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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,641
  • Nov 17, 2010 8:35am Nov 17, 2010 8:35am
Quoting shahab8b
Cable
For now we are struggling with the lows from Dec 09, Jan 10 (bodies not wicks) but no buy divergence showing on D chart yet that I see.

I'll watch your buy target price with interest (as usual).
  • #4,642
  • Nov 17, 2010 8:39am Nov 17, 2010 8:39am
Quoting Vantage
For now we are struggling with the lows from Dec 09, Jan 10 (bodies not wicks) but no divergence showing on D chart yet that I see.

I'll watch your target price with interest (as usual).
Hi, It's not a good time to speculate, cant see any clear direction on cable now, the pair can be sold as easy as it can be bought.
  • #4,643
  • Nov 17, 2010 8:42am Nov 17, 2010 8:42am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi, It's not a good time to speculate, cant see any clear direction on cable now, the pair can be sold as easy as it can be bought.
And 5900 is 62% fib from 22 Oct - 4 Nov range.
  • #4,644
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:06am Nov 17, 2010 9:06am
Quoting shahab8b
Kiwi
Kiwi as expected
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  • #4,645
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:10am Nov 17, 2010 9:10am
Aussie long trade
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  • #4,646
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:25am Nov 17, 2010 11:25am
E/U : still is a sell
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  • #4,647
  • Nov 17, 2010 1:04pm Nov 17, 2010 1:04pm
Swissy: scalping short
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  • #4,648
  • Nov 17, 2010 1:14pm Nov 17, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there,

I wrote "long gold for now" and I did too but I stopped out at b/e during fomc.I have not switch to short yet but at this level gold is a sell, reason is the classic div and extended move. UTL is around 1425.I will give gold a short during next week.
Gold.
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  • #4,649
  • Nov 17, 2010 8:28pm Nov 17, 2010 8:28pm
Our latest trade : u/cad short
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  • #4,650
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:14pm Nov 17, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
E/U : still is a sell

Hi Shahab,
Some beautiful calls as ever of late Let me ask you though I see you use RSI most of the time for divergence etc, and I am also an advocate of RSI, and MACD as oscillators, but what are the pro's/con's of RSI/MACD in your opinion?

Be lucky, cheers.
  • #4,651
  • Nov 18, 2010 4:09am Nov 18, 2010 4:09am
  •  aghast
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts
I took what I've posted earlier. Let's see whether it will be a profitable trade.
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Fortune always favors the brave.
  • #4,652
  • Nov 18, 2010 5:33am Nov 18, 2010 5:33am
Quoting shahab8b
Swissy: scalping short
Swissy ...
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  • #4,653
  • Nov 18, 2010 6:14am Nov 18, 2010 6:14am
Quoting tpaulbeaumon
Hi Shahab,
Some beautiful calls as ever of late Let me ask you though I see you use RSI most of the time for divergence etc, and I am also an advocate of RSI, and MACD as oscillators, but what are the pro's/con's of RSI/MACD in your opinion?

Be lucky, cheers.
They are good for locating div, I prefer RSI as it shows you support/resistance level too.After a while you can read PA and RSI moves like a book.
  • #4,654
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:53am Nov 18, 2010 9:53am
Quoting shahab8b
They are good for locating div, I prefer RSI as it shows you support/resistance level too.After a while you can read PA and RSI moves like a book.
Fair enough.
  • #4,655
  • Nov 18, 2010 11:52am Nov 18, 2010 11:52am
Swissy, trading both sides
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  • #4,656
  • Nov 18, 2010 12:05pm Nov 18, 2010 12:05pm
DAX; it could be an exhaustion gap, but if you are shorting be careful and play small size, DAX is not an easy instrument to trade
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  • #4,657
  • Nov 18, 2010 12:12pm Nov 18, 2010 12:12pm
http://i52.tinypic.com/142wl4x.png
  • #4,658
  • Nov 19, 2010 3:16pm Nov 19, 2010 3:16pm
E/U, weekly chart
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  • #4,659
  • Nov 20, 2010 2:24am Nov 20, 2010 2:24am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U, weekly chart
yes we sure had a nice bounce of Old Support in the beginning of this week. We've had a bullish move ever since, even though the Ireland bailout hit the news. We have negative economical news from both the USD and THE E.U. So which one is worse?
US - QE2 has been in forecast for quite some time and the Ireland bailout is Newer but which acted in a swift move. Also German factory orders were down almost 5% and US NFP numbers were up in Nov, causing the quick selloff (also Eurusd was at a crucial resistance point around 4250.).

So whats next? Range bound probably without breaking above 4200 or seeing new lows until we get the deficit # in Dec from Ireland. THe US and Ireland realestate bubbles are putting HUGE burdens on the Banks and its not looking so good for either Country. Investors are still aware of this and uncertainty is still present. Billions have been moving away from the EUR and USD while being placed in AUD and CAD. Commodities are still looking bullish no matter how ugly the rest of the world looks.

While trading, I put this info on the side and let the price action and economical news releases tell me where the market is heading.
  • #4,660
  • Nov 20, 2010 2:27am Nov 20, 2010 2:27am
Quoting Low
http://i52.tinypic.com/142wl4x.png
I really love how everyone adopted the SUpply Demand Theory. I think everyone needs to join RED for a toast. I'm glad members are finally putting the indicators to the side and are starting to focus on what truly matters. Price Action!
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