or 1 good reason and a couple or ropey reasons to enter, I’ll go half and if it's purely got a gut trade off a nice looking candle or a level that has held before, I’ll go in tiny.

The decisions are taken quickly and sometimes I regret not going in full or regret not reducing my exposure but nothing's perfect and it'll improve with time like everything else!
  • #3,017
  • Nov 25, 2010 4:21am Nov 25, 2010 4:21am
Quoting dr mongolia
Here's the trades I was just talking about if they help anyone..

First chart is A/U. Green area highlights the PPA area, Ken should beat us if we miss this one because he's got examples of it all over the thread. Red arrow shows the short entry.

Second chart is E/J. I missed it from the top so I waited for it to cross and retest the green PPA area then entered short on the red arrow. I took some profit, now short again from the second red arrow.

I missed G/U from the top, but I did get an entry just now. It's the same idea as the E/J trade....
This A/U trade was my very favourite one. Asia is typically unwilling to attempt new levels so when eur/usa sesion respects weekly pivot ( or multitested ppa line) I usually put PO there.
  • #3,018
  • Nov 25, 2010 4:38am Nov 25, 2010 4:38am
Quoting kodziro
This A/U trade was my very favourite one. Asia is typically unwilling to attempt new levels so when eur/usa sesion respects weekly pivot ( or multitested ppa line) I usually put PO there.
These are probably the sort of trades that I both admire the most and the ones that are holding me back the most.

The way my mind looks at this trade is that it's been rejected off that area and come down and consolidated for a while. Then, the buyers are making a fresh push up to test the area again and the move looks to have some momentum about it. Now if I got a nice pin, shooting star or engulfing pattern at that area then I may well take a short but to just go short on the relatively small wicked bullish candle is totally counter-intuitive to my mind.

I presume the rationale behind this trade is that D1 and H4 are down trends so we are presuming that there will be further failure at the rejected areas that it's retraced to in the past?

Great R/R on that trade if it was held on to for a bit....
  • #3,019
  • Nov 25, 2010 5:00am Nov 25, 2010 5:00am
Quoting Trotty
These are probably the sort of trades that I both admire the most and the ones that are holding me back the most.

The way my mind looks at this trade is that it's been rejected off that area and come down and consolidated for a while....
The reason of that trade was only coming asia session and weekly pivot ( and ppa line that was rejected earlier), of course down trend define my TP differently but not the enter.
I look at htf frame to set PO. This small wicked 15m bullish candle reject ppa line 0.9845 and i belive thats because dr mongolia trade it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,020
  • Nov 25, 2010 5:08am Nov 25, 2010 5:08am
Quoting kodziro
The reason of that trade was only coming asia session and weekly pivot ( and ppa line that was rejected earlier), of course down trend define my TP differently but not the enter.
I look at htf frame to set PO. This small wicked 15m bullish candle reject ppa line 0.9845 and i belive thats because dr mongolia trade it.
Thanks for the explanation, still find that sort of trade a tough one to get my head around!
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