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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,321
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:45am Nov 19, 2010 8:45am
that's why I'm not quite comfortable to long usdchf.
I'm holding a usdcad long, however
  • #9,322
  • Nov 19, 2010 10:25am Nov 19, 2010 10:25am
Quoting ashes
that's why I'm not quite comfortable to long usdchf.
I'm holding a usdcad long, however

I did long it but for few pips only., day trading can be quite profitable but margin for error is not as with trend following.
I just have not seen not many good set ups with majors with our 3SMAs method in the past 4 weeks. I guess it is like in Bible. 7 fat and 7 thin years. I guess I will stay out until I see legitimate trend develop and set ups. Hopefully, E/U is getting into place. will see Sunday/ Monday. USD/Chf, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY too. I see them all getting into place. I think I will stick with NightMoves/ Hector's approach as it looks much more orderly. DanUk's method works but I am probably not cut for it. I have had really good results with NightMoves' method and not so good with DanUk. I think the point that when we enter with NightMoves method momentum would already swing into main trend direction and we enter with momentum, less pips risked and when trend is really in place it can really run.
  • #9,323
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:46pm Nov 19, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting shiko
I did long it but for few pips only., day trading can be quite profitable but margin for error is not as with trend following.
I just have not seen not many good set ups with majors with our 3SMAs method in the past 4 weeks. I guess it is like in Bible. 7 fat and 7 thin years. I guess I will stay out until I see legitimate trend develop and set ups. Hopefully, E/U is getting into place. will see Sunday/ Monday. USD/Chf, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY too. I see them all getting into place. I think I will stick with NightMoves/ Hector's approach as it looks...


Yes you are right with Hector and Nightmove method, there aren’t much move...I think one can add the main S/R method on 4hr Tf which I have tested and once hector's method setup is set, one can ride on it too.

1love
  • #9,324
  • Nov 19, 2010 3:07pm Nov 19, 2010 3:07pm
Quoting mayorowo
Yes you are right with Hector and Nightmove method, there aren’t much move...I think one can add the main S/R method on 4hr Tf which I have tested and once hector's method setup is set, one can ride on it too.

1love
You mean 4H S/R No Brainer method?
Yeah, NightMoves'/ Hector's method is solid when clear trend is in place.
I think some pairs start developing trend.
  • #9,325
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:38pm Nov 19, 2010 8:38pm
Quoting shiko
You mean 4H S/R No Brainer method?
Yeah, NightMoves'/ Hector's method is solid when clear trend is in place.
I think some pairs start developing trend.
Yeah i meant no Brainer method
  • #9,326
  • Nov 20, 2010 6:52am Nov 20, 2010 6:52am
Quoting mayorowo
Yeah i meant no Brainer method
yeah, I have been traded this method longer than anything. It practically turned me from losing to BE and slightly positive trader. But if you remember, Steve says that when market ranges for a long time, it becomes hard to determine which level might hold and which not. This is the situation now at least with pairs I always traded this method. also had I looked for these levels, I already have them on my posted charts actually. I just did not set my limit orders there as I usually do. i did not use any fancy set ups from BRV's method like spike base , bucket and so forth, but they are there obviously. Probability is lower however than with trending market.
  • #9,327
  • Nov 20, 2010 8:44am Nov 20, 2010 8:44am
I really have become quite fond of NightMoves'/ Hectors' approach.
The numbers just do not lie. I was almost 8% up for the period when there were opportunities with this method to lose almost everything while trying to trade DanUk's method. The reason was mostly that I let winners run but did not take them at all,m but had also losers. With DanUk method we are supposed to let them run, but if they do not? I believe that profits must be taken. and for my overall goals I find NightMoves/ Hector's method much more suitable than DanUk's. It is more structured and keeps us away form B grade trades when we are only looking for A grade trades. It is easy to see and it has higher probability of success. NightMoves's looks like a very patiernt and wise guy. I am almost 100% sure he has not been trading as of late patiently waiting for these 3SMAs to show him a way. I am also sure that if he shows his account it will look very impressive and positive over time he has been using this method.
  • #9,328
  • Nov 21, 2010 4:27am Nov 21, 2010 4:27am
Quoting shiko
yeah, I have been traded this method longer than anything. It practically turned me from losing to BE and slightly positive trader. But if you remember, Steve says that when market ranges for a long time, it becomes hard to determine which level might hold and which not. This is the situation now at least with pairs I always traded this method. also had I looked for these levels, I already have them on my posted charts actually. I just did not set my limit orders there as I usually do. i did not use any fancy set ups from BRV's method like spike...
I also have traded brv's method since a while. It works okay. The benefits are obviously the good R:R ratios. But kind of difficult to backtest his strategy.
  • #9,329
  • Nov 21, 2010 4:30am Nov 21, 2010 4:30am
Quoting shiko
I really have become quite fond of NightMoves'/ Hectors' approach.
The numbers just do not lie. I was almost 8% up for the period when there were opportunities with this method to lose almost everything while trying to trade DanUk's method. The reason was mostly that I let winners run but did not take them at all,m but had also losers. With DanUk method we are supposed to let them run, but if they do not? I believe that profits must be taken. and for my overall goals I find NightMoves/ Hector's method much more suitable than DanUk's. It is more...
yeah, it has a good positive expectancy. a very stable strategy.
  • #9,330
  • Nov 21, 2010 6:49am Nov 21, 2010 6:49am
Quoting Custos
I also have traded brv's method since a while. It works okay. The benefits are obviously the good R:R ratios. But kind of difficult to backtest his strategy.

