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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #80,261
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:19am Nov 17, 2010 9:19am
Quoting forexben
Nice looking pinbar. Lot of traffic to the left thought. Looks like a very good bet to reach your FTA. How do you plan to manage the trade?
Hey Ben,
yep, itīs just too hard to manage the way these things should be managed.. Simply said, thereīs not enough space..

This may be a bit bad decision but iīm going to try it just by trading straight to the FTA and hope for the break. Then simply trailing the stop behind the bar highs.. I cut the loss if the price clearly breaks those bar highs.

If it fails a lesson is learned, if it breaks i have luck! (Demo account!)
  • #80,262
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:25am Nov 17, 2010 9:25am
Quoting jarroo
I liked this one on Quantitative Easing . . .lol. . .Joel should like it too. lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k
lol my brother sent me that yesterday too funny
  • #80,263
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:34am Nov 17, 2010 9:34am
Quoting Carnegie
Hmm that's reasonable Mike! Didn't notice the wedge... Thanks for pointing that one out.

The thing is here that you told me the bars doesn't matter so I started to look for confluence rather. (In my feed this is a BEOB.. I use OANDA).

If you look at the GBPJPY chart I'd say there is confluence here.
I have fibonacci confluence (both high swings) and a PPZ sitting right on top of the high of that BEOB.
Would you say I have drawn these wrong?

Thanks mikey!
Hey C

I said the bars don't matter? The bars definitely matter. Everything matters as a whole. All the pieces together.

As for gbp/jpy it isn't that I think you are wrong, but if you just step back and view the market conditions of gbp/jpy and everything as a whole we are super choppy for the most part. These markets eat people up usually and when there is just a so-so bar setup in a choppy pair as gbp/jpy has been for a very long time now, I don't want to get stuck in that environment. If the markets were moving very nice and xxx/jpy pairs all were signifying similar things, lots of space etc then a so-so bar setup carries more weight.

And this is a general statement but if at 19 years old you can get this, you are going to have such a future ahead of you

Those of you that are continuing to find yourself down month after month, If I could just plead with you to wait for the ones that jump out at you and build off that foundation then I have done my personal job. Irregardless of what this one does for example. Does it really scream trade me(especially to the struggling trader). In my eyes in doesn't(note if you disagree I am not saying you are wrong, it is more about trying to get across the previous point).

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #80,264
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:24am Nov 17, 2010 10:24am
Quoting Greenhaze
I've got a system which is good for me becouse of my working hours. I do not have a time to manage a trade on daily tf when it hits FTA so i assumed i wont be doing anything before the next bar close. Being picky and taking good setups a lot of the time result in getting breakeven just becouse of moving the stop to early but afterall price often moves forward in the desired direction. I know when i take a good setup on lower tf its easier for me to let it run just becouse of seeing the current momentum and being in the same mindframe opposite to...
The idea of adjusting MM rationally between trades is probably the factor that contributes the most to over trading.

I am not picking at you Green, just using it to get a kick off at the mini rant.

If I am treating it as a business - that is I am not looking at it like a get rich quick scheme I am probably going to sit on my hands with a well thought out and tested set of criteria for entries and exits and categorize opportunities as trade setups that I will be taking and trade setups I won't be taking.

The logic of the third "well, kinda tradable" category where you go for a trade with reduced risk because it lacks "A-plusness" is beyond me to be honest. Aren't we supposed to be taking only the very good trades? Wasn't this whole thing aimed at mastering a lucrative investment opportunity with little risk involved? Certainly not if risk aversion is not your target but making that 20% a month is.

Point is consistency comes before making money in this business. 5% consistent monthly returns is over and above inconsistent returns even if you can sneak in here and there with those big months in between. For the inexperienced trader any bar that closes near the open and has a long wick at one end is a pin bar. Now we know it is a pin bar but then it has to go through the location and spatial tests in addition to the shape test to qualify as tradable. This newbie also knows this, but this mindset of not dumping trades that lack proficiency proves to be detrimental for him. Why? Well he takes the trade and looses! Maybe not the normal 2% but he is still loosing! A trade lost is a trade lost - and it is just that - a loss, which came about because a trade that shouldn't have been taken was taken. Looking at it as only 1% instead of the regular 2%, hence acceptable is like trying to catch a falling knife. It hurts!

