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AUD/USD

  • #25,221
  • Nov 16, 2010 2:27am Nov 16, 2010 2:27am
Quoting sibajnok
well, as it just made a new low, a bounce to upside is expected, however I am still bearish, as every x USD pairs are pointing down (as well as RSI indicator)

only above 99 will take bulls take control back.

important levels are 9775, 9750, 9725. from these levels - depending on price action - I will long from there.

so summary, I am not in trade at this moment, just waiting :]
and don't forget, that today is full of important news...
  • #25,222
  • Nov 16, 2010 2:37am Nov 16, 2010 2:37am
Fairly self-explanatory
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #25,223
  • Nov 16, 2010 6:47am Nov 16, 2010 6:47am
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  • #25,224
  • Nov 16, 2010 6:49am Nov 16, 2010 6:49am
Quoting Mike Haran
The minor cycles are red, the major cycles are blue, yesterday we got a minor cycle and major cycle fall together, my price range for a potential reversal is shown.

Technically we are in a position where we are at a .618 projection of the initial impulse wave, so yes for me this is a point of reversal. Once I get into a trade I am very fast to advance my stop, because if I am right the market will not come back and stop me out.

I also trade with 2 contracts so that if I get a move in the direction I am trading I can close one contract to cover...

Quick update on the AUDUSD

I have a time cycle point 17.11.2010 and the current fall matches a profile of a fast fall fractal, I might be getting in too soon as these time cycles are usually late not early, if the low is in and we see a reversal from here then I will be watching the wave pattern to try and get some clues as to whether the previous high was indeed the top of the wave or not.

Small red line is the fractal projection
Green price level is the .78 of the complete swing
Lower red line is the last low

Price action to expect if we are to go up is higher lows, getting in now is fraught with danger, always wait for the price action to confirm your analysis.

Good trading


Mike Haran
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  • #25,225
  • Nov 16, 2010 7:02am Nov 16, 2010 7:02am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment
great one
  • #25,226
  • Nov 16, 2010 7:09am Nov 16, 2010 7:09am
Just be careful we are looking at a big old fall and a time cycle tommorrow, so there is still the chance that we can fall further. The cycles can be out, the price can be out. I was stopped out on my fractal for a very small loss.

That tells me perhaps to wait a little before looking to go long, structurewise this appears to be 7 waves on H4, but the last could still push down some more.

I would say we are close to the bottom, but not there just yet.


Good luck

Mike Haran
  • #25,227
  • Nov 16, 2010 7:23am Nov 16, 2010 7:23am
If someone is interested in to read :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ut-debt-crisis
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #25,228
  • Nov 16, 2010 7:24am Nov 16, 2010 7:24am
Quoting Mike Haran
Just be careful we are looking at a big old fall and a time cycle tommorrow, so there is still the chance that we can fall further. The cycles can be out, the price can be out. I was stopped out on my fractal for a very small loss.

That tells me perhaps to wait a little before looking to go long, structurewise this appears to be 7 waves on H4, but the last could still push down some more.

I would say we are close to the bottom, but not there just yet.


Good luck

Mike Haran
in fact I have been scalping it in the last couple of day, so for me it's not necessary to be profitable to see it flying. I just long it for 10-20 pips every time we are making new lows.

by the way if I am looking at H1 chart it's starting in top left hand corner and ends in bottom right hand corner so it's bearish now. simple.

but it can break up from it's bearish channel and then I will long for 50-100 pips.

good luck
  • #25,229
  • Nov 16, 2010 7:41am Nov 16, 2010 7:41am
I closed my last lot short from 1.0140 @ 9770. Yes, I know my target was 9650, and I know I may be leaving some on the table. I am not flipping long yet. I am taking this early because + 350 pips on this trade sets me in very good shape to close out year end well above my forecast targets for the year---- time to lock in some profits and take risk off the table. Good trades to all!

Regards,
  • #25,230
  • Nov 16, 2010 8:06am Nov 16, 2010 8:06am
Quoting FX-Petra
I closed my last lot short from 1.0140 @ 9770. Yes, I know my target was 9650, and I know I may be leaving some on the table. I am not flipping long yet. I am taking this early because + 350 pips on this trade sets me in very good shape to close out year end well above my forecast targets for the year---- time to lock in some profits and take risk off the table. Good trades to all!