as Steve put it, when you are trading this style you always has to be on your toes. He makes both contra and along the trend trades.
I can trade this strategy ok, but it is too stressful actually especially when price goes through your order like a freight train and you are say 20-30 pips under water with 40 pips stop loss.
  • #9,331
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:35am Nov 21, 2010 7:35am
Quoting shiko
as Steve put it, when you are trading this style you always has to be on your toes. He makes both contra and along the trend trades.
I can trade this strategy ok, but it is too stressful actually especially when price goes through your order like a freight train and you are say 20-30 pips under water with 40 pips stop loss.
yep, that's definitely a drawback. I have generally used it for trend trading. But well, through further testing I found out that waiting for pinbars and so on, the strat is more profitable.
  • #9,332
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:01am Nov 21, 2010 8:01am
Quoting Custos
yep, that's definitely a drawback. I have generally used it for trend trading. But well, through further testing I found out that waiting for pinbars and so on, the strat is more profitable.
it was very good with A/U when it was trending. Laying bricks remember? I was entering with limit orders and had very little DD on each trade or none.
But overall, I do still draw all these S/R lines as per BRV, but I am thinking of how to trade not just putting any limit order at this level but to have PA confirmation that levels indeed gonna hold and with as small stop loss as possible. It is for day trading. I do not think some 4H pin bar is necessary for this. 15 min to 1H chart price action is enough. If price is rejected at this level so, where do I enter. This is what I am thinking. Redswords11 is doing something along these lines btw. I am trying to figure out what this confirmation might look like. I need strategy to trade when we have none set ups with NightMoves/ Hector's method. when we have them it is much easier.
  • #9,333
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:10am Nov 21, 2010 10:10am
Quoting shiko
it was very good with A/U when it was trending. Laying bricks remember? I was entering with limit orders and had very little DD on each trade or none.
But overall, I do still draw all these S/R lines as per BRV, but I am thinking of how to trade not just putting any limit order at this level but to have PA confirmation that levels indeed gonna hold and with as small stop loss as possible. It is for day trading. I do not think some 4H pin bar is necessary for this. 15 min to 1H chart price action is enough. If price is rejected at this level so,...
Hi Everyone,

I hope you don't mind me jumping in here and giving my 2 cents.

I haven't been a contributor on this thread, nor have I even been on this forum for quite a while but I was browsing the other day and this thread really caucght my eye. Everything here is logical and is very similar to the way I trade. It also seems that there are a lot of knowledgeable people on this thread who want to help which again is really nice to see.

@Shiko - I read your post above and the previous ones leading up to this and it seems to me that you know what you are doing but you are in Danger of over trading. The thing with trend trading is that you do get times of little to no action. This is inherent with this particular style, but it is not necassarily a negative.

Of course you want to be in a trade, in the markets making money. But at some point you have to accept that not having a position is actually a position in itself. It is better to not be in a trade at all rather than trying to look for entries that don't exist. Trading with the trend gives one a great edge by itself, when a pair trend it doesn't just do it for a day or a week, it can trend for months on end which makes timing less important.

Trend trading off of the longer timer frames is an excellent approach and one that is really quite laid back. In some respects it rids itself of all the negative psychological aspects of trading, as you have time to look at your potential setups, define your risk management and profit targets and then go away and let the trade play out.

As Custos has said in numerous posts it is very much about having an approach with a positive expectancy and then having the conviction in the approach to simply let the edge play out. I don't think one can judge something based on a month of results or even 2-3 months worth of results. It really has to be a 6 month to annual tyoe thing, especially with trend trading.

But obviously to be able to give your system the time to show you its edge you have to have the confidence in it which only comes after either live experience OR lots of backtesting. Not just over the past few months but literally years worth of data. I would recommend even going upto a decades worth of data so you can encompass at least the majority of the new internet trading generation.

Anyway I think I went a little off on a tangent there so I will reign it back in. I guess all I was trying to say is that you seem like a smart person. The key now for you is to really understand and own your edge and then trade only that and be satisified during the slower periods knowing that when those big trends arrive as long as you take the set up and you ride it long enough you will make money and substantial amounts of it.

