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A simple breakout system

  • #41
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:49am Nov 19, 2010 9:49am
Quoting jmag
I did an eyeball backtest of this month and there are some big losses in the beginning, some 280 pips. Then the last couple of weeks bring it back. Right now it's around break even for the month. This is with a 20 pip tp and stop at other end of box.

Seems like a good entry. I wonder if we can tighten the stops.

i use 20. i dont think you could get away with less tbh.

some markets are far better for breakouts but its upto you to keep track of which ones.

changing your stop to 30 has a significant difference and even changing the times your running your breakouts every few months.

mauro trailing is good but you can significantly improve things manually closing.

breakouts are by far my favourite system for forex.
  • #42
  • Nov 19, 2010 7:25pm Nov 19, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting jmag
I did an eyeball backtest of this month and there are some big losses in the beginning, some 280 pips. Then the last couple of weeks bring it back. Right now it's around break even for the month. This is with a 20 pip tp and stop at other end of box.

Seems like a good entry. I wonder if we can tighten the stops.

i still dont understand where the entries are on the charts ? how do you decide the entry ?

also, after a whole month if you are break even then is it really worth trading this system ?
  • #43
  • Nov 19, 2010 11:18pm Nov 19, 2010 11:18pm
Quoting whatfx
i still dont understand where the entries are on the charts ? how do you decide the entry ?

also, after a whole month if you are break even then is it really worth trading this system ?
The entries are shown in the first post using the boxes drawn at 2-4, 9-11, and 16-18 GMT. As is, with stops at other end of box, it may not be worth trading. But the entry seems good so maybe with adjusting stops, like some have mentioned moving to break even and/or using smaller stops and/or manual exit, this entry could be useful. I'm going to continue testing it with adjustments.
  • #44
  • Nov 20, 2010 1:43am Nov 20, 2010 1:43am
where we have to change it?can you please make this clear for GMT time set to 0?
regards
fred
Quoting ES Trader
I use FXpro because the price seem to be pretty accurate. Please make sure you have changed the GMT to Zero.
  • #45
  • Nov 20, 2010 2:08am Nov 20, 2010 2:08am
are these time given below are GMT time?
Asian session : 4:00-6:00
European Session: 11:00-13:00
American Sessions: 18:00-20:00
regards
fred
  • #46
  • Nov 20, 2010 2:57am Nov 20, 2010 2:57am
GMT+2
  • #47
  • Nov 20, 2010 6:40am Nov 20, 2010 6:40am
Quoting jmag
The entries are shown in the first post using the boxes drawn at 2-4, 9-11, and 16-18 GMT. As is, with stops at other end of box, it may not be worth trading. But the entry seems good so maybe with adjusting stops, like some have mentioned moving to break even and/or using smaller stops and/or manual exit, this entry could be useful. I'm going to continue testing it with adjustments.
ok. still dont get it.

on the first post it shows coloured boxes. now when do you enter when the colourured box starts to form ? or after it has formed ? and how do you know whether to enter long or short ?

also the session times stated on post 1 by es-trader, is that GMT + 2 (or GMT + 1, as it is british winter time now).

cheers
  • #48
  • Nov 20, 2010 8:28am Nov 20, 2010 8:28am
Quoting whatfx
ok. still dont get it.

on the first post it shows coloured boxes. now when do you enter when the colourured box starts to form ? or after it has formed ? and how do you know whether to enter long or short ?

also the session times stated on post 1 by es-trader, is that GMT + 2 (or GMT + 1, as it is british winter time now).

cheers
The times for the boxes, 2-4, 9-11, and 16-18 GMT, I think we established are correct according to ES's charts. Whether you want to use that converted to GMT+2 or whatever, it is still the same time.

Now as far as the indicator, I can't install that on my platform, but it looks to me, and I could be wrong, that it uses the high and low of only the second and third bars of the box. So we are not even using a three bar box, but a two bar box. Maybe it has to do with the way candles are drawn as opposed to ohlc bars on differing platforms, etc. I don't know but I have been using the highest and the lowest of the second and third bars. For the high, set limit entry long at high + 5 pips. Other way for low.
  • #49
  • Nov 20, 2010 11:45pm Nov 20, 2010 11:45pm
"Whether you want to use that converted to GMT+2 or whatever, it is still the same time." is not a clear answer for everybody.

i dont know why es trader does not make this clear ,so everybody knows how to set up the time according their broker's time.

one more time i'm asking es trader that those time in first post is GMT or not?
please make this clear.
regards
Fred

Quoting jmag
The times for the boxes, 2-4, 9-11, and 16-18 GMT, I think we established are correct according to ES's charts. Whether you want to use that converted to GMT+2 or whatever, it is still the same time.

Now as far as the indicator, I can't install that on my platform, but it looks to me, and I could be wrong, that it uses the high and low of only the second and third bars of the box. So we are not even using a three bar box, but a two bar box. Maybe it has to do with the way candles are drawn as opposed to ohlc bars on differing platforms,...
  • #50
  • Nov 21, 2010 12:40am Nov 21, 2010 12:40am
Seems to me that people are losing sight of the concept while trying to get a definitive time and range etc.

