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  • #641
  • Oct 21, 2010 5:47pm Oct 21, 2010 5:47pm
Quoting smikester
Our lack lustre spending review which, far from offering any positive whatsoever, revealed a government and banking sector banjaxed by debt and bereft of ideas.
At least they are admitting it now though, right?

Quote
What these cuts will achieve is higher unemployment and industrial unrest. Margaret Thatcher would approve, but this time round we have no family silver to sell. The only positive I can see will be the devaluation of the pound - hopefully stimulating our export prospects.

Re higher unemployment, my feeling is that this medicine was coming down the pipe whether the UK likes it or not! My question directly, is, do you think "we" are better off to take the bitter medicine now, or just keep as we have, kicking the can down the road?
  • #642
  • Oct 22, 2010 2:27am Oct 22, 2010 2:27am
Don't get me going Sinner! My views are radical. I was not the only one to forecast the situation we are now in, 10 years ago when there were 7 hairdressers and 1 nail parlour and 1 tanning parlour in a square mile near where I lived. Getting credit was easy. The average (middle class) Joe could get a credit card, use it for the deposit on a small house and live off the income. What nonsense. All the banks should be closed. Now.

Building societies were started to help people buy homes. Insurance companies were formed by groups of people who needed basic insurance. Banks were for savings and loans. None of these are clearly defined now and none of them seem to know what they are doing. So here I would step in with a basic regulation: "Do what you want, but make that a different company".

On jobs: Factories used to be full of people making stuff in poor working conditions and now look. Ten people watch a few robots spraying cars pink at a rate of 10 a minute. Shops used to serve people. Now you walk half a mile through a superstore before you can find an assistant. Even the check outs are getting automated. One hundred people used to be drafted in to work 14 hours to bring in the harvest. Now one farmer and a machine (made by robots) can do it.

What does all this mean? We are getting what we always wanted. In my opinion unemployment should no longer be a bad word. Working weeks should be reduced to 20 hours or less. Old people should be forced to work but fewer hours.

What impact are we having on the planet trying to sustain continued growth in demand? Now that's a different subject. Or is it?
Gone to a better place
  • #643
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:42am Oct 22, 2010 3:42am
I was going to post this chart independently but since TheLastCoke has posted it before me in his excellent thread I will post the link: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...hmentid=564196

It's come to the time of the year when we expect moves like this linked to equity sell off and I'm looking to trade this down to previous lows =<120.

Support I have at 128 - 127.75 area and I would expect this to be retested before we trundle on down. I'm not wishing for this but I'll certainly be trading it, if it goes.
Gone to a better place
  • #644
  • Edited 4:55am Oct 22, 2010 4:50am | Edited 4:55am
Well, the safari in Botswana is over, and the return to the real world, and hence access to editorial, does not bode well for most people.

Sterling: Hmm, mindful of what GS stated about Cable hitting 1.7 before the end of the year, but also of the impact that QE2 may have.

Stocky, Sinner and Smikester... some good posts and plenty to think of before placing my next trade. 50d - I have 1.64 as next stop up, but will wait for the turn on this current fall.

No charts available until home this weekend, and then have a flight to Malaysia come Monday. If I recall correctly, price is hitting the first of three fib levels that was breached previously, and may sink to 1.5570 before a turn. I am expecting some chop for a few days/weeks, whilst big money repositions itself prior to any QE2 announcement.

Still collecting my thoughts regarding the recent government budget announcements, but think that big money will like this. It remains to be seen what happens in the US, in order for the balance in Cable to be redefined.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #645
  • Oct 22, 2010 6:07am Oct 22, 2010 6:07am
Quoting smikester
Old people should be forced to work but fewer hours.
How old are you smikester? 12??

How was Botswana? Did you shoot an elephant? Who is GS? Sorry for all the questions.

