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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #741
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:26am Nov 21, 2010 9:26am
Quoting pkimnyc
Hi sinner,

Would you mind telling me where I can get those charts?
Thanks in advance.
If you look in the top right corner of these charts, stockcharts.com will hit you in the face
  • #742
  • Nov 21, 2010 5:09pm Nov 21, 2010 5:09pm
Just like with Greece, the request from Ireland for a bailout comes during the weekend.

Should be interesting next week.

And how about the protester that was knocked down - perhaps another case of a little person that those in charge simply do not see.

On a serious note, it was not so long ago that the IRA were threatening to target bankers. Things, I fear, are going to get very ugly.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #743
  • Nov 22, 2010 7:03am Nov 22, 2010 7:03am
Hi 45C, I edited your post a little

Quoting 45Condor
Just like with Greece everyone is trying to target bankers. Things, I fear, are going to get very ugly.
Inserted Video

Inserted Video


Quote
A year ago Irish Green Party politician Paul Nicholas Gogarty told Irish Labor Party TD "With all due respect, in the most unparliamentary language; Fuck you, Deputy Stagg, fuck you!... We Are Screwed As A Country Because Of The Wrongdoing Of Others." It took a year for Gogarty to be proven correct. Now that the "others" have been identified as virtually every UK and German bank, not to mention every insolvent financial institution in the world, and of course, the Fed's banking buddies, one wonders: just how will Ireland respond? Also,...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/iri...ngdoing-others
  • #744
  • Nov 22, 2010 7:17am Nov 22, 2010 7:17am
Quoting sinner-
Hi guys,

I direct you to an extremely important post Oct 4:




Witness the 10 year yield after October 4:
Attachment

On October 15 I mentioned in regards to Thermopylae, the intraday DX level to be an interesting historical price.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=634

Please see a currency performance snapshot since that post (could only line it up to Oct 14 nor find the CAD index, sorry):
Attachment

Note that the AUD, which has a high target rate, outperformed the USD...
Informative and graphical post....nice work sinner

Stocky
  • #745
  • Nov 23, 2010 10:45am Nov 23, 2010 10:45am
Thanks for your replies sinner and bbakker.
Getting out of cable trade.
Daily lower tl being taken out.

Would consider long again after decent pull back.
  • #746
  • Nov 23, 2010 4:35pm Nov 23, 2010 4:35pm
Hi All... bloody hell, it's cold up north. Yep, had to return the UK this week, and so not had the time to lambast the events over the weekend, and subsequent fallout the last day or two.

That said, have been trading, and now hold two from an original three shorts on EU. Quite happy about it... hey, come on, you know my expectations for the Euro, and so believe the big dump might be on.

Also thinking of the UK exposure, and Cable's performance. Mind constantly returning to earlier comments made

Quoting 45Condor
...Goldman Sachs. Funny, GS are talking Cable up to 1.7, whilst John Taylor - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...ding-cuts.html - is talking of 1.4… both for year end. One wonders who is positioning the other side of their calls, and who is not.
IbKa, remember your projections? (I've taken you out of quote as it seems to cut the text away)

...Was just thinking through your statement below, and checked my charts and found the following.

First., between October and December 2008, we went from 1.7x to 14x so either of these folks could be right...

Second, just an observation that we started the month of November 2008 at 1.6106 (this month's high so far), then went as high as 1.6399 (you're suggesting a high of 1.6400), and then dropped to 1.4349 between then and December.

Now this simplistic mind of mine tends to look out for setups like this to watch out for any similarities in PA that might indicate a repeat of previous behaviours - so I'll be watching to see if we close this month at the monthly high, i.e. 1.6106, which will provide a monthly bullish candle, then I'll view the PA around 1.6399 for any indications we're going to drop, and sell down from there if that's the right thing to do at that time. Of course I'll be taking other opportunities in between while watching for this setup, but trading setups like the one described above is exactly where I make the most gains i.e. where I trade smaller than usual lots till I get confirmation of my thoughts, then go in bigger than I normally would, with an equivalent stop loss.

Of course, we could close anywhere other than 1.6106, and that would mean I'd need to look at other possibilities, and wait patiently before I take my first trade of the month, which I always do anyway. Developing a 'disciplined' approach has made a whole load of difference to my trading, I'm pleased to say.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #747
  • Nov 23, 2010 6:02pm Nov 23, 2010 6:02pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
That 'hmmmgh' is a sigh by the way, as in just wishing I could develop the discipline of 'remembering my projections' - in your last pm, you mentioned something 'I said last year'... I've been too embarrassed to ask you 'oh, and what was that again???',because I sure don't remember what I said last year (I can't even remember what I said at the weekend, never mind last year!).

