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  • #101
  • Feb 7, 2006 7:28pm Feb 7, 2006 7:28pm
Quoting vegas
cici,
I'm still short 7 contracts. Market came very close to stopping me out at 1.7468 [see prior posts].

If I had been stopped out, it doesn't mean it's time to get long. I am not one of those traders who is always in the market with a position.

1.7459 bid would have been the exact 50% retracement of todays range [1.7515 high - 1.7403 low]. Two points I want to make here. 1) Although the chart [from the post above] looks impressive, the actual pip range of the hour bar is about 25 - 30 pips on the move up off the low. 2) After that, no real follow through of any kind; market just kind of chopping around.

Although the market did technically break the 50% number, it only did so by a pip or two. That's one of the reasons I put my stop a few pips away In this case, I just got lucky I didn't get taken out.

The daily doesn't really show a good formation for a reversal, and with the 2 points I made above, that's why I haven't gotten long [yet].

Now tonight, if the market closes near where it's at now [1.7438], opens and starts to go higher from here [1.7435 - 40 area], I know from past history that 30 and 47 pips from the open is key. So my buy stop will be repositioned after the close to 1.7488.

So, it really boils down to the lack of speed off the low and the markets ability to do nothing when it violated 1.7459.

This is why I am not long yet.

Hope this gives some clarity.
Thanks Vegas for the great inputs !! May be my charts will help people where NOT to enter ;-)
  • #102
  • Feb 7, 2006 7:29pm Feb 7, 2006 7:29pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Hi Vegas,

Your "next day" starts at 3PM ? Chicago time? Forgive a bonehead but that would be 21:00 GMT?

The reason I ask is I'd like to set up my spreadsheet (spot) to align more with your futures movements.

Thanx again<
HeavyJ
HJ,

Yes, that's right.
Since CST = GMT - 6,
then CST + 6 = GMT
so 3pm (15:00) CST would be 15:00 + 6:00 = 21:00 GMT

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #103
  • Feb 7, 2006 7:43pm Feb 7, 2006 7:43pm
Quoting diallist
HJ,

Yes, that's right.
Since CST = GMT - 6,
then CST + 6 = GMT
so 3pm (15:00) CST would be 15:00 + 6:00 = 21:00 GMT

Dial
Thanx Dial
HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #104
  • Feb 7, 2006 7:59pm Feb 7, 2006 7:59pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Hi Vegas,

Your "next day" starts at 3PM ? Chicago time? Forgive a bonehead but that would be 21:00 GMT?

The reason I ask is I'd like to set up my spreadsheet (spot) to align more with your futures movements.

Thanx again<
HeavyJ
HeavyJ,
yes, 21:00 GMT. And when daylight saving time comes along it will be 22:00 GMT
vegas
  • #105
  • Feb 7, 2006 8:05pm Feb 7, 2006 8:05pm
Quoting jotty
Do we need to subscribe just to see the signals?
Jotty,
YES, otherwise it would not be fair to those who have subscribed.

I will continue to talk about the method and answer whatever questions you may have, and once the trades are "on" talk about the methodology of the trade on the forum.
vegas
  • #106
  • Feb 7, 2006 8:06pm Feb 7, 2006 8:06pm
Quoting diallist
Thank you Vegas. I suspected it had something to do with rollover interest.

I want to borrow the words of my friend Quinn, another FF member, and say that the PAP on C2 has made me "happier than a pig'n shit!". Although I've only seen the signals today, as soon as I got them I jumped on the charts to divine your rationale. In time, as I absorb more of your insight, I expect to start anticipating your signals. Thanks for allowing me a glimpse inside your head!

I am finding that I am getting pleasure from two directions on the forum. First, from helping newbies cover ground I've long been over, and second, hearing from others, like yourself, who are sharing their experiences with the road ahead. Thanks for that Vegas.

Dial
Dial,
Thanks for your kind comments
vegas
  • #107
  • Feb 7, 2006 9:49pm Feb 7, 2006 9:49pm
Hi Vegas, Just jumping in here to say thanks for everything. I enjoy reading your post and trading models you gave us. But in particular I enjoy reading your trading stories and pit stories. It's a little like reading market wizards and gaining a better understanding how the market really works.

I think a book may be in your future.

play
  • #108
  • Feb 7, 2006 10:52pm Feb 7, 2006 10:52pm
Quoting Playmaker
Hi Vegas, Just jumping in here to say thanks for everything. I enjoy reading your post and trading models you gave us. But in particular I enjoy reading your trading stories and pit stories. It's a little like reading market wizards and gaining a better understanding how the market really works.