Sentance wants to increase rates and only an early increase will give us 1.7 before New year. Have a look at the classic bearish bar we are forming this month. As it is "We are postponing a decision on further QE until November." It's a confused picture and reflects a confused administration.
Gone to a better place
  • #646
  • Oct 23, 2010 3:08pm Oct 23, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting Stocky Monk
2 consecutive Climax down bars followed by a high volume churn at 1.57 indicating demand entering....Early signs for a retracement. I would expect Asia and NY traders to push price up 5850 area (61.8 fib) so they can sell at a discount tomorrow prior to the chancellors review on spending and budget cuts.

Stocky
Excellent post stocky, how come i did not run into this thread earlier. I see 50d is also here
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #647
  • Oct 24, 2010 4:54am Oct 24, 2010 4:54am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hi there!

Still jet-setting across the globe I see.

I've quietly transformed into a trend trader, trying to catch the lows (which I'm getting much better at), and then trying to catch the lows to sell down from (which I'm not good at one yet!).

I've had a buy limit order at 1.5580, and 1.5470 since the beginning of last week but if we don't break 1.5730 going back up early enough this week, I'll be removing these to make sure we've bottomed out if we get to 1.5580.

Reason for caution? The budget hasn't been as well received as I expected it to have been, and while we saw a brief run up to 1.5877 following the news (I had it going to 1.5868); we saw an immediate rejection all the way back down to where we're at now and last week's candle was of course terribly bearish & the news headlines this weekend just make me a bit more weary of sticking to preconceived ideas this week.

The big money doesn't seem to like the new budget, but let's see what this week will bring, i.e. 1.582, 1.592 or 1.550 first; a 269, 300 or 350 pip week range; where will the month close, next Monday, 1.573, 1.582 or higher? Loads of questions, as always, but proceeding with caution and not being in the market all the time has helped with the learning process, and I learn something new every day even when not in the market.

Still working hard on trading both ways, i.e. buy low, tp, and then sell from high.

Started from buy low, move sl to break even, watch price go up and then come back down to hit sl at break even.

I've graduated to buy low, move sl to break even, tp at pre-defined target and then watch price go all the way back down, sometimes as far down as 400 pips!

Now trying to move to buy low, tp at pre-defined target, and then SELL!!!

Will get there eventually.

Off on Monday again? Well just think of us folks in London in the freezing cold while you're out there swanning about in the sun.

i

Quoting 45Condor

If I recall correctly, price is hitting the first of three fib levels that was breached previously, and may sink to 1.5570 before a turn. I am expecting some chop for a few days/weeks, whilst big money repositions itself prior to any QE2 announcement.

Still collecting my thoughts regarding the recent government budget announcements, but think that big money will like this. It remains to be seen what happens in the US, in order for the balance in Cable to be redefined.
  • #648
  • Oct 24, 2010 7:27pm Oct 24, 2010 7:27pm
GMAE traders, some thoughts to start off the week:

GBPUSD: neutral/bearish - waiting for break of 1.5650 to examine potential for new shorts.
EURUSD: neutral/bullish - waiting for a break of 1.4160 to examine potential for new longs.
USDCHF: neutral/bearish - waiting for a break of 0.9460 to examine potential for new shorts, however volatility is low and a move above 0.9880 in the next week will indicate strong potential for an upward move.
USDJPY: bearish - establish shorts where possible, re-evaluate on any upwards break of 81.90.
  • #649
  • Oct 24, 2010 10:16pm Oct 24, 2010 10:16pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hi Sn
Trust you're well.

Just looking at your analysis here, and I just wanted to see what timeframes you trade (are you an intraday trader?).

Just asking because a break of some of these levels (depends on how much of a break you were looking for though), could net 30 odd pips for you on each of these pairs before a bounce e.g Eur/USD could 'break' 1.4160, and then get rejected at 1.4193, USD/CHF off 0.9450 for a return north or indeed we could see a drop from 0.9880/0.9930 - I haven't mentioned Cable because it could do whatever it likes (went long with this one at 1.5674 just in case we don't go as low as I thought we would this week...).