Post #1 indicates that there will be movement towards the end of the session.
A session is say 8 hours and there will be a movement from hour 6 or 7.
Choose a range - 1 hour or 2 hours bar hi and lo.
Look for the breakout QED.

I use half hour ranges, they are smaller, the breakouts are bigger.

Peter Bain and Co are now proposing that there is a 'London Close' breakout and has a costly webinar to sell it.
Craig Harris mentions the same thing on his site.

This all backs the basis of this thread. There are other elements involved with the late London session, NY open to name one.

My view is select a session, select a time and a range size, straddle it and hope for the best.
  • #51
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:24am Nov 21, 2010 7:24am
Quoting fredgold3434
"Whether you want to use that converted to GMT+2 or whatever, it is still the same time." is not a clear answer for everybody.

i dont know why es trader does not make this clear ,so everybody knows how to set up the time according their broker's time.

one more time i'm asking es trader that those time in first post is GMT or not?
please make this clear.
regards
Fred
Fred, I am sorry for the confusion. It is time on Fxpro. I did not make any change.
  • #52
  • Nov 21, 2010 1:17pm Nov 21, 2010 1:17pm
Ok,thanks ,now we know how to set it up

so it will be those time
2:00-4:00 GMT asian
9:00-11:00 GMT Europe
16:00-18:00 GMT USA
regards
fred
Quoting ES Trader
Fred, I am sorry for the confusion. It is time on Fxpro. I did not make any change.
  • #53
  • Nov 21, 2010 1:26pm Nov 21, 2010 1:26pm
This thread is a perfect example of one of the reasons why people find FX difficult...... They can't even determine what timezone they are in or trading.
Add to that the difference in the charts between brokers............
  • #54
  • Nov 21, 2010 6:02pm Nov 21, 2010 6:02pm
Quoting tradestar1
This thread is a perfect example of one of the reasons why people find FX difficult...... They can't even determine what timezone they are in or trading.
Add to that the difference in the charts between brokers...
Beg to differ Tradestar, the problem is that they want someone to tell them exactly what and when to trade.

These breakouts don't happen at xx:xx GMT etc on a daily basis. A pair is likely to move up or down during the course of the session.

We prepare for the breakout by having a range set at sometime before a session's open and hope for the best.

For this thread we set a range half way through. I am using 12:00 to 12:30 broker time.
What if you used your broker time 12:00 to 12:30 but it was + one hour or - one hour?
Does it matter? Not a bit but there would still be people asking "What time is that exactly?" ..."Do I have to wait for the 12:30 candle to close?"..."What TF do you use?"..."Does this work on €$?"
  • #55
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:05pm Nov 21, 2010 8:05pm
guys

i have checked the i sessions indicator on my mt4 chart. still not sure of the entry and exits.

on each coloured box there are about 3 bars. so is entry the high and low of these 3 bars ? if this is the case then none of the trades have worked. cos the high gets broken then immediately reverses down ! the low get broken only by 3 pips then immediately reverses back up.

in my backtest oast 7 days, i only found 1 winner and the rest all losers.

am i missing something here ? can es trader explain the entry / exits or someone else can ?
  • #56
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:12pm Nov 21, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting whatfx
guys ... cos the high gets broken then immediately reverses down ! the low get broken only by 3 pips then immediately reverses back up....
That is how it works. There is no gurantee!! Look further along the charts. Does the price break later?

It is all 'lucky dip'

You could guard against those reversals by having a 5 pip safety SL and be prepared to lose it a number of times.

You could research the BO time and use a closer one.

If there were a way of making this system exact then it would have been done long ago.

It is all a gamble but we improve the odds by using smaller ranges and times closer to when the BO might occur.
  • #57
  • Dec 2, 2010 5:39pm Dec 2, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting Phreddy
That is how it works. There is no gurantee!! Look further along the charts. Does the price break later?

It is all 'lucky dip'

You could guard against those reversals by having a 5 pip safety SL and be prepared to lose it a number of times.

You could research the BO time and use a closer one.

If there were a way of making this system exact then it would have been done long ago.

It is all a gamble but we improve the odds by using smaller ranges and times closer to when the BO might occur.

intraday. totally 50/50. superior MM & exit strategy is it. nothing more. dont let anyone ever tell you it is
  • #58
  • Dec 3, 2010 12:31pm Dec 3, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting ES Trader
I like breakout systems. It does not need too much of thinking and it is the most simple indicator one can find for trading forex.

This system trades all 3 sessions, Asian, European and American .

System involves trading breakout of...
why must use these hours?
why not during the hours the other?
  • #59
  • Dec 6, 2010 7:05am Dec 6, 2010 7:05am
Quoting ES Trader
This system trades all 3 sessions, Asian, European and American .

Asian session : 4:00-6:00
European Session: 11:00-13:00
American Sessions: 18:00-20:00
why must use these hours? why not during the hours the other?
  • #60
  • Last Post: Jun 26, 2012 12:51am Jun 26, 2012 12:51am
Hi EA tRADER i am very happy to see your simple break out Plz can you clear some thing my broker Time is GMT+3
AND i try to set my Time
AsiaBegin = "00:00"
AsiaEnd = "02:00"
EurBegin = "10:00"
EurEnd = "12:00"
USABegin = "15:00"
USAEnd = "17:00"
If any other GMT+3 USER kindly Guide me
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