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AUD/USD

  • #25,241
  • Nov 16, 2010 1:35pm Nov 16, 2010 1:35pm
At the end of the day, nothing beats entering a trade when it looks at it's worst, it means you're in early and your risk is limited to the minimum...but you'd need to know your levels well before you start doing that.
Biggest joker
  • #25,242
  • Nov 16, 2010 2:07pm Nov 16, 2010 2:07pm
I went back to candlesticks mainly cos after trying lots of indicators, i just got personally disillusioned with them lagging, just didnt seem to work out for me so trying to use candles with s and l levels, the jurys still out on them! but i do like them, except when you run into lots of news reports, then you're just looking at fireworks...said by someone who should have stayed away during the news reports today but didn't!
  • #25,243
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:11pm Nov 16, 2010 3:11pm
Just a quick note to you about entering when the trade looks worst is so true, but its safer to enter when it looks bad but has proved that it might come down or go up first.

Example is the GBPUSD trade

Look for your level to be hit and look for the reaction wait for the market to call you right or wrong, sure you lose in stop but the payback is a more confirmed trade.

All the best


Mike Haran
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 8th november 2010.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 8th november result 2010.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #25,244
  • Nov 16, 2010 4:49pm Nov 16, 2010 4:49pm
Where do you think it can retrace up?

9780?
9830?
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,245
  • Nov 16, 2010 5:00pm Nov 16, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
Where do you think it can retrace up?

9780?
9830?
My mediocre trend-line analysis agrees with you, but could get up to just over 9820
  • #25,246
  • Nov 16, 2010 6:22pm Nov 16, 2010 6:22pm
I think any guess of a retrace is just a pure speculation, usually corrective waves are either 3 fast waves that look like impulse waves and are equal ABCD in structure, these usually pass out at about 78% of the move down.

Or you get a saw tooth wave that pulls up to about 50% of the move down. We need to see a bit more wave structure before we can make an assesment of the possible senario. At the moment no proper analysis is possible.

Unless you have a crystal ball handy.

Mike Haran
  • #25,247
  • Nov 16, 2010 6:22pm Nov 16, 2010 6:22pm
Quoting the-game
My mediocre trend-line analysis agrees with you, but could get up to just over 9820
I'm also going for those ranges but I looking slightly lower than 982 instead.
  • #25,248
  • Edited 10:47pm Nov 16, 2010 10:46pm | Edited 10:47pm
Quoting Mike Haran
I think any guess of a retrace is just a pure speculation, usually corrective waves are either 3 fast waves that look like impulse waves and are equal ABCD in structure, these usually pass out at about 78% of the move down.

Or you get a saw tooth wave that pulls up to about 50% of the move down. We need to see a bit more wave structure before we can make an assesment of the possible senario. At the moment no proper analysis is possible.

Unless you have a crystal ball handy.

Mike Haran
It makes sense, however 78.6% (9763) of the last obvious wave, was my target for possible reversal long, it was not respected on the way down but is showing signs of becoming S/R now, perhaps providing a relatively low risk entry, tho the PA is not exactly reassuring.... waiting for an opp. either way.
Biggest joker
  • #25,249
  • Nov 16, 2010 10:52pm Nov 16, 2010 10:52pm
The Swissy looks more interesting actualy, nice tight consolidation.
Biggest joker
  • #25,250
  • Nov 17, 2010 3:17am Nov 17, 2010 3:17am
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the obvious reversal signal on the Ozzie... the weekly chart gave us a classic sell signal at the end of last week, as can be seen in the attached pic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-USD Weekly.jpg Size: 71 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #25,251
  • Edited 5:27am Nov 17, 2010 4:22am | Edited 5:27am
Quoting pt49
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the obvious reversal signal on the Ozzie... the weekly chart gave us a classic sell signal at the end of last week, as can be seen in the attached pic.

I think 9650 won't be broken so easily, though I admit it'll give in eventually...

My scenario (for now) is:

-up to 9830 (today probably)
-down to 9650
-up to 9900 (right shoulder of a daily H&S pattern?)
-down to 9533 (daily 100EMA)

Of course, all this can be wrong (and most probably it is!)

Comments welcome...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,252
  • Nov 17, 2010 7:34am Nov 17, 2010 7:34am
Quoting pt49
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the obvious reversal signal on the Ozzie... the weekly chart gave us a classic sell signal at the end of last week, as can be seen in the attached pic.
I am also thinking the same when some one else posted a similar chart a few days ago so I m pretty much into shorts but I'm pretty concerned that the credibility of the US to many is thin and any minor disruptions might just turn the tides right up
  • #25,253
  • Nov 17, 2010 7:37am Nov 17, 2010 7:37am
She will make another fall , after this climb. k, bye.
  • #25,254
  • Nov 17, 2010 7:43am Nov 17, 2010 7:43am
Quoting denewbie
I am also thinking the same when some one else posted a similar chart a few days ago so I m pretty much into shorts but I'm pretty concerned that the credibility of the US to many is thin and any minor disruptions might just turn the tides right up
Agreed, but I don't base my trades on fundamentals. I figure that the traders who move the markets (certainly none of us guys) have already based their decisions to include the fundamentals.

I just interpret what I see in price action. How far down will the ozzie go? I certainly don't know, and I'll most likely bail on the trade b4 it hits my TP.

Based on where price is I'll move my stop in a day or two, but we could see 9388 within a week or two.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #25,255
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:29am Nov 17, 2010 9:29am
Looking really antsy to break the 0.982 now. That was around the level I expected... ... will I be wrong?
  • #25,256
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:49am Nov 17, 2010 9:49am
Glad to see I haven't missed much over the last two and a half months. US Equities still triangle bound, and data is as mixed as it was in the summer.
"If it was good enough for Gann, it's good enough for me..."
  • #25,257
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:59am Nov 17, 2010 9:59am
Quoting mrbandwidth
I think 9650 won't be broken so easily, though I admit it'll give in eventually...

My scenario (for now) is:

-up to 9830 (today probably)
-down to 9650
-up to 9900 (right shoulder of a daily H&S pattern?)
-down to 9533 (daily 100EMA)

Of course, all this can be wrong (and most probably it is!)

Comments welcome...
9834 -> so far, so good...

(If I hit all these targets, I want a Super-Guru status... )
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,258
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:06am Nov 17, 2010 10:06am
Quoting mrbandwidth
9834 -> so far, so good...

(If I hit all these targets, I want a Super-Guru status... )
9830 was a key MA on M30 and H4. If you don't mind please throw up a chart of what you are seeing.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #25,259
  • Nov 17, 2010 10:51am Nov 17, 2010 10:51am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lifecanbeeasy.JPEG Size: 180 KB


We got a fight versus Trendline and resistance (9827) here.
Pair bearish as well, as channel is showing us.

I'd prefer a short here with around ~ 9766 target

.....

comments please

PhanTi
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #25,260
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:28am Nov 17, 2010 11:28am
Quoting PhAnTi'
Attachment

We got a fight versus Trendline and resistance (9827) here.
Pair bearish as well, as channel is showing us.

I'd prefer a short here with around ~ 9766 target

.....

comments please

PhanTi

The market in europe just closed and there's no more upcoming news till 4 hours later. If it keeps in this direction you should be able to hit your target I believe...
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