I think a book may be in your future.

play
TOTALLY AGREE!

HeavyJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #109
  • Feb 7, 2006 10:54pm Feb 7, 2006 10:54pm
Yea I agree. Aside from the learning sections of your articles, I eagerly look forward to reading your how you experianced your trading in the pits. I like the one in the first VWB.... 'Fag Trading' or something LOL.

In my opinion a thread with you stories in another section of this forum would get many hits as well...

Please consider that in your spare time!
  • #110
  • Feb 7, 2006 10:54pm Feb 7, 2006 10:54pm
Yea, gotta agree with them.

Your stories are really interesting.
Maybe you should consider publishing a book vegas.
  • #111
  • Feb 7, 2006 11:05pm Feb 7, 2006 11:05pm
Quoting jotty
Yea, gotta agree with them.

Your stories are really interesting.
Maybe you should consider publishing a book vegas.
If he published the book I would be hooked on it like no other... and I hate reading books for leasure.

Im seriouse, those stories get me in them. And then, 2 pages later, its over, lol.
  • #112
  • Feb 8, 2006 12:35am Feb 8, 2006 12:35am
Quoting xspowerx
If he published the book I would be hooked on it like no other... and I hate reading books for leasure.

Im seriouse, those stories get me in them. And then, 2 pages later, its over, lol.
Jotty and everyone,

I think my next file will just be pit stories. Lighten things up a little. Maybe 10 or so of the funniest things I've ever seen.

Really, the thing I miss most about being on the exchange floor every day is the stuff away from trading that make you laugh until your crying. I mean this stuff happened every day. It was like "Animal House" live and in color.

Yeah, I think I'll do it. You guys won't be able to trade for a week because you sides will hurt.
vegas
  • #113
  • Feb 8, 2006 1:08am Feb 8, 2006 1:08am
Quoting vegas
Jotty and everyone,

I think my next file will just be pit stories. Lighten things up a little. Maybe 10 or so of the funniest things I've ever seen.

Really, the thing I miss most about being on the exchange floor every day is the stuff away from trading that make you laugh until your crying. I mean this stuff happened every day. It was like "Animal House" live and in color.

Yeah, I think I'll do it. You guys won't be able to trade for a week because you sides will hurt.
Alright! Lookin' forward to the release of VMB (Vegas Mirth Builder)
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #114
  • Feb 8, 2006 3:58am Feb 8, 2006 3:58am
Quoting neilt
Hi All

resident excel moron here - please disregard spreadsheet from my previous post (post #63) as the H & L in column "H" were reversed. I tried to edit the post and change the attachment but alas - that didn't workhttp://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon8.gif.

I have now fixed this error and the attached 'revised' spreadsheet should be OK.

Sorry for the trouble - let me know if there is something else incorrect.

cheers
neil
Hi Neil,

Thanks for posting that xls file. A couple of things: first, I'm wondering whether the median values at the bottom of each page shouldn't be dynamic (i.e. vs. 30 and 47 being simply repeated across all currency pairs). Does anybody else believe this should be the case as well? If so, this would change the values slightly, e.g for GBPUSD the median values become 28, 40 and 51.5 for columns K through M respectively. To make this change, L109 should reflect the value in K111 and M109 should =L111. Also, cells in column L should read e.g. =IF(I106>$L$109,I106,"") for row 106 repeated across all cells in column L - ditto for column M.

Second, I wanted to also display the percentage of cells that surpassed the 20 day moving median within 5 ticks/pips (nice to have), so I changed the content of cell J109 & J110 to:
=TEXT(COUNTIF(J24:J106,"=Y"),0) & " (" & TEXT((COUNTIF(J24:J106,"=Y"))/(COUNTA(J24:J106)),"0%") & ")"
and
=TEXT(COUNTIF(J24:J106,"=N"),0) & " (" & TEXT((COUNTIF(J24:J106,"=N"))/(COUNTA(J24:J106)),"0%") & ")"

BlueMeasure
  • #115
  • Feb 8, 2006 4:27am Feb 8, 2006 4:27am
Quoting bluemeasure
Hi Neil,

Thanks for posting that xls file. A couple of things: first, I'm wondering whether the median values at the bottom of each page shouldn't be dynamic (i.e. vs. 30 and 47 being simply repeated across all currency pairs). Does anybody else believe this should be the case as well? If so, this would change the values slightly, e.g for GBPUSD the median values become 28, 40 and 51.5 for columns K through M respectively. To make this change, L109 should reflect the value in K111 and M109 should =L111. Also, cells in column L should read e.g. =IF(I106>$L$109,I106,"") for row 106 repeated across all cells in column L - ditto for column M.

