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AUD/USD

  • #25,301
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:01am Nov 18, 2010 7:01am
i'm going long, TP 1.03
  • #25,302
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:05am Nov 18, 2010 7:05am
I still think a retest of 9388 will happen b4 the next big push higher.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #25,303
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:13am Nov 18, 2010 7:13am
Quoting denewbie
Looking pretty bullish today. Will it break the 0.99 resistance?
IMHO it will. If it does, opens more upside next week.

9954 is 50% retrace of recent fall,

seasonals on side

just worried about any action done by China over the weekend. They like to make annoucements FRI after MKT close
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #25,304
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:21am Nov 18, 2010 7:21am
The moment before the employment news breaks out is always so tense...
  • #25,305
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:31am Nov 18, 2010 7:31am
Quoting denewbie
The moment before the employment news breaks out is always so tense...
439K... Will it be good enough to help push it down?
  • #25,306
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:47am Nov 18, 2010 7:47am
Quoting pt49
I still think a retest of 9388 will happen b4 the next big push higher.
Normally, I would agree (with at least 9650 area). This, however, is not really a normal situation. Even thought expectaions have come down for another intrest rate hike this year, the rate differential is very high on this pair in relative terms. While we can expect brief periods of risk aversion due to various world events, the financial world's need for yeild makes it pretty hard to see and extended round of selling for this pair.

Regards,
  • #25,307
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:54am Nov 18, 2010 7:54am
Quoting FX-Petra
Normally, I would agree (with at least 9650 area). This, however, is not really a normal situation. Even thought expectaions have come down for another intrest rate hike this year, the rate differential is very high on this pair in relative terms. While we can expect brief periods of risk aversion due to various world events, the financial world's need for yeild makes it pretty hard to see and extended round of selling for this pair.

Regards,
exactly.. awesome.. with gov buying up bonds and rates dropping and minimum buy of 100,000 for each brick of foreign bonds where are we gonna get yield we must accept risk.. with equity risk being seen as less risky than gov bonds which we can see by credit default swaps.. people are going to be more interested in buying equities and buying yield and even other currencies to yield a return or even just prevent capital errosion.

the best usa can hope for those at this point is stagflation with the situation we are in tho look for usa to become new japan for carry purposes.. as japan learned you cant tax and leverage and spend your way out of debt...which is what usa is planning or already is doing..
  • #25,308
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:57am Nov 18, 2010 7:57am
Quoting domino
exactly.. awesome.. with gov buying up bonds and rates dropping and minimum buy of 100,000 for each brick of foreign bonds where are we gonna get yield we must accept risk.. with equity risk being seen as less risky than gov bonds which we can see by credit default swaps.. people are going to be more interested in buying equities and buying yield and even other currencies to yield a return or even just prevent capital errosion.
Erm... that's a little deep for me... could you explain what it sums up to?
  • #25,309
  • Nov 18, 2010 8:00am Nov 18, 2010 8:00am
I agree with the reasons behind the A/U strength mentioned above but you also have to keep what the "big" investors are doing in the back of your head while trying to navigate the market.
Attached Image
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #25,310
  • Nov 18, 2010 8:18am Nov 18, 2010 8:18am
Quoting denewbie
Erm... that's a little deep for me... could you explain what it sums up to?
what it means is that if you look at a chart of interest rate cycles from about 50's or 60's to now.. you can see the interest rates cycling down to 0%.. what has happened is that the usa has used up its ability to create artificial inflation to create risk app in the market place.. so now they are flooding the market with cash and buying bonds.. what this does is devalues the dollar to create market places for united states good to increase production/meet production and create jobs/ and create risk buying in the market place by selling down the risk free rate or at least is suppose to.. credit default tickets show investor thought behind probability of defaulting .. corporate bonds show less defaulting risk by the market right now than soveriegn debt.. which is bad.. if something has a higher risk generally you should be paid for the risk.. and this divergence in risk is caused by the gov.. and the debt vrs growth in the united states.. it is costing more debt wise in the usa to drive growth and so we are expanding growth slower than we are expanding debt.. which is raising our debt vrs gdp levels which is not good because as of right now there is questions to if we are even able to meet our interest rate obligations.. this is showing that we have reached a peak were artifical inflationary enviroments are no longer going to be able to be created without significant reactions occuring.. us goverment is at the point where we must contract as a nation/restructure debt/pay it down/and raise rates create legit grow cycles again.. but no president wants to be the one to accept this burden and be burried by the american people.

so welcome to the next japan.. extremely high debt vrs gdp.. huge soveriegn issues.. flooding the market with cash to drive down currency and nothing happening.. stagflation..doing just enough to keep the economy from doing.. anything
  • #25,311
  • Nov 18, 2010 8:23am Nov 18, 2010 8:23am
Quoting domino
what it means is that if you look at a chart of interest rate cycles from about 50's or 60's to now.. you can see the interest rates cycling down to 0%.. what has happened is that the usa has used up its ability to create artificial inflation to create risk app in the market place.. so now they are flooding the market with cash and buying bonds.. what this does is devalues the dollar to create market places for united states good to increase production/meet production and create jobs/ and create risk buying in the market place by selling down the...
Thanks for the explanation. I'm a tad clearer now.
  • #25,312
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:04am Nov 18, 2010 9:04am
omg... the philly index is rediculous... 22.5... what kind of effect could that bring???
  • #25,313
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:15am Nov 18, 2010 9:15am
Quoting denewbie
Posted Oct 28, 2010
Usually the min retrace up is 38-50%, no reason to even think about a short yet. Mike Haran
Forum: Interactive Trading Thread: AUD/USD

I'm lookin at the 1 hour and 4hours

Are you still long on AUDUSD?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #25,314
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:17am Nov 18, 2010 9:17am
they are coming (short visit)
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The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #25,315
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:19am Nov 18, 2010 9:19am
Quoting mima
Are you still long on AUDUSD?
Nope I was never. I was thinkin now might be a downward correction of the gains of the past two days. I m just borrowing the idea or a 38 - 50% retract for which ever direction the trend moves
  • #25,316
  • Nov 18, 2010 10:23am Nov 18, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Alihuzaifa
short on aud/usd
watch ur gold as well...........
  • #25,317
  • Nov 18, 2010 10:36am Nov 18, 2010 10:36am
technically we have here the first lower high since the downmove from off the top. might be an opportunity to aim for break of lower tl and downmove
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  • #25,318
  • Nov 18, 2010 10:39am Nov 18, 2010 10:39am
Quoting ashes
technically we have here the first lower high since the downmove from off the top. might be an opportunity to aim for break of lower tl and downmove
Is that the 4hr time frame?
  • #25,319
  • Nov 18, 2010 10:47am Nov 18, 2010 10:47am
Quoting denewbie
Is that the 4hr time frame?
yes,4h
  • #25,320
  • Nov 18, 2010 11:41am Nov 18, 2010 11:41am
Sell @ 9900. Buy back @ 9830.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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