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AUD/USD

  • #25,341
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:53am Nov 19, 2010 12:53am
Supporting the claim of entering when it looks the worst, entry on the spike breaking support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 15 min.JPG Size: 36 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade.JPG Size: 25 KB
Biggest joker
  • #25,342
  • Nov 19, 2010 1:21am Nov 19, 2010 1:21am
what could be the effect of this for aud?
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=266412
  • #25,343
  • Edited 5:58am Nov 19, 2010 5:34am | Edited 5:58am
Hmmm

¿Possible drop to 9780-9820 to build the right shoulder of a huge inverted H&S at 4H?? (which could take us then theorically to ~1.0080 -> neckline: 9913)

Reason: MACD 1H bearish while Stochastic 1H is overbought...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,344
  • Nov 19, 2010 6:31am Nov 19, 2010 6:31am
IMF’s Strauss Kahn: Europe has “serious growth problem”, productivity lags in Southern countries with competitiveness problems

 

  1. Sovereign debt crisis not over in Europe
  2. Medium-term fiscal consolidation crucial in Europe, job creation must be a priority
  3. Europe needs to further integrate labour markets
  4. Economic growth needs to be more balanceed, both globally and within Europe
  5. It’s simply not true that surpluses are good and deficits are bad
  6. Current account deficits in some European countries must shrink, domestic demand in Germany must rise
  7. Immigration to Europe would boost long-term growth, good solution for skills shortage
  8. China understands better that it may be in its’ own benefit to move in the right direction on imbalances
  9. Chinese currency issue is not the single problem

Strauss Kahn’s comments have caused EUR/USD to dip below 1.3700, presently at 1.3698.

  • #25,345
  • Nov 19, 2010 6:32am Nov 19, 2010 6:32am
US$ will always goes up if there is any problems around the world, (even alien invasions XD), US$ and Jap YEN are the only two safe haven in all currencies... And yes, sounds like the bailout has not confirmed, just the words from EU IMF and JC.... so yes, this weekend is gonna be a crazy week....

good trading mate~
Have a fun weekend
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #25,346
  • Nov 19, 2010 7:01am Nov 19, 2010 7:01am
Quoting bskwak1124
US$ will always goes up if there is any problems around the world, (even alien invasions XD), US$ and Jap YEN are the only two safe haven in all currencies... And yes, sounds like the bailout has not confirmed, just the words from EU IMF and JC.... so yes, this weekend is gonna be a crazy week....

good trading mate~
Have a fun weekend
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/10/10_1_1.gif
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #25,347
  • Nov 19, 2010 7:52am Nov 19, 2010 7:52am
Woke up to find my long order @ 9820 triggered overnight. Target just below parity @ 9980. Only a 1/2 lot postion...may well get to add another 1/2 near 9720. Even if the trend is changing (which I doubt), we still need to make a secondary top.... and I just do not believe the 99 area is it. I have, however, been wrong before! Good trades to all.

Regards,
  • #25,348
  • Nov 19, 2010 7:57am Nov 19, 2010 7:57am
Big seller of AUD calls today

In addition to the Chinese credit tightening, AUD is weighed down this morning by heavy selling of 3 month 0.9500 AUD calls. Could be a long taking profit or a really, really aggressive spec short.
  • #25,349
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:01am Nov 19, 2010 8:01am
Quoting Forexfsa
Big seller of AUD calls today

In addition to the Chinese credit tightening, AUD is weighed down this morning by heavy selling of 3 month 0.9500 AUD calls. Could be a long taking profit or a really, really aggressive spec short.
Wow, they must have some guts. That's not insurance on an existing long position...that's a bet that it's going lower. It better move in their favor. They are already deep in the red.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #25,350
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:02am Nov 19, 2010 8:02am
Quoting FX-Petra
Woke up to find my long order @ 9820 triggered overnight. Target just below parity @ 9980. Only a 1/2 lot postion...may well get to add another 1/2 near 9720. Even if the trend is changing (which I doubt), we still need to make a secondary top.... and I just do not believe the 99 area is it. I have, however, been wrong before! Good trades to all.

Regards,

Good Morning FX-Petra,

Good work on that 9820 entry. If you don't mind me asking, how do you arrive at your entry points, like this one for 9820? Was it a fib retracement or something else that helps you dial in the entry and exits? I am new at this and curious to understand how I should time and price my trades also.

Thanks,

Moe.

aka Newbie.
  • #25,351
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:02am Nov 19, 2010 8:02am
Quoting MarcVUM
Wow, they must have some guts. That's not insurance on an existing long position...that's a bet that it's going lower. It better move in their favor. They are already deep in the red.
Was this a naked sale?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #25,352
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:15am Nov 19, 2010 8:15am
Quoting Momomoney
Good Morning FX-Petra,

Good work on that 9820 entry. If you don't mind me asking, how do you arrive at your entry points, like this one for 9820? Was it a fib retracement or something else that helps you dial in the entry and exits? I am new at this and curious to understand how I should time and price my trades also.