Second, I wanted to also display the percentage of cells that surpassed the 20 day moving median within 5 ticks/pips (nice to have), so I changed the content of cell J109 & J110 to:
=TEXT(COUNTIF(J24:J106,"=Y"),0) & " (" & TEXT((COUNTIF(J24:J106,"=Y"))/(COUNTA(J24:J106)),"0%") & ")"
and
=TEXT(COUNTIF(J24:J106,"=N"),0) & " (" & TEXT((COUNTIF(J24:J106,"=N"))/(COUNTA(J24:J106)),"0%") & ")"

BlueMeasure
Blue,

I thought about your post, and I have the following suggestion:

I think Vegas has 30 pips as a minimum from experience; however, having said this:

I think you could modify the cells so that they are static if the value is 30 or less than 30, and maybe they could be dynamic if greater than 30.

Regards,

5MinuteStudent
  • #116
  • Feb 8, 2006 4:55am Feb 8, 2006 4:55am
The GBP high low for February 7th, 06 should be modified.

From MT4, I have the following values: 1.7401 - 1.7515

Regards,
  • #117
  • Feb 8, 2006 5:27am Feb 8, 2006 5:27am
Quoting 5MinuteStudent
Blue,

I thought about your post, and I have the following suggestion:

I think Vegas has 30 pips as a minimum from experience; however, having said this:

I think you could modify the cells so that they are static if the value is 30 or less than 30, and maybe they could be dynamic if greater than 30.

Regards,

5MinuteStudent
As an example, I get for a static 30 pip move above the open a possible buy signal at 1.7466.

I get for a dynamic 40.5 pip move above the open a possible buy signal at 1.7477.

This is still dependent of course on other conditions like new lows (at the time of this post the price is 2-pips above yesterdays low of 1.7401). This brings into question if yesterday was the low since today there are so far no new lows.

Conditions like distance from the open (currently at 1.7438) greater than the open by 2 pips.

Conditions like speed of the move. No speed so far.

Conditions like the 50% retracement. Current range 72 pips. 50% of this is 36 pips. From the low this is 1.7438.
We are just about at this level. This rule is active now as far as I can tell.

I think that given the lack of speed so far I would go with a buy signal if the price is greater than 1.7477 assuming the move has speed.

Does anybody else see this differently? This is the first time I fiddle with these rules so I am not sure if I am missing something.

Regards,
  • #118
  • Feb 8, 2006 5:48am Feb 8, 2006 5:48am
Hi BlueMeasure
re:-
------------------------
I'm wondering whether the median values at the bottom of each page shouldn't be dynamic (i.e. vs. 30 and 47 being simply repeated across all currency pairs). Does anybody else believe this should be the case as well?
------------------------
I agree with you Mr Blue, I figure the critical levels will change over time and for each currency pair.

BTW: I display the 30-day ATR pips in the top left corner of my chart as a reference point.

rjb1024
  • #119
  • Feb 8, 2006 10:14am Feb 8, 2006 10:14am
Just got stopped out of yesterday's USD/JPY trade. It hurts when you let a 100 pips fall off the table, but I guess discipline is the key.
  • #120
  • Feb 8, 2006 11:03am Feb 8, 2006 11:03am
Quoting Anpar
Just got stopped out of yesterday's USD/JPY trade. It hurts when you let a 100 pips fall off the table, but I guess discipline is the key.
Anpar,
Everybody in Jpy finally got stopped out at breakeven, though I recommended to subscribers to take 1/3 of position off the table yesterday with profit and let the rest ride.

There is an important point though that I want you to consider, and I will make it with the following metaphor.

If you take newborn, baby fleas [you know, the kind your dog gets] and put them in a jar and leave the lid off, they will jump and fly out. If you put them in the jar and put a piece of glass over the opening, for the next couple of days they will jump and hit the glass. After a couple of days, you can actually take the glass awasy, and the fleas will stay in the jar. Even though the jar is now open, they will not attempt to leave because they learned that if they do they hit the glass. So easy to leave, but they won't do it!!

One of the hardest things to learn as a trader is to forgoe the chump-change and concentrate your energies on bigger jackpots. Beleive me, there was a time when if I would have given up 50 -100 pips I would have been depressed for a week because I let it slip through my fingers.
Watching other big-time traders early in my career gave me the confidence to stop being a scalper or swing trader for chump-change [as one guy used to tell me]. If you had taken the bait, what would you be thinking if yen right now was at 116.

The important thing was that you had a lead in the trade and it was a free ticket, not that it came back.

Hope this helps.
vegas
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