So just wondering what timeframe you trade and what you do in between, i.e. while waiting for these pairs to hit your trigger points, also what do you constitute as a 'break'?

Sorry for all these questions!

i

Will view your reply in the sane hours of the morning.

Have a safe trading week.

i





Quoting sinner-
GMAE traders, some thoughts to start off the week:

GBPUSD: neutral/bearish - waiting for break of 1.5650 to examine potential for new shorts.
EURUSD: neutral/bullish - waiting for a break of 1.4160 to examine potential for new longs.
USDCHF: neutral/bearish - waiting for a break of 0.9460 to examine potential for new shorts, however volatility is low and a move above 0.9880 in the next week will indicate strong potential for an upward move.
USDJPY: bearish - establish shorts where possible, re-evaluate on any upwards break of 81.90.
  • #650
  • Oct 25, 2010 12:55am Oct 25, 2010 12:55am
Quoting IbkA
Hi Sn
Trust you're well.

Just looking at your analysis here, and I just wanted to see what timeframes you trade (are you an intraday trader?).
I trade full-time using intraday timeframes, with the sole purpose of bracketing trades in the daily frame.

Quote
Just asking because a break of some of these levels (depends on how much of a break you were looking for though), could net 30 odd pips for you on each of these pairs before a bounce e.g Eur/USD could 'break' 1.4160, and then get rejected at 1.4193, USD/CHF off 0.9450 for a return north or indeed we could see a drop from 0.9880/0.9930
I have no idea what this means. How "could" (why do you always say "could"? drives me crazy) a break of a level net me any definite number of pips before being rejected? How do you quantify that? Price is chaotic, it "could" do anything, so what.

I am about making money on a consistent basis. To me that entails knowing whether what I am doing can or can't make money on a consistent basis. Do I know what my expectancy is? Do I actually know, given any action I take in the market, what the possible and probable outcomes are? If I took my trading plan to a bank, would the manager give me a loan equivalent to the leverage I use in my trades?

My trading plan is extremely simple, robust and 100% compatible with the view of the market as a chaotic natural system.

1. Look for markets in phase 2 or phase 4. Trade these markets only. Buy strength (phase 2) and sell weakness (phase 4). To me, this is the number 1 newbie mistake. We all know markets are ranging 70% of the time and trending 30% of the time. Why treat every candle like it is trending? Look for the markets that are trending. Ignore flat markets!
http://image.minyanville.com/assets/...or%20psych.jpg
http://www.bigfatpurse.com/wp-conten...t-emotions.jpg
http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/im...rketstages.gif
2. I take intraday trades only in the markets phase direction.
3. I split each position up into chunks, some chunks are taken off the table intraday to pay the bills, other chunks are let to ride with the phase direction using trailing stop to keep account equity floating nicely (aka my book). My trailing stop technique generally allows me to exit <50 pip risk trades with >500 pip profit. Maybe I'll only make 1 or 2 such trades per financial quarter, but that is usually more than enough! Certainly since 2008 the potential for such huge runners has increased massively. There is nothing magical about this technique, patience and an understanding of the market structure are required. Different markets have different structures.

That is it. Nice and simple. Qualifying phase 2 or 4 can be done however you like. Most use moving averages. I use MAs, but in a vastly different way than most. Regarding entry, the entry signal is almost irrelevant, all you need is a robust setup with a positive expectancy. In my case all I require is a 1:1 positive intraday expectancy (that is, over a large enough statistical sample of trades, 1 unit of risk intraday translates into 1 unit of reward), however my actual expectancy is higher than this.