Picking your trades carefully and placing the priority of slow and steady growth well before making good money is extremely important. Of course its easier said than done, which is why this business - like any other - isn't meant for all.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #80,265
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:57am Nov 17, 2010 10:57am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey C

I said the bars don't matter? The bars definitely matter. Everything matters as a whole. All the pieces together.
Yep that's my bad, I know already you would never say that. What I on the other hand meant to say was that you told me that I should think more about the locations rather than the bar.

My bad there!!

Quote
As for gbp/jpy it isn't that I think you are wrong, but if you just step back and view the market conditions of gbp/jpy and everything as a whole we are super choppy for the most part. These markets eat people up usually and when there is just a so-so bar setup in a choppy pair as gbp/jpy has been for a very long time now, I don't want to get stuck in that environment. If the markets were moving very nice and xxx/jpy pairs all were signifying similar things, lots of space etc then a so-so bar setup carries more weight.

You're right but I can't make it fit into my brain, just don't know why. The same thing was with the two trades the other day.

Mike, I really really REALLY don't know what I am doing wrong. I can't find a GOOD trade. Hell I can't even find a DECENT ONE.

First of all I've stopped looking for bars, now I look for bar and LOCATION.
Still, everyone in this thread has found several charts to deal with and I haven't found ONE!
I don't know what I am doing wrong and what I should be looking at!!?

This last chart, GBP/JPY, was in MY VIEW of the market, not choppy.
You may ask, WHY did you look at the market in that kind of way?

Well, I have been taught that market (when it consolidates) it moves in a boxy-fashion (box/range) but these last movements on GBP/JPY were really 'legs' movement. (Look at attached chart).

See this is the way I see it.
Yellow boxes are obvious consolidations/choppy markets.

Red lines are LEGS.. As 1-2-3 movements (ABC,ZigZag whatever you call it).
Therefore, the setup IN MY MIND was a good setup.

I really, really, REALLY want to be the one that just waits for the A+ setups, but I don't know where to start. I'M WRONG ALL THE TIME.


Quote
And this is a general statement but if at 19 years old you can get this, you are going to have such a future ahead of you

Those of you that are continuing to find yourself down month after month, If I could just plead with you to wait for the ones that jump out at you and build off that foundation then I have done my personal job. Irregardless of what this one does for example. Does it really scream trade me(especially to the struggling trader). In my eyes in doesn't(note if you disagree I am not saying you are wrong, it is more about trying to...

Agree 100%, but look at what I wrote just above this.
In my eyes, THESE trades (CAD/JPY + GBP/JPY) really jumped out at me, I really don't know what was wrong here (I know you say that it wasn't wrong but in my views, if I can't take the trade then the analysis IS WRONG).

See what I am saying?

Sorry for the grumpyness, but I'm really trying, and ain't getting nowhere.

Thanks guys, keep up the good work!
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  • #80,266
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:08am Nov 17, 2010 11:08am
Quoting Carnegie
Yep that's my bad, I know already you would never say that. What I on the other hand meant to say was that you told me that I should think more about the locations rather than the bar.

My bad there!!



You're right but I can't make it fit into my brain, just don't know why. The same thing was with the two trades the other day.

Mike, I really really REALLY don't know what I am doing wrong. I can't find a GOOD trade. Hell I can't even find a DECENT ONE.

First of all I've stopped looking for bars, now I look for bar and LOCATION.
Still, everyone...
You aren't really wrong C, you have only been hanging here a short time. You also have to realize this is a building thing. We have people it took years to get it, some6 months. It varies. To expect to jump in after a few weeks and be spotting A+ setups left and right is too quick. There might not even be any. Passing is just as important as anything(read that over and over).

