vsa with Malcolm

If euro can break 1.34 and go up continuelly, are signs of strength of Monday still valid? Those high volume of course means SM intensive activities, maybe they just bought euro at that time and now suffer the draw down.

EU M30

Upthrust would be nice here, low risk trade. Let`s see.

Good call, right again.

There's massive interest in prices between 1.3 and 1.4. Something is afoot for sure. However, the market just doesn't look that strong right now. I think we may range for a while but with slightly lower highs until SM are ready to push. But maybe Mal would be better to explain that side of things.

Watch for testing on the eur at 3365. There is strength that may play out for a continuation of London's move.

EU M5

Just a few things to ponder.

Closed short +3, have to wait more confirmation, too slow ATM.

If EU are going up, next resistance should be 1.54?

Edit: I mean, 1.354.

Reviewing VSA Live Trades #11 to #20.
All the below trades have been posted.

#11 EUR/JPY - Short, Loss ( -30 pips)
#12 EUR/USD - Short, Loss ( -30 pips)
#13 EUR/JPY - Long, Win ( 20 pips)
#14 EUR/USD - Short, Loss ( -30 pips)
#15 EUR/USD - Long, Break Even ( 0 pips)
#16 EUR/USD - Short, Win ( 30 pips)
#17 GBP/USD - Short, Loss ( -30 pips)
#18 EUR/JPY - Short, Win ( 30 pips)
#19 EUR/USD - Short, Win ( 30 pips)
#20 GBP/USD - Long, Win ( 30 pips)

10 Trades
5 Wins
4 Loss
1 Break Even
Win Ratio = 50%

Total Win Pips = 140 pips
Total Loss Pips = -120 pips
Nett Pips (Profit) = 20 pips (If traded only equal lot on ALL trans. Did not do like that.)


Avg Win Pips Per Trade = 28 pips
Avg Loss Pips Per Trade = -30 pips

With these 10 trades, during this time I suspended trading many other methods, I just focus on VSA.


Observations:
- While entering these trades, could have taken earlier entries on UpThrust and DownThrust. But did not take them as did not recognise them well from earlier trades #1 to #10, and also followed Intel's recommended plan of looking more confirmation for NoSupply and NoDemand.
- Found out looking for NoSupply and NoDemand usually appeared more in the quiet lunch time of USA session, that is time to bed. And NS/ND may appear more on M5 than M15. Did not want to look at M5 much now.
- Entry on NS/ND does not mean the price will move fast after that, sometimes price stalls around NS/ND.
- High Volume that appears both on M15 and a higher time frame like M30 and H1 are more effective.
- Did not concern as much on correct VSA definitions, as must still act even if the ND/NS does not exactly have lower volume than the previous 2 bars.
- Check and label more for Buyers/Sellers in terms of high volume, rather than other exact VSA terms.
- Those Wins need to hold for a bit longer, and need to forecast better TP.
- It is better to follow the Hull colour, but this is no entry signal as it can easily be wrong as well.
- If take a Short when Hull is Green, then Hull better turn Red real soon like in next 3 bars, otherwise look to exit. Same idea applies for Long if enter when Hull is Red.
- What used to be a usual 60-80 pips initial stop loss is now 20-30 pips initial stop loss.
- The trades now frequently hit either the SL or TP in a relative fast time.
- Out of 3 pairs, quite frequently I selected the pair that trend less and have a shorter run.
- It is ok to trade less pairs as recommended by taomql4. Traded mainly GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD.


Current Components:
- Minimise initial stop loss.
- VSA.
- Trend Lines.
- Support & Resistance Horizontal Lines.
- Mini Price Action Support & Resistance.
- Price Action with Momentum.
- Move entry to Break Even within a reasonable time.


Look forward:
- Improve and maintain win/loss to 70%.
- Reduce initial stop loss.
- Enter with better VSA recognition.
- Move entry to Break Even.
- Reverse position.
- Better forecast of TP.
- Better forecast on which pair will start trending and trend better.

Further feedback would be appreciated.

See You there , Buddy !!!

Mal, cast your eyes over this if you will, EU 1hr, buying climax then gets hit with sellers over the next 2 bars?

It sure does look like it.

Great, I think you gonna be VSA pro.

something going on

Take a peak at GU 60 min last 2 days... almost look like massive buying in the 5800 area.

Also es 1175 being defended like mad. If things were that bad why do the buyers keep turning up at this level ?

I banged out a couple of trades on eu today both longs for a few pips, missed top failure of 1.3400 ( poc yesterday was 1.3995) so would have been a nice sell on the doji on the 15 min with 15 pip stops...oh well never mind always tomorrow in London for a few.

1.33 is a major s/r on the weekly

Hi foxy,

I'm quite pleased to see your results. You might not be so pleased but I think you're learning from the trades you make. This education cannot be taught, it is invaluable. I remember from the first few trades you made, they didn't turn out so well and you were a bit dispondant. You've turned it around to a 50% win rate which is very good for that amount of time.

If I would offer some general advice, I suppose it woud be this:

1. The best time to trade VSA is London session. If you can, trade only this session and get to learn how volume reacts to the time of day.

2. Select just 1 VSA setup and trade that only. Make sure you can identify that setup at a heart beats notice.

3. You generally set a risk:reward ratio of 1:1. This means you need to win 51 times out of a hundred to be profitable. You will need to win about 60 times out of a hundred to make any realistic profit. If your setup is wins less times than this, re evaluate your setup.

4. When considering points 2 & 3, be precise and be honest. Don't 'fudge' the figures, it's only you who will pay the price.

You are one of the few people who are putting the in effort in this thread and I wish you all the luck in the world.

I see the price went back up to form a genuine UT on the M15 chart before plumetting. The signs were there for anyone who was watching.

We had the u high vol up bar, Good quality UT, UT conformation and a ND for our entry.

VSA 101.

We had 90 pips on the way up and maybe 35 on the way down. Hope you all caught some of these.

On daily...

Looks like they prepare for up ride. WK EU bar found support on ichi kumo and when I look at the daily vol (fxcm) we had selling climax (or effort to fall) followed by stopping vol.
Low activity because of Thanksgiving aka long weekend, almost no news may turn this weeks bar into test and if this happens I project 1.39 or higher, but let's first see what really happens...

some form of up move with a valid test would confirm turn around on daily .

I wanna know if things are so bad how comes dj / sand p close to 2010 high and dax keeps setting new highs

E/U and G/U seem like accumulation ongoing but still need more proof