Quote
- I haven't mentioned Cable because it could do whatever it likes (went long with this one at 1.5674 just in case we don't go as low as I thought we would this week...).
IMHO all your analysis seem the same to me. I'm not saying it to be rude, and there's been a few times before where I wanted to say it but I didn't because I thought you would take it the wrong way. But honestly, I have no idea how you make money consistently in the market? Do you know what your expectancy is IbKA? Do you actually know, given any action you take in the market, what the possible and probable outcomes are? Do you think if you took your trading plan to a bank the manager would give you a business loan equivalent to the leverage you use in your trades?

Quote
So just wondering what timeframe you trade and what you do in between, i.e. while waiting for these pairs to hit your trigger points, also what do you constitute as a 'break'?

Sorry for all these questions!
A break is defined in the purest sense of chaos, 1 pip above a high price, 1 pip below a low price.

Anything <= H1 is the timeframe. Cost (spread, slippage, swap) meets profitability best around M30/H1 in my case. In forex, that means 24 potential 1 bar setups a day, 12 potential 2 bar setups, or 8 potential 3 bar setups. My favorite setup is actually a 5 bar setup, so at most, on the hourly chart, you would expect to see 4 of these a day per pair.

If you trade EURUSD 10 times a day with a 1 pip spread, that is an automatic cost of -10 pips to your expectancy. If your expectancy is less than 10 pips a day, how can you imagine to make money? There is a balance between trading frequency and trade expectancy (which is rarely, if ever, discussed on this forum) which must be struck.

What do I do in-between? Mostly quantify things. I collate participation data from sources like CME and a few ECNs, speak to other traders and compare notes, listen to trader chatter on the wire, complete T/A on higher timeframes, run scans on the stockmarket, examine the futures for the next opening equities market, count how many hours I've been awake, read financial news, that sort of thing.

Professional traders know what they are looking for and know the best way to make money is to just sit around waiting for that thing to come along. Chasing gets you nowhere. To that end, trading is boring. You sit around all day waiting for an alert to come up. You don't even watch the charts after the open hour!

No worries about the questions. Please keep asking, I am a firm believer that the best way to learn is to teach. Not to say "I know more and you know less", rather, the concept of trading knowledge appeals to me just as much as trading 1GBP for 2USD.

GMAE.
  • #651
  • Oct 25, 2010 1:45am Oct 25, 2010 1:45am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hi Sn

Sorry, what I meant by 'could' in these questions is 'might' which would probably sound even more infuriorating to you.

I was looking at support/resistance levels around where you said you were watching e.g. on cable, last week's low was 1.5649, so when you said you were looking for a break of 1.5650, I was looking at the probability of us doing what we did on 24/9/10 on the daily when we opened around the same area we opened this week at, before hitting 1.5640 just below last week's low, and then bouncing of this all the way up to 1.584 or so, that's why I asked the question 'how many pips would you view as a clear break of 1.5650'? Also, with the Euro, there's a weekly resistance I have at around 1.4194 (weekly high of 20. 1.10), and you said you were waiting for a clear break of this before considering going long - so when I asked what you do in between waiting for this setup, I wasn't trying to be rude or smart, I was just wondering if you'd buy up to 1.4194 first or not, before trading the break. Unfortunately, because I used naked charts to trade, I can't really post charts because there's absolutely nothing to show on these!

Also, you said my analysis is the same and you are absolutely spot on with this, i.e. I use naked charts basically to view my analysis, and becauseI am slowly building up the courage to trust my instincts I am making consistent profit in response to your second question without, as you said, having to be in the market all the time.

The only reason I'm making consistent profit is:

1. I've got more disciplined at taking profit at s/r points instead of trying to let them run 'to the pip' of where I expect these trades to get to (so, yes, I do have expectations but I am now a bit more flexible in these expectations).
2. I now 'always' use a stop loss plus have stopped closing trades before they've had time to mature i.e. at the sight of marginal drawdown I used to close my trades off only to see the trade go in my original intended direction.

