DislikedHere's my idea for the next week. Weekly IB off BRN-PPZ.
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1290250482Ignored
i would enter at the break of the ib. ftp at about 0.875, sl under the ib.
meine augen sind die sterne
james16 Chart Thread
- #80,481
- Nov 20, 2010 5:24am Nov 20, 2010 5:24am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: kiki soso largyalo | 2,243 Posts
meine augen sind die sterne
But seriously, yes, that is what I was thinking about. It is like if you look left objectively and honestly you MUST NOT take a trade, any trade. Period!
So many times when one still take a trade he actually does not see 1 or 10 PPZ's right before him... and says something like "oh this one is not that much important".
So I think there must be an objective way to make some old PPZ's absolete.
This is of course only my personal opinion, but I think for me this works, because removes a lot of doubt and guess work.
Of course a trade may still...
1.first you have to find a good PPZ on a higher timeframe (weekly, monthly), possibly around a BRN, if it has some other confluence like fibs, trend, etc. even better (all time lows/highs are also good
-just look at USDJPY-low or AUDUSD-high)2.look at a lower timeframe for PA (daily,h4, with a little experience also on h1)
3.and final stage-execute the trade, like rac would say KABOOM
Take for example your trade from past week, or the CHFJPY-->
- #80,483
- Nov 20, 2010 5:29am Nov 20, 2010 5:29am
- | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: MAKE IT HAPPEN | 2,220 Posts
where is you entry, tp and sl?
i would enter at the break of the ib. ftp at about 0.875, sl under the ib.
I would enter on break of IB yes. My FTA is at 0.8697
- #80,484
- Nov 20, 2010 5:37am Nov 20, 2010 5:37am
- | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: MAKE IT HAPPEN | 2,220 Posts
If i may add something... thats why the seniors are telling you to be picky and that the higher timeframe rules...
1.first you have to find a good PPZ on a higher timeframe (weekly, monthly), possibly around a BRN, if it has some other confluence like fibs, trend, etc. even better...
I try to make it as much objective as I can, of course I understand I cannot make it as system, a lot of discretion still apply... but I have categorized my PPZ in two major groups 1) Swing SR 2) Dynamic SR (it is also always FTA). As I see many times they are identical with the PPZ I used to draw... but I plot them really objectively based on the written rules I have in front of me.
And regarding higher TF, I only go there to see if there is an opposing signal against me or not. For example, I made an error in the beginning of the month when I was taking some weekly trade but on monthly it was against very strong BUOB that just formed... So I check higher TF in order "Not to fade higher TF setup" only....
If i may add something... thats why the seniors are telling you to be picky and that the higher timeframe rules...
1.first you have to find a good PPZ on a higher timeframe (weekly, monthly), possibly around a BRN, if it has some other confluence like fibs, trend, etc. even better...
you need to remember a good that location is everything...
- #80,486
- Nov 20, 2010 5:43am Nov 20, 2010 5:43am
Any market is difficult for new traders . .lol.
I don't think one is more difficult than the other. I haven't traded either of them, but it would be interesting to take a longer look . . .got a chart ?
Hello Ppfx! Thank you very much for your analysis. I just chosed to do this a little differently but more objectively for me. I just don't like the "be more picky" what is it? If we don't have one standard of what is A+++ and it is always vary for each trader, how can I know when I am picky enough? I don't want to negotiate and bribe myself... or sit on hands forever waiting for the A+++ which I am not really sure what is it
I try to make it as much objective as I can, of course I understand I cannot make it as system, a lot of discretion...
believe me i have such bad luck that i miss most of 'my' A+ trades and i still have the chance to get 1 or 2 a month, loll..
- #80,488
- Nov 20, 2010 5:50am Nov 20, 2010 5:50am
- | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: MAKE IT HAPPEN | 2,220 Posts
i see but thats why you look at more pairs
- #80,489
- Nov 20, 2010 5:53am Nov 20, 2010 5:53am
I'm in an airport lounge, with about 4 hours sleep and 5 glasses of scotch in, so this could be a little messy
What you are saying is correct, in a sense - there are fewer people operating on a monthly chart. And so something like a trendline, which people are using to make trading decisions will have fewer people 'trading' it. And, if you start looking at market segmentation and how the money focused on such a long timeframe is operating, you will find its even fewer than you think (ie, they arent trading trendline bounces).