Since I'm in 'confession' mode, I'll also admit to a shambolic trading week so far as I went long a 'teeny weeny' bit too early today on cable and the euro, despite my projections in my last post on Saturday, i.e. sell from 1.606/1.6079 to 1.5800 then buy up with a 100 pip sl from 1.5830 on cable and 1.3460 on the euro. Missed my alert to sell yesterday & didn't want to jump in mid-fall so decided to take revenge on the market today for the lost opportunity of yesterday by trying to pre-empt a rise today. Ended up jumping in early on going long - forcing me to hedge like a crazed woman all the way down to 1.5760 on cable - even my 'weave-on' turned grey today(bet you don't know what one of those is).

I'm now pondering we've come close to completing the weekly range in cable already i.e. 325 pips high to low, vs the usual 269 - 350 pips, (and today's just Tuesday). I'm therefore looking for a bottom to this drop and if we haven't already hit the floor today, then tomorrow I'll be preparing to buy around 1.5740 - with a 100pip sl for a ride back up to close the week higher than where we're at now at least (or do you think we've still got a lot further to drop this week?). Already thinking of where we might close the week i.e. 1.586, or the weekly open 1.600, or the monthly open i.e. 1.604, or at the weekly high, around 1.608, or even where we're at now?

On the euro, we've already done 425 pips this week and I'd be looking for a bottom around 75-100 pips below today's low if we get there tomorrow, or else will just watch my orders placed today roll back into profit. I'm not, however, adding another long on the Euro till the Swissy hits parity (as stated in two previous posts), even if this means storing my laptop at a pawnbrokers' shop so I can keep my fingers from pressing any more poxy buttons.

Mindful of the fact we haven't tested 1.62 and 1.39 on cable and the euro since we tested there early in the month, so looking to a test next week before any major fall, or is this too simplistic a view?

On your post below, while I suggested both the folks who said we'd see 1.7 and 1.4 this year could be right, it's crossed my mind since then that both of them could be wrong so we might see neither 1.7 or 1.4 by the end of the year. None of these figures appear probable to me from where I'm sitting here, i.e. over a thousand pips either way (got a headache so can't work out the exact number of pips), but I've learnt to never say never so will just put my laptop in storage and see what happens over the next few days. The weekly close should provide further clarity.

Have a good 'freezing' night up north!

i



Quoting 45Condor
Hi All... bloody hell, it's cold up north. Yep, had to return the UK this week, and so not had the time to lambast the events over the weekend, and subsequent fallout the last day or two.

That said, have been trading, and now hold two from an original three shorts on EU. Quite happy about it... hey, come on, you know my expectations for the Euro, and so believe the big dump might be on.

Also thinking of the UK exposure, and Cable's performance. Mind constantly returning to earlier comments made



IbKa, remember your projections? (I've...
  • #748
  • Nov 24, 2010 12:40am Nov 24, 2010 12:40am
IbkA... I know the feeling you are talking about. I guess the bullish run on DIX as posted earlier is still intact. 80ish level and beyond may be upon us. As per GU, i look forward to the redistribution of price towards the 1.59 handle (using market profile) and i will load more shorts if that opportunity presents itself else... it may all the way down to 1.57 and lower.
I tweaked my analysis a little this week amd killed most of my trades prematurely. its all part of the learning process.


Quoting IbkA
I'm now pondering we've come close to completing the weekly range in cable already i.e. 325 pips high to low, vs the usual 269 - 350 pips, (and today's just Tuesday). I'm therefore looking for a bottom to this drop and if we haven't already hit the floor today, then tomorrow I'll be preparing to buy around 1.5740 - with a 100pip sl for a ride back up to close the week higher than where we're at now at least (or do you think we've still got a lot further to drop this week?). Already thinking of where we might close the week i.e. 1.586, or the weekly...
  • #749
  • Nov 24, 2010 1:01am Nov 24, 2010 1:01am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
That's why I still deem the Swissy isn't done yet, but my problem isn't really my 'analysis'(?) if you want to call my posts as 'analysis' that is; my problem is not sticking to my own business. Yesterday I strayed onto another 'method's' thread on this forum, and just read some debates that had been going on since the weekend, and the little 'what if you're wrong about your analysis Ibk' question kindof popped up in my mind so I started building up longs just a bit higher than I'd said I would in my post on Saturday (I had no business wandering onto anyone else's thread, so serves me right really...), still struggling with the fact I can't post nice charts like everyone else on this thread or explain a 'method' to my opinions but, anyway...