And the single reason why I don't make more profit is because I still haven't developed the confidence to trade both ways, e.g. cable went to 1.610 last week, I had a target of 1.6096 in mind as it was going up, and sold for a few pips from there but then closed it off late on the 15th Oct. Friday night, only for us to see that 300 pip fall or so from Monday, so, again, I'm making consistent profit, but could still make more if I build up more confidence in trusting my instincts - but I'm not after shedloads of profit just after consistency as you rightly put it.

While I have expectancies, I always remember what DT used to say, i.e. be prepared to change your mind in a flash, and while I really thought today we'd do a drop first because of the bearish news re cable, when I noted we didn't break last week's low, I decided to go long with an SL below last week's low, in case my initial thinking was wrong - which it was, from the look of things.

I'm sorry if you were offended with my questions, I wasn't challenging, you - I don't know enough about trading to challenge most of you on here, I was just asking questions to see if there's anything I could add to the armoury of knowledge I'm trying to build up to become successful in this when I retire from my full time job.

i

Quoting sinner-
I have no idea what this means. How "could" (why do you always say "could"? drives me crazy) a break of a level net me any definite number of pips before being rejected? How do you quantify that? Price is chaotic, it "could" do anything, so what.

I am about making money on a consistent basis. To me that entails knowing whether what I am doing can or can't make money on a consistent basis. Do I know what my expectancy is? Do I actually know, given any action I take in the market, what the possible and probable outcomes are?...
  • #652
  • Oct 25, 2010 2:04am Oct 25, 2010 2:04am
Quoting IbkA
Hi Sn

Sorry, what I meant by 'could' in these questions is 'might' which would probably sound even more infuriorating to you.
It only annoys me, because I know you have an opinion! I want to hear your opinion. Not mights and maybes, I see a billion of those looking at the chart! What are you looking for this week? Where do you see enhanced chance of profit? For example, in the parameters I posted this morning it is very clear what I am looking for, and where I see an enhanced chance of profit.

Quote
I was looking at support/resistance levels around where you said you were watching e.g. on cable, last week's low was 1.5649, so when you said you were looking for a break of 1.5650, I was looking at the probability of us doing what we did on 24/9/10 on the daily when we opened around the same area we opened this week at, before hitting 1.5640 just below last week's low, and then bouncing of this all the way up to 1.584 or so, that's why I asked the question 'how many pips would you view as a clear break of 1.5650'?

Fair enough I guess, the answer is simple: I am looking for nothing in particular in terms of pips. My only goal is to be in the market at levels which represent supply/demand shifts. Once I am in, I will mostly take whatever the market gives, and leave a little on the table at reduced risk for my book.

Quote
Also, with the Euro, there's a weekly resistance I have at around 1.4194 (weekly high of 20. 1.10), and you said you were waiting for a clear break of this before considering going long - so when I asked what you do in between waiting for this setup, I wasn't trying to be rude or smart, I was just wondering if you'd buy up to 1.4194 first or not, before trading the break.

Didn't think you were being rude

Read what I wrote again. Not trading the break. Looking for broken levels as the trigger to reignite my interest in trading in one direction or the other. I am not interested in phase 1 or 3 markets!

Quote
Unfortunately, because I used naked charts to trade, I can't really post charts because there's absolutely nothing to show on these!

Take a chart, and label it for us! We would love to see what you are seeing.

Quote
Also, you said my analysis is the same and you are absolutely spot on with this, i.e. I use naked charts basically to view my analysis, and becauseI am slowly building up the courage to trust my instincts I am making consistent profit in response to your second question without, as you said, having to be in the market all the time.

What I was referring to is the constant "coulds", which always made me wonder what actually triggers you to trade, if everything is a "could".

Quote
And the single reason why I don't make more profit is because I still haven't developed the confidence to trade both ways, e.g. cable went to 1.610 last week, I had a target of 1.6096 in mind as it was going up, and sold for a few pips from there but then closed it off late on the 15th Oct. Friday night, only for us to see that 300 pip fall or so from Monday, so, again, I'm making consistent profit, but could still make more if I build up more confidence in trusting my instincts - but I'm not after shedloads of profit just after consistency as you...