But, and its a big but, that doesnt really matter when we are talking PPZ. It goes with what I said below, but basically they are caused by very different things, and we should try not to conflate the two or we might draw some conclusions based more on how we act, than how the market does.
We cant really conclude that the higher timeframes have the most money operating on them, or that the parties looking at the monthly have the largest capital flows behind them. The monthly bars show the aggregation of all the money below them, which is a pretty subtle difference but an important one I think.
Where the monthly charts do help us is by giving us a hint towards what certain segments of the primary market movers may be doing. Because they aggregate all the movements for a longer period, it helps smooth out the 'noise' and actions of more short term focused traders, and gives us a picture of the 'trend', for lack of a better term. Kind of like an MA, in a way.
For trendlines, yes.
For PPZs? Not really.
You are looking at them from a very specific point of view - how we (ie, price-taking small traders using this specific methodology) use them. And if everyone operated like us, your conclusions would be solid. But we are actually looking at the footprints of a number of different market movers, with very disparate aims, goals and methodologies.
Instead of an application, consider what they essentially are.
One is a trading tool, one is an area of supply and demand. Very, very different behaviour. And, once you get started down that path, think about what has happened when a trendline is broker, vs what happens when a PPZ is broken. That's where the key to the whole question lies
You need to consider who the 'big guys' are, stratify them by general goals, and then think about why each group move into or out of a curency.
It isnt because they are watching a chart.
-----------------
You have clearly done alot of thinking on this, and stepped through the process in a logical manner, and its good to see The more people think about these things, the less likely they are to walk into traps and the easier your decision process becomes.
The differences in our conclusions isnt because your logic is wrong, at all. It's more that we are starting with different...ugh, I cant believe I am about to use this word....paradigms. I feel unclean now.
I think that if you expand into looking at the different entities involved in the market and how (and, importantly, why) they each operate, it would really enhance your reasoning.
The higher TFs like the monthly will always be the one with the fewest TLs and PPZ. Less traders here, moving more money and making longer term decisions. But as you step through the lower TFs more and more relevant points add up since more traders with more different perspectives come into the game. And yet they are dependent on what's happening on higher TFs. The smaller TF reactions are often in conjunction with fibs, TLs etc. on higher TF. And all of them play the (V)BRN game.
But, and its a big but, that doesnt really matter when we are talking PPZ. It goes with what I said below, but basically they are caused by very different things, and we should try not to conflate the two or we might draw some conclusions based more on how we act, than how the market does.
So imagine the five biggest market movers drawing TLs, PPZ and stuff. Their trading decisions and their way to deal with the charts will affect everyone else and their decisions in the hierarchical order (i.e. less money, lower time frames). So in my opinion most of what we see on a daily or 4h chart happens due to the hierarchic interaction initiated by relatively few market movers.
Where the monthly charts do help us is by giving us a hint towards what certain segments of the primary market movers may be doing. Because they aggregate all the movements for a longer period, it helps smooth out the 'noise' and actions of more short term focused traders, and gives us a picture of the 'trend', for lack of a better term. Kind of like an MA, in a way.
PPZs are horizontal TL. I think their "behavior" is quite the same: TLs are often respected even though they have been broken long before. But over time their relevance diminishes as more and more traders lose sight of them and the more they are broken or displaced - especially on higher TFs which hand their characteristics down to the lower TFs.
For PPZs? Not really.
You are looking at them from a very specific point of view - how we (ie, price-taking small traders using this specific methodology) use them. And if everyone operated like us, your conclusions would be solid. But we are actually looking at the footprints of a number of different market movers, with very disparate aims, goals and methodologies.
Instead of an application, consider what they essentially are.
One is a trading tool, one is an area of supply and demand. Very, very different behaviour. And, once you get started down that path, think about what has happened when a trendline is broker, vs what happens when a PPZ is broken. That's where the key to the whole question lies
Even the big guys have two eyes, one brain and a certain memory capacity to watch and deal with these charts. So things won't just add up.
It isnt because they are watching a chart.
-----------------
You have clearly done alot of thinking on this, and stepped through the process in a logical manner, and its good to see
The more people think about these things, the less likely they are to walk into traps and the easier your decision process becomes. The differences in our conclusions isnt because your logic is wrong, at all. It's more that we are starting with different...ugh, I cant believe I am about to use this word....paradigms. I feel unclean now.
