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AUD/USD

  • #25,401
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:42pm Nov 21, 2010 9:42pm
Quoting Alihuzaifa
my chart says it shud not go above 9945...but i am just speculating.

Trade what YOU see Alihuzaifa.

You don't have to justify anything and "Domino" shouldn't be bullying you like that.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #25,402
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:44pm Nov 21, 2010 9:44pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Trade what YOU see Alihuzaifa.

You don't have to justify anything and "Domino" shouldn't be bullying you like that.
yeah my bad. I did it like a tool.. what i ment was.. take a relook and find reasons not to trade it.. if there are none.. then trade it..
  • #25,403
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:50pm Nov 21, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting domino
so ur gonna short in a uptrend... against the interest rate differential .. into a support line with a stop easily within bouncing area off of support.. with take profit on the opposite side of support.. ? just seeing if I got that right.. and under 1:1 risk:reward..
"into a support line with a stop easily within bouncing area off of support"

He's obviously playing the high of the last couple hours. Do I like where his stop is? Not really, but there is a rational behind it and your "critique" is sh!tty and mean spirited.


As far as interest rate differentials go.....

There are always trends that go against this spread. There are always major factors that affect currency rates that far exceed this factor. If currency trading was so simple as trading with the positive rate, well, we'd all be gazillionaires.

And as far as the R:R.....

How about helping him by telling him that his TP should be lower . Maybe, I dunno, be helpful?
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #25,404
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:02pm Nov 21, 2010 10:02pm
sure...but what Domino says still makes sence
Biggest joker
  • #25,405
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:03pm Nov 21, 2010 10:03pm
Quoting TexasforEX
"into a support line with a stop easily within bouncing area off of support"

He's obviously playing the high of the last couple weeks. Do I like where his stop is? Not really, but there is a rational behind it and your "critique" is sh!tty and mean spirited.
im pointing out the factors..
1. the pair is in an uptrend..
2. the us gov is TRYING to devalue the dollar
3. the interest is paying positive interest buyside
4. the orderflow is buyside
5. it just broke wave highs and is resuming trend
6. its not a bounce coming off resistance
7. its trying to push price through a support zone
8. stop is out in the open and in the general war path
9. the take profit is in a hard to reach spot
10. the trendline he is drawing is 1 fixed point. and the 2nd point is not a wave its floating price
11. with a low probability trade the MM doesnt match reward is less than risk

here are some similarities to this style of trading

-nuclear blast has occured and people are running away.. Im going to run towards the blast to seek shelter..
-there is a twinky in a pit with rabid pit bulls and a package of twinkies in the next room.. Im going to dive into the pit to get one twinky.

Quote
As far as interest rate differentials go.....

There are always trends that go against this spread.
yeah its called risk aversion.. this is a trend that is going with the interest rate differential..
Quote
There are always major factors that affect currency rates that far exceed this factor. If currency trading was so simple as trading with the positive rate, well, we'd all be gazillionaires.
.. no but wed all be trading efficiently
Quote
And as far as the R:R.....

How about helping him by telling him that it should be lower . Maybe, I dunno, be helpful?
i am .. telling him what to look for.

i said my bad

edit: anyways telling him to lower tp would be making it harder to hit and even lower probability
  • #25,406
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:10pm Nov 21, 2010 10:10pm
I dont mind critic some times it teach's valuable lessons...thanx
  • #25,407
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:11pm Nov 21, 2010 10:11pm
Quoting domino
10. the trendline he is drawing is 1 fixed point. and the 2nd point is not a wave its floating price
good point
  • #25,408
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:14pm Nov 21, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting Alihuzaifa
I dont mind critic some times it teach's valuable lessons...thanx
thats all i ment it to be ... honestly im waiting for a drop that hasnt happened yet im sure its priced in as a last minute panic before the irish bailouts and china tightening credit and its effects on Aud.. well see tho im long with rates from much lower prices on audjpy not so much usd
  • #25,409
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:19pm Nov 21, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting Alihuzaifa
I dont mind critic some times it teach's valuable lessons...thanx

Sure does. I hope you learned a couple lessons in the last 15 minutes because there were plenty to be had.

Don't mind me too much, I just hate bullying.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #25,410
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:23pm Nov 21, 2010 10:23pm
Quoting domino
thats all i ment it to be ... honestly im waiting for a drop that hasnt happened yet im sure its priced in as a last minute panic before the irish bailouts and china tightening credit and its effects on Aud.. well see tho im long with rates from much lower prices on audjpy not so much usd

Anyone who is trading the Aussie currently should look at the kiwi and aud/nzd chart, imho.

They are always intertwined and it's pretty common for the Kiwi and Aussie to "drag" each other. If a trader thinks there is going to be divergence between the two, than he/she should feel confident that the aud/nzd can move accordingly.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #25,411
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:27pm Nov 21, 2010 10:27pm
It's on support now, a fake of support will target 9900, if it is a short (it is possible) it would show an the PA around this area later on.
Biggest joker
  • #25,412
  • Edited 10:46pm Nov 21, 2010 10:27pm | Edited 10:46pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Anyone who is trading the Aussie currently should look at the kiwi and aud/nzd chart, imho.