All my trades will close today, most in profit, if we retrace 50%, and then I'll be waiting to see where we go from there. If we stop at 1.59 today and then fall, again, not sure how far we'll fall based on the 330 odd pips we've done already this week, i.e. thinking 1.5740/680 should cap the fall, in which case we would have completed over 400 pips this week, not unheard of, and again I'm not saying that's impossible. Just viewing they may leave that pleasure for next Tuesday i.e. for us to close the month that low before we know where we're going next month (was going to remind everyone on Monday night we have dropped 200 pips for the last 3 Tuesdays in case no one's noticed).

Off to work now, so won't post for the rest of the day, and just watching to see where we retrace too and, of course where we close the day. Alerts set for if we hit 1.0025/1.0060 on the Swissy, if we break that, plus the targets you've stated on the usdx, then 1.31 is next on the Euro and cable will go to 1.569 or thereabouts before any respite.

Btw, what trades did you kill prematuredly? Not longs from 3 weeks' ago???

Have a great day.

i

Quoting 50d
IbkA... I know the feeling you are talking about. I guess the bullish run on DIX as posted earlier is still intact. 80ish level and beyond may be upon us. As per GU, i look forward to the redistribution of price towards the 1.59 handle (using market profile) and i will load more shorts if that opportunity presents itself else... it may all the way down to 1.57 and lower.
I tweaked my analysis a little this week amd killed most of my trades prematurely. its all part of the learning process.
  • #750
  • Edited 3:23am Nov 24, 2010 3:11am | Edited 3:23am
The much talked about 1.33 on EU goes... will GU 1.57 give way?
USDIX 80 level touched as well...
WHAT NEXT???
  • #751
  • Nov 24, 2010 6:53am Nov 24, 2010 6:53am
Quoting 50d
The much talked about 1.33 on EU goes... will GU 1.57 give way?
USDIX 80 level touched as well...
WHAT NEXT???
Wait for the week to close out.
  • #752
  • Nov 24, 2010 7:19am Nov 24, 2010 7:19am
Smacked the 50 expansion level as discussed yesterday, and we are only midweek. Thursday may be trend change day, but with contagion and fear the talk of the town, any change may be short lived.

I'm with Sinner and will see where we are come Friday.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #753
  • Nov 24, 2010 9:06am Nov 24, 2010 9:06am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
For 1.57 to give way that is. We haven't been able to break 1.583 so far today, so they could readily take this down over the next few hours pre-London close, before any attempt tomorrow to bring some respite, if there's going to be any respite that is - back to work off lunch!

i



Quoting 50d
The much talked about 1.33 on EU goes... will GU 1.57 give way?
USDIX 80 level touched as well...
WHAT NEXT???
  • #754
  • Nov 24, 2010 1:50pm Nov 24, 2010 1:50pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hmmgh, changed my 'sentiment' earlier this PM solely due to our failure to clear 1.583 today. Just beginning to wonder if they're going to take us straight to 1.558 before any 'change'. Selling down, with SL at 1.5840.

Quoting 45Condor
but with contagion and fear the talk of the town, any change may be short lived.

I'm with Sinner and will see where we are come Friday.
  • #755
  • Nov 24, 2010 2:17pm Nov 24, 2010 2:17pm
Must admit, closed the second of the three shorts on EU, and am currently ruminating... well, okay, I admit it, guessing, as to what happens next at this 50 expansion. My Guppy profiles from the 4hr upwards are telling me to stay in, but my gut is telling me we are due a retrace of sorts, before any further significant drop. I wrote something similar a while back, did not follow my gut, and of course, PA did what I guessed. Murphy's Law says that if I follow my gut now, PA will not do what I expect. Oh, decisions, decisions, decisions...

Tomorrow is bank holiday in the US, and as I am not an aficionado to EU behaviour, I'm not entirely sure of how things go.

London may well be the financial centre of the world, but I'm always wary of the possible gentlemens' agreements that may, or may not, be in place for PA each day.

USINDX - as pointed out by 50d, and studied by Sinner - is at a somewhat critical point, and the governor of the BoE is back on stage tomorrow with his next act.

And to top all this off we have the big players wrapping up their positions for the year - so I am told - and so PA may become a little erratic until after new year.