I am not sure how to take this statement exactly. If you are expecting to buy the trend, why worry about the retracement? Or is your goal to buy all dips and sell all peaks?

Quote
While I have expectancies, I always remember what DT used to say, i.e. be prepared to change your mind in a flash, and while I really thought today we'd do a drop first because of the bearish news re cable, when I noted we didn't break last week's low, I decided to go long with an SL below last week's low, in case my initial thinking was wrong - which it was, from the look of things.

I think you have mixed up "expectations" (what we expect to happen) with expectancy:

http://tradermike.net/2004/05/trading_101_expectancy/

Quote
I'm sorry if you were offended with my questions, I wasn't challenging, you - I don't know enough about trading to challenge most of you on here, I was just asking questions to see if there's anything I could add to the armoury of knowledge I'm trying to build up to become successful in this when I retire from my full time job.

i

Like I said, didn't think you were trying to challenge me, it's just always driven me crazy the way you post, because I know your opinion is as good as anyone elses here, yet you seem to constantly be second guessing.

My advice for the armoury, trade phase 2 and 4. Buy strength, sell weakness. Ignore flatness!
  • #653
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:32am Oct 25, 2010 8:32am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
I am not sure how to take this statement exactly. If you are expecting to buy the trend, why worry about the retracement? Or is your goal to buy all dips and sell all peaks?
Maybe that is my goal then, i.e. to buy a dip when I view we've got to the bottom, and hold this till we get to the peak. As I said, I haven't got to the point of selling all peaks, i.e. I tend to buy a dip, hold till I view we've peaked, and then take profit and just watch till we get to a dip again, rather than sell from the peak and hold till we get to the bottom again.


I know your opinion is as good as anyone elses here, yet you seem to constantly be second guessing.

When I 'second guess' or 'speculate' on this thread, I'm usually asking questions of myself and others, to get others' opinion as well as confirm my thought processes with others . I do have opinions but if you go back on my posts from last year (many in the recycle bin from DT's thread), you'll find that most of my posts were questions rather than opinions. When I believed cable was going to 1.6096 a fortnight ago, I dared not tell anyone, bar my husband because I simply couldn't explain why I thought that's where we were heading; same goes for after the budget when I just looked at the chart and 'saw' 1.5868 (we went 9 pips above this). The problem I have is I often can't articulate 'why' I believe a pair is going to get somewhere and drop or rise (for reasons explained in a PM I've just sent you), so when I come on this thread and see people like SM and 45Condor posting views that almost all the time align with mine, I then go and try to analyse their reasons just to confirm my views which I really can't articulate for reasons explained in my PM.


What I was referring to is the constant "coulds", which always made me wonder what actually triggers you to trade, if everything is a "could".

What triggers me to trade? Once I've got my 'ifs and coulds' written down at the weekend, I normally wait to see when we arrive at one of my 'decision points', observe the PA at the time, plus the patterns on the charts and candles, then I either take the trade or leave it. E.g. I had an opinion yesterday that we would test 1.5580 and possibly lower due to the bearish news re Cable. However, I also thought, if we didn't break 1.5662 or last week's low at 1.564x, then we were probably headed for a test of 1.5750 bfore any possible retrace; and knowing the AUD news was due out overnight I deemed the probability of us getting there was good enough for me to enter where I did. I was surprised we went straight through 1.573, but also had 1.577 as a resistance point in my mind from last week and happened to be at home at 07.05 this morning however, when the 5 minute candle indicated to me at that exact point that we may have come to the end of the bull run for the morning at least. As explained in my PM, I just view the visuals on any pair and if it ties in with what I expect to happen at that point, I'll take the trade.