This post was only meant as encouragement, if it is taken in any other way I do appologize, it was not meant that way. I think you people are smart and are on the road to successm it is one of the most sensible threads I have seen in quite a while.
  • #9,334
  • Nov 21, 2010 11:58am Nov 21, 2010 11:58am
Quoting Micardo
Hi Everyone,

I hope you don't mind me jumping in here and giving my 2 cents.

I haven't been a contributor on this thread, nor have I even been on this forum for quite a while but I was browsing the other day and this thread really caucght my eye. Everything here is logical and is very similar to the way I trade. It also seems that there are a lot of knowledgeable people on this thread who want to help which again is really nice to see.

@Shiko - I read your post above and the previous ones leading up to this and it seems to me that you know what...
awesome post, I couldn't have said it better. Yeah, it really is essential to go back years in data. Only if you have faith in the strategy will you stick by it and not look for new strategies. And that "faith" you only can get by seeing it how your strat unfolds over several years.

cheers
  • #9,335
  • Nov 21, 2010 12:43pm Nov 21, 2010 12:43pm
Excellent post. I agree completely and this is the reason I am going to stick for longer term trading/ trend following with NightMoves/ Method as I understand it and it clearly has the edge. i was not able to back test it using EA as my coding skills are non existent, but it obviously has been tested over this period of time by others including NightMoves and it is very reasonable strategy relying on momentum.
I checked it visually over all trends that have happened since 2008 on at least 4H chart and it should worked fine with set ups at minimum 4H with 1H triggers for example.

In the middle when nothing with this method I will keep working on my day trading approach.
  • #9,336
  • Nov 21, 2010 12:59pm Nov 21, 2010 12:59pm
Hi Again,

Thanks Custos I think we are definitely on the same page here.

Shiko, I understand exactly what you are saying, but I really want to caution you against a few things.

1: Don't rely on other peoples results or backtested data. Only once you have tested it yourself can you have any real conviction in the strategy. Also you do not need an EA to test it, you can use metatrader and go forward a bar at a time or if you want to invest a little you can use a specialized testing software.

2: Even though learning and perfecting your day trading technique is good because it gives you more screen time, becareful not to give all of your hard earned profits back, simply by trying different systems. If you are going to trade two separate ways I would advise you to make sure you keep separate journals and trade logs for each approach. This way your results do not get distorted and you can work out what really works for you.

Indeed trend trading methods do work and have solid logic behind them, there are numerous hedge funds out there that no nothing else but trend follow. You should real a book by Michael Covel called Trend Following. It is a great read and even though it doesn't provide you with an exact system it talks about concepts and more importantly people that have made successful careers that span decades purely from trend following.

I hope this helps and if you have any questions please feel free to ask. I am now subscribed to this thread (it is the only one I have read in a long time that has real logic behind it) so I will keep popping in :-).
  • #9,337
  • Nov 21, 2010 1:33pm Nov 21, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting Micardo
Hi Again,

Thanks Custos I think we are definitely on the same page here.

Shiko, I understand exactly what you are saying, but I really want to caution you against a few things.

1: Don't rely on other peoples results or backtested data. Only once you have tested it yourself can you have any real conviction in the strategy. Also you do not need an EA to test it, you can use metatrader and go forward a bar at a time or if you want to invest a little you can use a specialized testing software.

2: Even though learning and perfecting your day trading...
hehe, yeah, I also have fallen into the trap of giving back my profits to intraday time-frames.

Yeah, backtesting a strategy by programming is a personal thing. I personally always like to see my "potential" equity curves and statistics. My programming skills are also very bad, but for most strategies you don't need to program a lot. (except S/R trading, that is impossible to program, at least for me). But it is just amazing for the psyche. Cause after seeing multiple rising equity curves with the same strategy, you just won't look back on other strategies and won't abandon it anymore.
  • #9,338
  • Nov 21, 2010 4:41pm Nov 21, 2010 4:41pm
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  • #9,339
  • Nov 21, 2010 4:59pm Nov 21, 2010 4:59pm
Shiko

i am in the same situation, i follow the hector/nm style but have tried to enter on pin bars, engulfing bars etc. instead of waiting for the bpc of the retracement line. You guys who use the pin bars etc. what is your confirmation to enter?

Andy
  • #9,340
  • Nov 21, 2010 5:21pm Nov 21, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting Andy_G
Shiko

i am in the same situation, i follow the hector/nm style but have tried to enter on pin bars, engulfing bars etc. instead of waiting for the bpc of the retracement line. You guys who use the pin bars etc. what is your confirmation to enter?

Andy

Hi Andy, that was DanUk method I tried to use. NightMOves/ Hector's method I trade as is and I am getting better and better at it. The problem was that set ups dried up and I started looking for another trend following method to stay busy and well, overtraded.
I will stay with this method for trade following and that's all. Meanwhile I will work on my day trading. I want to say that I actually did not give up anything by day trading. actually I am bringing account back after losing week using another trend following method. when this thread set ups will present themselves I will follow and no day trade.
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