Your analysis is FINE, if it is YOUR analysis. Price action s/r can be applied to a lot of different techniques. Some people hate their foundation and start from scratch and follow us. Others take what is here a few pieces add it to what they already know.

I agree about your boxing, but we are also stuck in one larger box as well(see below and how ranged up we really are) which is why I said overall things are pretty choppy. The markets as a large majority have this feel right now. So one small setup that IMO the bar setup was poor on most feeds that closed at a good time(around 5pm est) just isn't going to cut it for me to put my hard earned money. Again this is for how I trade, and don't expect others to trade exactly like me, never would.

It takes time my friend, and the best thing is to not feel that rush, or that you are messing everything up and just see where your journey takes you. Go with your analysis, make mistakes, see what works. It is a lot of trial and error and you will look back in a year from now and say, wow. I have seen it hundreds of times if not thousands of people in the exact same place/feeling.

Go back and read all of James posts/charts over and over. It is the BEST place to start to see the difference b/w good setups and great setups. And good locations and GREAT locations. Of course ask questions along the way, but this should be the number 1 priority on your list. James has showed so many of us so much.

Here are just a few too get you started
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=46138
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rt#post2913840
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rt#post2913665
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rt#post2891676
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rt#post2752349
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rt#post2647834
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  • #80,267
  • Nov 17, 2010 1:39pm Nov 17, 2010 1:39pm
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  • #80,268
  • Nov 17, 2010 2:25pm Nov 17, 2010 2:25pm
From my very humble experience and from what I've read I would guess EG is about to explode. @BRN, @61.8%, @TL, @150EMA, @PPZ. What do you think?
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Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #80,269
  • Nov 17, 2010 2:34pm Nov 17, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting HanSolo
From my very humble experience and from what I've read I would guess EG is about to explode. @BRN, @61.8%, @TL, @150EMA, @PPZ. What do you think?
Has it strongly closed above the PPZ?
Anything can happen.
  • #80,270
  • Nov 17, 2010 2:38pm Nov 17, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting ddinnov
Has it strongly closed above the PPZ?
No. To me it looks like it's loading up and may burst to the downside. Do you think I'm missing something?
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #80,271
  • Nov 17, 2010 2:42pm Nov 17, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting HanSolo
From my very humble experience and from what I've read I would guess EG is about to explode. @BRN, @61.8%, @TL, @150EMA, @PPZ. What do you think?
Very good Han this is the type of puzzle piecing we want to put together.

A break should see 8400 trouble area
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  • #80,272
  • Nov 17, 2010 3:14pm Nov 17, 2010 3:14pm
Hi, As I am learning these awesome concepts I wanted to ask the senior traders in this group if there is a mechanism to narrow down PPZ zones. In other words I frequently find the S/R flip zones to be pretty wide and wonder how you position your pivot line. I generally don't trade daily charts as I don't swing trade, and a more accurate PPZ zone would be great.
Thanks,
"As Kids we believe Anything is Possible; the Trick is to never forget it!"
  • #80,273
  • Nov 17, 2010 3:15pm Nov 17, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting mbqb11
Very good Han this is the type of puzzle piecing we want to put together.

A break should see 8400 trouble area
Great to hear that we agree, Mike. Today seems to be Inside Bar Day. Lots of them on many different pairs. But this and the one on EU look the most promising to me. I would not even think about trading them since I don't know exactly how to do it yet. If there weren't these consecutive matching lows. They make it worth a demo trade.