I've had a pending buy order on the swissy for over a month now at 0.9480, and we got to 0.9463 and proceeded North, again, that wasn't based on any analysis as we haven't been down there to my knowledge n a while, but I just took a look at the charts and sensed we'd stop there and we did (I blew a pending sell order that triggered on Friday night at 0.9800 by closing it that night for 15 pips not wanting to leave the trade open over the weekend and have just looked to see where we are now i.e. a good 100 plus pips south, that's the sort of stuff I really want to stop doing!).

When I'm able to get my head round all the Fibonnaci stuff, and moving averages etc., I'm sure I'll make a far better trader than I am today and will probably come up with some wonderful charts and detailed analysis, but my goal, for now, isn't to do this to earn a living as I have a day job, it's for totally different reasons and knowing that my opinion aligns with that of some of the brilliant traders on this thread does mean a lot to me and when it doesn't align, I'll ask questions of the trader, just to try and see things from their angle.

Take a chart, and label it for us! We would love to see what you are seeing.

On the chart issue, again, you'll see that my few previous posts with charts have nothing but a plain chart with a single arrow going up or down on it which isn't of much help to anyone. In May, when I posted a chart with my analysis, plus what I viewed to be a 'head and shoulders' picture, I was apparently wrong about the head and shoulders, even though my analysis was correct & someone kindly sent me a manual on all the different candle stick patterns and chart formations after this, which I'm yet to read because I just can't take it all in, but will get round to doing this at some point.

I've just about got round to setting alerts at points where I believe any pair or commodity is going to turn, and then writing a note to remind myself of what I thought would happen there, and I am usually pretty accurate to within 10 pips or so in most instances, except where I get things really wrong and using stop losses always takes care of these few instances for me.

I will get there, so do bear with me on all these questions and vague 'ifs and coulds' for now...

i


Quoting sinner-
It only annoys me, because I know you have an opinion! I want to hear your opinion. Not mights and maybes, I see a billion of those looking at the chart! What are you looking for this week? Where do you see enhanced chance of profit? For example, in the parameters I posted this morning it is very clear what I am looking for, and where I see an enhanced chance of profit.



Fair enough I guess, the answer is simple: I am looking for nothing in particular in terms of pips. My only goal is to be in the market at levels which represent supply/demand...
  • #654
  • Oct 25, 2010 11:01am Oct 25, 2010 11:01am
Hi All.

Smikester: The only shooting that I did was with a camera.

GS – Goldman Sachs. Funny, GS are talking Cable up to 1.7, whilst John Taylor - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...ding-cuts.html - is talking of 1.4… both for year end. One wonders who is positioning the other side of their calls, and who is not.

GS may not be playing the markets, considering their recent bad press and need to be seen to have regained probity in the eyes of the public and investors. That said, are they really that powerful in the markets? They may be damned if price does as they state, and damned if it does not; as they will then be accused of playing the market if price subsequently hits 1.4 – I’m sure they will be hedged in some way in order to protect against a drop.

John Taylor – Well, outside of the forex market, few, if any, know of this chap, so there may be no need for him to exhibit any scruples.

IbKa: The little time that I spent at home – currently sat in Schiphol airport prior to departure to Malaysia – confirms what was happening prior to my holiday. That is, Summer has certainly left us.

Regarding your analysis… well the two 4hr charts I submit show the price has failed to breach the MP on chart 1/standard white 50 fib on chart 2, and subsequently returned the WP/descending red MAs of the Guppy profile. The current base in price agrees somewhat with some of your analysis. A weekly chart that I am running – chart 3 - shows the Guppy profile making a turn north, and I take the recent retrace south last week as a 1,2,3 move in price… price currently completing move 2. I will therefore wait for price/the blue MAs on a 4hr to breach north of the red MAs, and then for a retrace of these back into the red MAs, prior to a further move north that is supported by the red MAs heading north. This will be my confirmation of trend north, and hence next entry. As you can surmise from this, it requires patience, but is far more relaxed in trading frequency. Exactly what financial event/news the market chooses for this spurt remains to be seen. My targets are defined by my fib levels, but I will be looking for the 1.64 region in the first instance.

