Quoting vegasDislikedcici,
I'm still short 7 contracts. Market came very close to stopping me out at 1.7468 [see prior posts].
If I had been stopped out, it doesn't mean it's time to get long. I am not one of those traders who is always in the market with a position.
1.7459 bid would have been the exact 50% retracement of todays range [1.7515 high - 1.7403 low]. Two points I want to make here. 1) Although the chart [from the post above] looks impressive, the actual pip range of the hour bar is about 25 - 30 pips on the move up off the low. 2) After that, no real follow through of any kind; market just kind of chopping around.
Although the market did technically break the 50% number, it only did so by a pip or two. That's one of the reasons I put my stop a few pips away In this case, I just got lucky I didn't get taken out.
The daily doesn't really show a good formation for a reversal, and with the 2 points I made above, that's why I haven't gotten long [yet].
Now tonight, if the market closes near where it's at now [1.7438], opens and starts to go higher from here [1.7435 - 40 area], I know from past history that 30 and 47 pips from the open is key. So my buy stop will be repositioned after the close to 1.7488.
So, it really boils down to the lack of speed off the low and the markets ability to do nothing when it violated 1.7459.
This is why I am not long yet.
Hope this gives some clarity.Ignored