I think that if you expand into looking at the different entities involved in the market and how (and, importantly, why) they each operate, it would really enhance your reasoning.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #80,492
- Nov 20, 2010 6:01am Nov 20, 2010 6:01am
Any market is difficult for new traders . .lol.
I don't think one is more difficult than the other. I haven't traded either of them, but it would be interesting to take a longer look . . .got a chart ?
Also, when someone is asking whether the NYSE or the Dow is easier to trade than the S&P500, I would probably suggest sticking to the basics for now and going through all Jim, Mike and Jim's posts. Seriously.
For a couple of reasons, and strictly in my opinion, individual equities are a lot easier to trade than currencies. Indicies, on the other hand, arent*.
* thats kind of a half truth, since you can deconstruct an index and then look at its components and how they are going to react at certain levels and then use that as a guide to how the index should react, which gives you an extra tool you dont really have with fxm but like... dont do that. Even typing that gave me a headache.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #80,493
- Nov 20, 2010 6:04am Nov 20, 2010 6:04am
Hello Ppfx! Thank you very much for your analysis. I just chosed to do this a little differently but more objectively for me. I just don't like the "be more picky" what is it? If we don't have one standard of what is A+++ and it is always vary for each trader, how can I know when I am picky enough? I don't want to negotiate and bribe myself... or sit on hands forever waiting for the A+++ which I am not really sure what is it
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #80,495
- Nov 20, 2010 6:15am Nov 20, 2010 6:15am
- | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: MAKE IT HAPPEN | 2,220 Posts
I've read a bunch of your posts in here, looked at dozens of your charts and followed your reasoning, and I can pretty confidently say that I think you know the difference between a solid, realible trade and a dicey one
- #80,498
- Edited 8:09am Nov 20, 2010 7:43am | Edited 8:09am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
If i may add something... thats why the seniors are telling you to be picky and that the higher timeframe rules...
1.first you have to find a good PPZ on a higher timeframe (weekly, monthly), possibly around a BRN, if it has some other confluence like fibs, trend, etc. even better (all time lows/highs are also good
2.look at a lower timeframe for PA (daily,h4, with a little experience also on h1)
3.and final stage-execute...
Awesome post ppfx. . .
I'm sure you saw it too. . .the Daily close would have kept that 4 hour false break on the 10-12 in check and when Price finally broke through and closed below on following Fri, (Sun. bar . .not so much) and Mon on the Daily gave more confidence in that BEOB on the 4 hour.
Great charts . .
Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I'm in an airport lounge, with about 4 hours sleep and 5 glasses of scotch in, so this could be a little messy
The differences in our conclusions isnt because your logic is wrong, at all. It's more that we are starting with different...ugh, I cant believe I am about to use this word....paradigms. I feel unclean now.
I think that if you expand into looking at the different entities involved in the market and how (and, importantly, why) they each operate, it would really enhance your reasoning.
.Please clarify how we/I may gain the knowledge to expand our minds about the "different entities involved in the market" and their interactive methodologies?
Is there a book(s) you would recommend?
Is it news or combination thereof?
Is this information even attainable without working for the "big fish?"
What would be the best way to understand these dynamics and be able to apply this knowledge to trading?
Thanks,
Bill
- #80,500
- Edited 3:11pm Nov 20, 2010 8:08am | Edited 3:11pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
I've gotten some question concerning long term emas, like the 365, 200, 150 . . I use them as an added confluence, not alone by themselves.
Take the Chf/Jpy Daily.
See how the 365 ema (black) is lining up with the 85.00 BRN. . .nice
I know Mike would say, "What's the big deal Jim with that 365 ...it just the 85.00 BRN doing its thangy, bro . ." OK, that may not be a direct quote . . .lol, but I just like the additional confluence.
And Mike is right, if the 365 was not there and the chart was the same, would you act differently to the 85.00 BRN?. . probably not. Again I just like the added confluence . . and James16 would like the base trade opportunities.
Take the Chf/Jpy Daily.
See how the 365 ema (black) is lining up with the 85.00 BRN. . .nice
I know Mike would say, "What's the big deal Jim with that 365 ...it just the 85.00 BRN doing its thangy, bro . ." OK, that may not be a direct quote . . .lol, but I just like the additional confluence.
And Mike is right, if the 365 was not there and the chart was the same, would you act differently to the 85.00 BRN?. . probably not. Again I just like the added confluence . .
and James16 would like the base trade opportunities.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.