The last two weeks have been amazing for me in regard to my understanding and learning curve. I can't thank you guys enough for your dedication and your help.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #80,274
  • Nov 17, 2010 3:25pm Nov 17, 2010 3:25pm
Quoting teemo
Hi, As I am learning these awesome concepts I wanted to ask the senior traders in this group if there is a mechanism to narrow down PPZ zones. In other words I frequently find the S/R flip zones to be pretty wide and wonder how you position your pivot line. I generally don't trade daily charts as I don't swing trade, and a more accurate PPZ zone would be great.
Thanks,
Hey Teemo

WHat I always do is find local round numbers but still never forget that they are zones. THe more accurate line can usually be found around a round number area but then we just remember that it is rarely a perfect line that is hit cause that isn't how the markets work as a whole

Best
Mike
  • #80,275
  • Nov 17, 2010 4:02pm Nov 17, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting xmzhang
Hey C, I really don't use fibs that much, about your entry, I prefer to enter on a pullback just like I showed you in my previous post but that's just me. I like to see price reaction when it gets to RNB @ 13200, if it gets there. I've already taken 45 pips off the table when price hit the 150-EMA. That's the difference between trading the pullback or waiting for the BEOB finally to break
Well, looks like the Guppy isn't going anywere at the moment, Guppy wasn't able to get to the low of the daily BEOB. I've taken somewhat more profit off the table, total profit uptill now 96 pips. Let the remaining position open for the asian session, maybe we see a break there, but first I'am going to get some

May the force be with you.
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Pipcrawler
  • #80,276
  • Nov 17, 2010 5:30pm Nov 17, 2010 5:30pm
hey guys
just wanted to say thanks to james and co for this excellent thread safe to say i d have given up or gone mad by now without it so thanks also I see few people struggling with seeing sup/res everywhere I had same problem until I found heikin ashi chart I use it along with candlestick chart it helps me see the more significant sup/res areas
  • #80,277
  • Nov 17, 2010 5:39pm Nov 17, 2010 5:39pm
Where is our man Dan
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  • #80,278
  • Edited 6:13pm Nov 17, 2010 6:01pm | Edited 6:13pm
Quoting Carnegie
Yep that's my bad, I know already you would never say that. What I on the other hand meant to say was that you told me that I should think more about the locations rather than the bar.


Sorry for the grumpyness, but I'm really trying, and ain't getting nowhere.

Thanks guys, keep up the good work!
C, I have only been trading for 7-8 years and many here have probably been at it 4-5 times that period however I can tell you from my experience the GBPJPY is a very difficult pair to trade, in fact many consider it the hardest. Wide ranges, wild moves, if you're working on refining your technique some of the majors rather than hybrids like the GJ might make it easier and a less expensive exercise.

EURGBP is a good one, has a solid pip value and moves with a little more rhyme to its reason, GBPUSD is another however USD pairs have been ugly recently with all the Fed meddling. Hell, with the whopping monthly BEOB forming on the EURUSD, that may be the only pair any of us need to trade for the next 3-6 months.

Keep at it though, there's no substitute for hard work (screen time) in trading.

Cheers.
  • #80,279
  • Nov 17, 2010 6:19pm Nov 17, 2010 6:19pm
Quoting 4xAddict

Keep at it though, there's no substitute for hard work (screen time) in trading.

Cheers.
ain't that the truth :nerd:
  • #80,280
  • Nov 17, 2010 6:48pm Nov 17, 2010 6:48pm
Quoting geniusztc
thank you pinba ,and all other members in James thread. i just come back from classroom .and i saw your replys. really thank you .however ,i am a little disappointed . you know , i ever thought i can earn much money with my only 200 dollar. lol. actually , i know why i trade the lower TF . i just have no patience .i know it .i always fear that i miss some good chances(i think most newbies have this problem). i know it but i can not control myself . but ,i want to say i traded not too bad in the low TF. as you said...

Yes, IMHO most people have gone through that stage when we first find forex.

Everyone thinks, we can become millionaires with a small account in a couple of weeks. LoL

Then we find out it is not true, and learn that this is a very serious business and if we really want to be in this business and make something out of it, we need to put in as much work as a student who is studying to become a doctor, a lawyer or any other highly qualified profession.

That is probably the point that most people stop.

The first step to learning is opening a demo account.

As James16 says, "If you can't be profitable on a demo account, there is no way you are going to make money on a live account".

And why waste the money, when we are still learning.
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