EUR/USD 5min - Trendlines and Pivots

Nothing much on the Euro at the moment.

On the Aus there is a bearish channel with bullish divergence which is a strong signal if there is a break up.

Took a -7, It wasn't really a clean enough break, and when it started reversing it was too dangerous.

8:57am - getting ready to go in long again.

Currently long. My original entry was fine, should have just left it be.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1289984635

On this I will move my stop to break even at open and hold out for the pivot. I really have no right to hold out for that long but we have broken through open now and I think it has a chance. EU is currently breaking up with no clear resistance so that hopefully will carry us up.

Neutral news on cable which is currently sky rocketing so still quite happy.

USD/JPY just broken through support. Still happy.

Once the Euro hits the pivot that will be a good time to lock in pips on the Aussie.

10 pips locked in now. Some gap filling going on on the USD/JPY. I still expect Aussie to touch the pivot.

OK 20 pips locked in, them's the rules. Could retrace a bit which would take me out.

I took +28. Cable having trouble breaking through the pivot and Euro broke a trendline so it could drop now. Aussie could/should hit the pivot but +28 is pretty nice.

Here's how it looked. Unfortunately I fudged the entry and took a small loss so it's really 28 - 7 = +21 for the day.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1289988695

I have some pips to make back so I will continue to monitor for very strong set ups. In profit for the week now which is good.

Quick look over at the Euro, I would describe these as good set ups although on the weak side. Clear trend lines but a lack of divergence on the first set up, although we had three touches then a break, and a clear run up to the pivot. Is that a reverse head and shoulders ? Ehh, not really, although I suppose if you squint in just the right way.

Second set up again is weak/good, three distinct touches and waves before breaking and retracing to the trend line. When it broke the first time that gave me early warning to think about exiting the Aussie long, and I did shortly after. You can't see it in the shot but we now have a small triangle forming on the Euro, I wouldn't like to bet on the direction.

I didn't trade either of those because the Aussie signal had some nice divergence going for it, and a much more defined channel.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1289989888

Now a small ascending triangle forming on Aussie, I'm going to go ahead and call the direction 'up' for the rest of the morning for Euro and Aussie, don't quote me though.

10:51 am - It did eventually hit the pivot. I'll try not to think about that too much, it was still a decent trade. Experience will help me with exits.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1289991159

OK that drop down on the Euro was the signal to take if I was going to have another crack at the whip this morning, I'll call it a day now though and get on with other things. Two more days of the week to come back with a vengeance.

Maybe time for one more, I will wait and see if this breaks.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1290005013

Looking at 1.355x for a possible continuation down.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290006025

OK, I reckon 1.3555 could be the top today, however I'm not in the business of picking tops and bottoms. A break of the trend line would normally take me into a trade here but it's not a time of day I have success trading. So i'll sit on my hands for now.

I think this would be a great short, but my entry rules don't line up, too close to the daily pivot. I would put a massive take profit on this because of the 4 hour time frame and the usual 12 pip stop.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290010201

Buyers had one more push up but the trend line is still valid, short could have been taken from 1.3555.

Looking at a potential short on A/U, trend line and bearish divergence.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1290069607

Bull flags on both pairs not but not strong enough to trade under my criteria.

Looking strong on both pairs.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1290078415

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290078513

Looking at a potential short on A/U in the next few minutes.

USD/JPY shooting up but no close below the trend line on the Aussie yet.

Short A/U 0.9879, 12 pip stop, first target R2.

There is a chance this is a fake out as the latest candle closed above the trend line.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290081833

Tightened the stop to 10 pips. The break is very hesitant.

Stopped out -10. A few clues that the trade wouldn't work out such as the pin bars at the break. Now have a wedge on the Euro plus divergence that I'm looking at.

Short on Euro wedge break now. 12 pip stop.

Also short again on the A/U after a more decisive break.

Stop at break even on the Euro lot.

Drop damn you!

Now out break even on the Euro.

Ideally want the stop to break even on the Aussie before 13:30, if not, exit with a loss before then. Stop is now at 10 pips.

Euro wedge is playing out nicely, however had to move the stop to break even early because of the time of day.

Out -2 on A/U. Will check back later.

Short again on the retrace to the trend line. I will move my stop to break even at the bottom of this horizontal channel.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290089496

Stop at break even now.

If we get there, first target would be R2, then R1.

Stopped out break even. Frustrating because the dollar is strengthening on every other pair.

Currently short on A/U 9878.7, 12 pip stop, 9857 is first target.

Rationale - break of a trend line, break of MS1, also a head and shoulders.

Stopped out -12

Got a bullish flag and bullish wedge on A.U and E.U respectively, will wait to see if I can get a good entry.

In on the retrace with a 12 pip stop.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290157304

9900 might prove a sticking point, hopefully the Euro can carry us up though.

If it tests 9900 one more time my stop goes to break even. Closed manually for -7.5. Utterly incapable this week!

Looking back at this trade, it was rushed into and not planned enough. The resistance at 9900 should have been enough to keep me out, but there was also bearish divergence. This is why I closed it out early.

Now short on the Euro, break of a trend line and divergence.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290160133

-14.. got slipped.

Not confident with shorts until the 1.375x area.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290165886

That said, I have a strong signal to short, so I am in at 20 with a 10 pip stop. With my luck the past few days, this will shoot up

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290166741

Stop now at break even and targeting next pivot at least.

That last trade, even though it obviously failed, there was nothing clearly wrong with it. It was half an hour before Bernanke spoke, Any sooner and I wouldn't have entered. If it offered a few more pips, then I would have had a chance to get in break even. The trend line is clearly valid, look at the news spike for instance.

Slipped again so out -1, not sure why as I have never seen the market move so slowly.

I'm short again on the break of another trend line and a H&S, 10 pip stop, stop will be moved to BE at R2.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1290169441

Stop to break even now. Some high frequency scalping going on... this is fun

Depending on PA I will exit at R1 or daily pivot (or break even)

Now would be a good time to cash out (R1) for approx 40 pips, however with a potential engulfer on the 4h, and a Friday sell off (who knows who is going to default over the weekend), I'm going to hold for the pivot.

Still holding for the pivot. Engulfing on the 4 hour is a very good sign.

Ok, I've cracked my first beer for the evening, I have no desire to stay in the market past this time. Only 12 pips from my target, I am pretty confident it will make it past the pivot.

And a profitable week, 25.4 pips, however I fell short of my weekly target, but no loss so I'm happy. Stayed disciplined and no overtly stupid trades. I'm going to blame it on 'tough market conditions' rather than the trader. Next week will stay on £4 p/p until I get to reach my 50 pip target, then I'm clear for £5 p/p. It was a pretty stressful week it has to be said, every morning I approach the screen I have the feeling that a string of bad trades could unravel the entire venture. But every hour trading I gain experience and hammer out my trading plan. I just have to work on my win percentage, taking high probability set ups and ignoring the so-so ones.

And 25.4 pips is not to be sniffed at, under my target risk exposure of 3% per trade, that is 6.35% on the week based on my 12 pip average stop loss. However, not a great Beta, before that last trade I would have been 10% down had I been risking 3% per trade.

Have a good weekend.

This weeks P&L

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1290184594