Regards,
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_2_68.gif
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #25,231
  • Nov 16, 2010 8:21am Nov 16, 2010 8:21am
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  • #25,232
  • Nov 16, 2010 8:32am Nov 16, 2010 8:32am
If the top is in on the AUDUSD then the first fall often takes out the last swing. There are certainly no prizes for being first in on a trade for sure, as the time cycle is not till tommorrow we could do a 127|% swing low taking out the last low by some pips.

This is located at 0.95965

this would then conirm to me the bias is now down and look to sell the next pull up, which in the case of the AUDUSD might be 70% of the current fall.

to go long you really need to see the last swing on the hour chart exceeded at a potential reversal point in order to take the trade, wait for the retrace and enter on a break of the hourly high.

Plenty of money in these moves.

All the best


Mike Haran
  • #25,233
  • Nov 16, 2010 8:43am Nov 16, 2010 8:43am
Quoting Mike Haran
If the top is in on the AUDUSD then the first fall often takes out the last swing. There are certainly no prizes for being first in on a trade for sure, as the time cycle is not till tommorrow we could do a 127|% swing low taking out the last low by some pips.

This is located at 0.95965

this would then conirm to me the bias is now down and look to sell the next pull up, which in the case of the AUDUSD might be 70% of the current fall.

to go long you really need to see the last swing on the hour chart exceeded at a potential reversal...
Looks like our top is in place and with the recent Dollar strength any buying is risky.

Monthly
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  • #25,234
  • Edited 9:34am Nov 16, 2010 9:01am | Edited 9:34am
Hammer candle at 1H

Possible MACD 1H bullish divergence (still unconfirmed)
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,235
  • Nov 16, 2010 9:35am Nov 16, 2010 9:35am
So the question is are we at a top?

Gann often looked at the markets just like we do and he used a technique called the overbalancing of price and time. What he did was looked at how far a correction against the trend went in both price and time. One of his rules was that a correction that was greater in price and time then any corrections since the move begain would potentially tell you a top was in.

Of all the corrections on the way up, the largest against the trend was 550 points and took 9 days to play out, so tommorrow is going to be a telling day for two reasons, firstly I have a potential turn in time, this can be a day out, if that happens tommorrow, then that is an equal match in time, not greater.

To give me confidence that this was a top I would really want price to fall to below the 127% area of the last swing at 0.95076, this is 230 points below us. As the AUDUSD moves about 100 points a day, we could see this occur.
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  • #25,236
  • Nov 16, 2010 10:01am Nov 16, 2010 10:01am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Hammer candle at 1H

Possible MACD 1H bullish divergence (still unconfirmed)

Another Hammer candlestick at 1H.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #25,237
  • Nov 16, 2010 11:06am Nov 16, 2010 11:06am
Do you think a hammer candle indicate a trend reversal???

The only candle I found any use was when I had a power cut last week and went searching for my wife.

Candle formation mean something when they form in conjunction with support and resistance, on their own I think they fail 50% of the time. A friend looked at a mobo candle these long candles about 150-200 points in length, the upshot was they mean nothing.

I never got anywhere with them, maybe its just not my thing, hope it works for you Only got a hit on the weekly S1.

Anyone here using candle sticks to trade, I would love to expand my mind to include them.

Many kind regards


Mike Haran
  • #25,238
  • Nov 16, 2010 11:19am Nov 16, 2010 11:19am
hi.
there are many things in this market like candlesticks. diferent paterns,strategies & ..... but whenever we trust them we lose so what should we do trust or not? if not then how to trade & if yes why do we lose?
Thanks alot.
  • #25,239
  • Nov 16, 2010 11:24am Nov 16, 2010 11:24am
Quoting Mike Haran
Do you think a hammer candle indicate a trend reversal???

The only candle I found any use was when I had a power cut last week and went searching for my wife.

Candle formation mean something when they form in conjunction with support and resistance, on their own I think they fail 50% of the time. A friend looked at a mobo candle these long candles about 150-200 points in length, the upshot was they mean nothing.

I never got anywhere with them, maybe its just not my thing, hope it works for you Only got a hit on the weekly S1.

Anyone here...
Well said.
Biggest joker
  • #25,240
  • Nov 16, 2010 11:33am Nov 16, 2010 11:33am
I use candlesticks on all TF's, and they can be usefull provided they're used in conjuction with S/R.
Biggest joker
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