AUD/USD

I've been thinking about a long position all day. You guys say to 9950... why stop there?

i target 1.03

Given the situation at Europe wouldn't this pair suffer loss instead? If so, would it be wiser to side with the techs or fundamentals?

Well, I don't know if 9950 will be the exact point of reversal or not, but looking at the MAs in Sto4H seems that a drop is coming:

3 MACDs at 4H, same story: we are going up thanks to the blue macd (high frequency) while green (mid frequency) and yellow (lowest frequency) keep going down. When the blue macd will turn down, you know...

AUD will faced strong downward pressure if China up interest rate again.

Another view by Grega Horvat, respected elliottician....

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/ellio...tml#post658877


http://www.ew-forecast.com/content/f...-usd91_333.gif

May be it's time to go down!

Price is hanging around the Murrey Math Line at [+1/8] Overshoot Level and the weekly chart at Extreme Overshoot [+2/8].

Stop Loss: Pivot D(R3) 1.0036

To reply to all three of these {because they were a reply to me saying that it may reach .9950 next week & then short}.

Basing that off of a couple things off the top of my head.

Basically 'Head & shoulders' pattern on the 1day charts to start with.

2cd, sales will be up, up, up starting next week in the u.s. but actual profit won't be way up, this I personally think will give a false presence of a good economy in the u.s. for a couple months.

This is based off a couple things, it is cheaper to import right now in the u.s. a little bit, so inventory is going to be up, people don't have money therefore can afford less, the retail is going to make a lower profit/cost ratio so the 'retail' world is going to see a little lower of a 'return-on-investment'.

So before the corp. quarterly reports come out, I think that u.s. data will be looking better.

I also speculate the feds are going to say 'we are not going to use all 600 billion of QE2', so that in theory will strengthen the u.s. dollar.

All of this is just a very summarized portion of why i think Aussie will temporarily go down,

I am going to go short, if watching the market then between .9950-1.0050 but If I am away then it will be an order at .9950, but hopefully I am home to watch instead of putting an order in, I will be putting the SL at 1.0180 and that is the gamble I am going to take, With the holiday season arriving, I think that sellers will out perform buyers on the AUD/USD.

I am brand new to forex, have experience basically trading, but I have been studying for a while so If I am dead wrong about any of my speculation I would like a reply with what is, in opinion, wrong.

& I have a feeling that EU is in A LOT more trouble then what they are telling everybody. & also you have to remember, A LOT of the investors of sub-prime mortgage packages from the u.s. banks were European investors. & it will trickle in the effects over coming years.

U.S. gov't is repaying the banks, but do you really honestly believe that u.s. banks are going to 100% reimburse investors ... especially international investors?

{Oh and not sure if this is true, but from what I have read, the U.S. gov't is still 100% insuring the banks with this money in investments....just with more over-site ... The way it's going, I might leave Texas & pledge allegiance to Australia!}

No offence meant, but this makes me feel like getting my surfboard out again...

I don't know about the fundamentals of your argument, nor am i pretending to know with certainty what this pair will do, anything is possible.
I assume you know the traditional way of trading a H&S (this isn't a H&S yet) is on the break of the baseline, way too late IMO.
Your idea of striking on the re trace to resistance has merit, and from a fib point of view it would have the main support area of 9400ish as target.
Personally i remain on the long side of view, and i can afford to be wrong, as i trade intra day opportunity's i can change my mind on the turn of a dime,and i would only trade the longer term if already in an intra day trade with limited or no risk.
Good luck.

OOOHH DAMN! too many words and too many posts, the village moron will be mad at me.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...oy-bank-crisis

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=9492
Just how I foresee things occurring this week.

interesting graphs
explain that lower comercial and long traders chart at the bottom to me.. what exactly are you measuring .. commercial vrs. large traders holdings?

Oh that's just the C.O.T index. yes, large traders holdings...you can get the charts here: http://timingcharts.com/index.php

oh ok c.o.t index never seen it charted like that thanks

Anyone seeing this head and shoulders pattern forming on daily...

Cheers
CanuckCT

It's a possibility but unlikely in my eyes. A/U should be rallying above 1.00 this week.