They are always intertwined and it's pretty common for the Kiwi and Aussie to "drag" each other. If a trader thinks there is going to be divergence between the two, than he/she should feel confident that the aud/nzd can move accordingly.
yeah that downgrade was vicious... looks to me like the OF is built up incredibly strong to the upside for the london breakout on the aud
1h inside pinbar against support
edit: also whats good for a NZD short? an aud long hedge
  • #25,413
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:54pm Nov 21, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting domino
im pointing out the factors..
1. the pair is in an uptrend..
2. the us gov is TRYING to devalue the dollar
3. the interest is paying positive interest buyside
4. the orderflow is buyside
5. it just broke wave highs and is resuming trend
6. its not a bounce coming off resistance
7. its trying to push price through a support zone
8. stop is out in the open and in the general war path
9. the take profit is in a hard to reach spot
10. the trendline he is drawing is 1 fixed point. and the 2nd point is not a wave its floating price
11. with a low probability...

warren buffet said, b greed when others fear, b fear when others greed.

XD haha~~~
Swinger Club
  • #25,414
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:55pm Nov 21, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting domino
yeah that downgrade was vicious... looks to me like the OF is built up incredibly strong to the upside for the london breakout on the aud
1h inside pinbar against support
edit: also whats good for a NZD short? an aud long hedge

Might as well trade the aud/nzd directly. I rarely hedge, not a big fan of it.

The kiwi chart looks horrible, as to be expected. Still, it broke thru pretty important support around 7750. Price needs to get above that before any thoughts of a reversal.

Divergence between aussie and kiwi will be short lived. Longing the aussie is not my cup of tea right now. No thanks.

Aud/nzd needs to get above the swing high at 1.2960 before I'd start thinking about that heading higher. Aussie has too many headwinds, in my book anyway.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #25,415
  • Edited 11:12pm Nov 21, 2010 11:00pm | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Might as well trade the aud/nzd directly. I rarely hedge, not a big fan of it.

The kiwi chart looks horrible, as to be expected. Still, it broke thru pretty important support around 7750. Price needs to get above that before any thoughts of a reversal.

Divergence between aussie and kiwi will be short lived. Longing the aussie is not my cup of tea right now. No thanks.
im just saying Ive worked doing strategy procurement for a couple of city firms .. I have a decent Idea of how the work I just bet they buy simply for the hedging factor .. as those managers are going to be screaming cover your F'in Downside risk.. wtf do you think this is a bucketshop
doesnt matter tho as I dont trade short term charts.. but just my bet on the whole thing
also with nzd being cut it actually gives aud a bigger chance for running long as more firms put on the hedge.. because the longer you hold the hedge the better..
  • #25,416
  • Nov 21, 2010 11:11pm Nov 21, 2010 11:11pm
Quoting domino
im just saying Ive worked doing strategy procurement for a couple of city firms .. I have a decent Idea of how the work I just bet they buy simply for the hedging factor .. as those managers are going to be screaming cover your F'in Downside risk.. wtf do you think this is a bucketshop
doesnt matter tho as I dont trade short term charts.. but just my bet on the whole thing

I guess. Anyone who has managed me before would just ask me to reduce leverage if the risk was to high. I would get into a big argument if someone told me to hedge my position with a different currency pair without looking at that chart.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #25,417
  • Nov 21, 2010 11:11pm Nov 21, 2010 11:11pm
The good short may be coming up on the pound....
Biggest joker
  • #25,418
  • Edited 11:32pm Nov 21, 2010 11:17pm | Edited 11:32pm
Looks like a good entry for the kiwi. I'm short at 7750.

Short euro @ 13784 and pound @ 16063. This looks like a textbook Franky fake to me, but we'll see.

Ok, one final short of kiwi at 7770. That's all for now, lol.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #25,419
  • Nov 21, 2010 11:19pm Nov 21, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I guess. Anyone who has managed me before would just ask me to reduce leverage if the risk was to high. I would get into a big argument if someone told me to hedge my position with a different currency pair without looking at that chart.
yeah im not saying its the right thing.. i mean like what 70% of these dude lose money cause the more people there are out there hedging and trying to arb the more they kill the arb or hedge.. but ... it doesnt mean there wont be a price impact from it..

Yeah we all get yelled at to reduce leverage especially if your trading above your allocations.
  • #25,420
  • Nov 21, 2010 11:21pm Nov 21, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I guess. Anyone who has managed me before would just ask me to reduce leverage if the risk was to high. I would get into a big argument if someone told me to hedge my position with a different currency pair without looking at that chart.
must not have been a hedge than.. trading arcade or proprietary firm?
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