Of course, with this being forex, the reverse may happen, and I will adjust opinion accordingly. I also have the FT and WSJ to make my way through after this post – both of which have front page runs on the G20 and currency war speculation. Should be interesting to read.

Sinner: The diagrammatic analysis of psychology is one to be saved.

Stocky: As always, lucid submission with its normal level of high merit.
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  • #655
  • Oct 25, 2010 3:00pm Oct 25, 2010 3:00pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Welcome back lucky 'tourist'.

Was just thinking through your statement below, and checked my charts and found the following.

First., between October and December 2008, we went from 1.7x to 14x so either of these folks could be right in that we could travel from one of those extremes to the other in the next 2 months - still waiting to see if we have riots on the streets in London, and all the uprisings being threatened by the unions (though that's not really the style of us folks in the UK so the impact of these might not be as severe on the pound as expected).

Second, just an observation that we started the month of November 2008 at 1.6106 (this month's high so far), then went as high as 1.6399 (you're suggesting a high of 1.6400), and then dropped to 1.4349 between then and December.

Now this simplistic mind of mine tends to look out for setups like this to watch out for any similarities in PA that might indicate a repeat of previous behaviours - so I'll be watching to see if we close this month at the monthly high, i.e. 1.6106, which will provide a monthly bullish candle, then I'll view the PA around 1.6399 for any indications we're going to drop, and sell down from there if that's the right thing to do at that time. Of course I'll be taking other opportunities in between while watching for this setup, but trading setups like the one described above is exactly where I make the most gains i.e. where I trade smaller than usual lots till I get confirmation of my thoughts, then go in bigger than I normally would, with an equivalent stop loss.

Of course, we could close anywhere other than 1.6106, and that would mean I'd need to look at other possibilities, and wait patiently before I take my first trade of the month, which I always do anyway. Developing a 'disciplined' approach has made a whole load of difference to my trading, I'm pleased to say.

Welcome back again, and hope to read your musings soon.

i

[quote=45Condor;4120954]Hi All.

GS – Goldman Sachs. Funny, GS are talking Cable up to 1.7, whilst John Taylor - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...ding-cuts.html - is talking of 1.4… both for year end. One wonders who is positioning the other side of their calls, and who is not.

quote]
  • #656
  • Edited 9:17am Oct 26, 2010 8:38am | Edited 9:17am
watch the single prints below 5830 down to 1.58....although not a bad place to continue this up move given we have a daily profile length of 200pip and the hrly 200ma at 5830 also 38.2 of todays rise im reluctant to think we will make new highs before filling these single prints below 5830. A break below 5830 will give us increased momentum to 1.58.

Stocky
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  • #657
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:09am Oct 26, 2010 9:09am
Few EU charts.....I see a reversal pattern occuring. Given we are at the 61.8 retrace of the drop since 1.5145. We have been ranging over the last 2 weeks on the daily between 1.38 and 1.41. There is obvious supply entering around here which is visible from the high volume daily Pins forming. The monthly bar is showing VSA signs it is to complete as a high volume churn bar which is a strong reversal sign. I wouldnt jump in short right yet but wait for the 4 hour head and shoulders formation to break its neckline and wait for the pullback before entry.

Stocky
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  • #658
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:28am Oct 26, 2010 9:28am
Smikester, tell me you bagged this one.
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  • #659
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:51am Oct 26, 2010 9:51am
good to see you back condor!

Stocky
  • #660
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:06am Oct 26, 2010 10:06am
... although I wish I was still in Botswana - no media, and so a soothed mind free of the daily turmoil seen in editorial and the charts.

Hey ho, no luck, and so it is back to spitting invective and sticking the finger up to those that purport to know how to lead us. Come on!!!

Quoting Stocky Monk
good to see you back condor!

Stocky
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
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