And it was freezing this morning...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #756
  • Nov 24, 2010 3:50pm Nov 24, 2010 3:50pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Yep, King is taking center stage tomorrow and there's no saying where he wants cable to be, because that's definitely where we're going to be by the time he's finished talking. When I started tradinglast year, used to be able to tell the direction cable was going just by watching his face before he'd even opened his mouth.

I wouldn't have closed that euro short if I had one running from above, but profit banked is better than speculative profit so well done to you.

Just intrigued by why the big players would be 'wrapping up their positions' for the year now as the last 2 years has seen close to a 900 pip range in the month of December, so still potential for next month I think, or have I misunderstood you?

I've closed my short on cable as it's bedtime(!) and I'd rather join you all on the sidelines; will just now wait and see what King wants to do tomorrow.

Have a good night all.

i

Quoting 45Condor

The governor of the BoE is back on stage tomorrow with his next act.

And to top all this off we have the big players wrapping up their positions for the year - so I am told - and so PA may become a little erratic until after new year.

And it was freezing this morning...
  • #757
  • Nov 24, 2010 4:50pm Nov 24, 2010 4:50pm
I do not think the picture of last nights action was so clear.

We touched 80, perfect touch.

We did not touch the previous 80 low as shown by price labels and horizontal line.

I could still see the possibility of the DX going lower.

So I wait, patiently.

EDIT: Traders should be watching the market reaction to this (not the stupid Russia/China story)

FOMC
Quote
Most participants judged that a program of purchasing additional longer-term securities would put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and boost asset prices; some observed that it could also lead to a reduction in the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fom...killing-dollar
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  • #758
  • Nov 26, 2010 6:44am Nov 26, 2010 6:44am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Did you stay short on this third order?

1.318 here today, plus 1.55 on cable!!! Managed to miss out on most of the ride down as I said earlier in the week, due to me poking my nose into another thread trying to learn a 'method' - never again.

Good luck all, if trading today, and congrats to all who caught the full down move, and have a great weekend.

i

Quoting 45Condor
Must admit, closed the second of the three shorts on EU, and am currently ruminating... well, okay, I admit it, guessing, as to what happens next at this 50 expansion. ...
  • #759
  • Nov 26, 2010 9:52am Nov 26, 2010 9:52am
Cut it this morning after reading about possible troubles for Germany as the paymaster for Europe, and what I thought was a bottom forming. I'm curious to see what happens with the Credit Default Swaps in Germany, and if Portugal will get backdoor support to prove that it needs no help. If it can, perhaps the markets will like this sudden strength, and so the Euro may gain against the Dollar.

Of course, the markets may have already made up their minds, and so the question then becomes will they push the Euro up for a better price come bad news from Portugal, prior to shorting again, or will this thing just slide?

What the repercussions may be with the evolving commentary out of Germany I do not know, but surely Merkel and Brussels will come out with strong rhetoric/lies in order to settle any rumours.

Yes, maybe I should have left a runner on, but I've collected 100% on three shorts that have pretty much ran from 1.3726 down to 1.3288 - the FE levels shown in one of the previous charts, so one mustn't grumble.

Back home next week, so can regain focus.

Hope all have a wonderful weekend - be it cold or hot - wherever you may be.

Quoting IbkA
Did you stay short on this third order?

1.318 here today, plus 1.55 on cable!!! Managed to miss out on most of the ride down as I said earlier in the week, due to me poking my nose into another thread trying to learn a 'method' - never again.

Good luck all, if trading today, and congrats to all who caught the full down move, and have a great weekend.

i
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #760
  • Nov 26, 2010 10:18am Nov 26, 2010 10:18am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Scalped short today, just to make up for my silliness earlier in the week, but there's no signs of a bottom for cable or the euro yet, unless they stop at 15530 on cable for some respite. Being the end of the month, I don't suspect any respite will last, or any major gains against the dollar for now.

Well done on your 3 orders, profit banked is better than unrealised profit, or being stopped out, so kudos to you.

i

Still
Quoting 45Condor
Cut it this morning after reading about possible troubles for Germany as the paymaster for Europe, and what I thought was a bottom forming. I'm curious to see what happens with the Credit Default Swaps in Germany, and if Portugal will get backdoor support to prove that it needs no help. If it can, perhaps the markets will like this sudden strength, and so the Euro may gain against the Dollar.

Of course, the markets may have already made up their minds, and so the question then becomes will they push the Euro up for a better price come bad news...
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