Thanks,

Moe.

aka Newbie.
pull up and hourly chart and you will see that this was a support area on 11/15. Next big hourly support is approx. 100 pips down. I use fibs and pivots on daily and 4hr charts to look for entry areas, then Price Action on the hourly and 15 min. to fine tune. Hope that helps.

Regards,
  • #25,353
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:49am Nov 19, 2010 8:49am
I called the short a few days ago, and added to my trade on the retrace back up to 9900. I am betting bigtime that the aussie is going south in the near term.

Entry... short the aud/usd anywhere around 9800 - 9900 for a fall to around 9390 over the next 2 to 4 weeks.

I'm basing this trade primarily on the weekly bars the last fortnight... an obvious short signal.

Will I be wrong? Could be, but I doubt it very much.
Attached Image
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #25,354
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:54am Nov 19, 2010 8:54am
Quoting pt49
I called the short a few days ago, and added to my trade on the retrace back up to 9900. I am betting bigtime that the aussie is going south in the near term.

Entry... short the aud/usd anywhere around 9800 - 9900 for a fall to around 9390 over the next 2 to 4 weeks.

I'm basing this trade primarily on the weekly bars the last fortnight... an obvious short signal.

Will I be wrong? Could be, but I doubt it very much.
good luck shorting into all that.. I will just be moving to cash
  • #25,355
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:14am Nov 19, 2010 9:14am
Quoting pt49
I called the short a few days ago, and added to my trade on the retrace back up to 9900. I am betting bigtime that the aussie is going south in the near term.

Entry... short the aud/usd anywhere around 9800 - 9900 for a fall to around 9390 over the next 2 to 4 weeks.

I'm basing this trade primarily on the weekly bars the last fortnight... an obvious short signal.

Will I be wrong? Could be, but I doubt it very much.
Looking at the volume, there was some good buying bouncing off the low 9700's, I would suggest there is a further move up before your forecast down move, at least a period of consolidation. The price action in the last two weeks does suggest a down move (2 bar - double top lower close) but I still dont think this will be anywhere near 9400 in the next month. It still seems bullish to me.
  • #25,356
  • Nov 19, 2010 11:31am Nov 19, 2010 11:31am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Hmmm

¿Possible drop to 9780-9820 to build the right shoulder of a huge inverted H&S at 4H?? (which could take us then theorically to ~1.0080 -> neckline: 9913)

Reason: MACD 1H bearish while Stochastic 1H is overbought...
Perfect!
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,357
  • Nov 19, 2010 1:14pm Nov 19, 2010 1:14pm
Thinking AUD/USD will go to .9950 next week & then going short, in Other words, if I am not around, i have a short order for .9950.

also, anyone know how long it takes to get rid of this 'junior' membership so I can post new threads?
  • #25,358
  • Nov 19, 2010 2:04pm Nov 19, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting Forexfsa
IMF’s Strauss Kahn: Europe has “serious growth problem”, productivity lags in Southern countries with competitiveness problems


[list][*]Sovereign debt crisis not over in Europe[*]Medium-term fiscal consolidation crucial in Europe, job creation must be a priority[*]Europe needs to further integrate labour markets[*]Economic growth needs to be more balanceed, both globally and within Europe[*]It’s simply not true that surpluses are good and deficits are bad[*]Current account deficits in some European countries must...
GROWTH,PRODUCTIVITY, COMPETITIVENESS, it seems that is all that matters in this new world, we should all be walking around like well behaving little drones doing our bit for the economies sake, to maintain the all important growth....i wonder who really benefits from "growth"?
Here i am thinking all these years that we're here to LIVE and ENJOY, or at least maintain a good balance between work and pleasure.
I must have got it wrong somewhere.
Biggest joker
  • #25,359
  • Nov 19, 2010 2:27pm Nov 19, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting mikej2010
Thinking AUD/USD will go to .9950 next week & then going short, in Other words, if I am not around, i have a short order for .9950.

also, anyone know how long it takes to get rid of this 'junior' membership so I can post new threads?
I think that it is a particular number of posts, but I really do not remember since it was a very long time ago. I think it is 50 or 100 posts.
  • #25,360
  • Nov 19, 2010 3:03pm Nov 19, 2010 3:03pm
Quoting mikej2010
Thinking AUD/USD will go to .9950 next week & then going short, in Other words, if I am not around, i have a short order for .9950.
Agreed.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
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