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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,221
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:32am Nov 14, 2010 8:32am
eurusd I am not sure now until I see how price will react. 3MAs are in proper orde ron 1H, but I do not trade form 15 min. so, I will be waiting when thigs get clear according to this chart:

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  • #9,222
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:38am Nov 14, 2010 8:38am
gbp/usd is looking for breakout. 2 daily bars with same highs but higher close on second bar. if it breaks it is nice to wait and see how previous high holds, for no now trading. but if everything goes well, and it retraces i think 1.6100 is a nice level to watch to go long if it holds.

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  • #9,223
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:39am Nov 14, 2010 8:39am
I wonder what people think of GBP/JPY? it is in interesting situation. on 4H it is oin beautiful up trend with possible entry according Nightmoves/ Hector's method, but we have those weekly down trend lines just above and in the middle.
  • #9,224
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:49am Nov 14, 2010 8:49am
Quoting shiko
I wonder what people think of GBP/JPY? it is in interesting situation. on 4H it is oin beautiful up trend with possible entry according Nightmoves/ Hector's method, but we have those weekly down trend lines just above and in the middle.

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hourly defined supply level
  • #9,225
  • Nov 14, 2010 9:00am Nov 14, 2010 9:00am
Quoting shiko
I think that if price hits say 1.3500 reaches 1.3530 and goes down., entry should be at 1.3500 and stop at say 1.3550. 50 pips, not 100. it is easier to get 150 pips to have 1:3 R:R than to have 300 pips to have same ratio 1:3 with 100 pips stop.
agreed, but don't limit yourself to 1:3 R:R.
  • #9,226
  • Nov 14, 2010 9:07am Nov 14, 2010 9:07am
Quoting shiko
I wonder what people think of GBP/JPY? it is in interesting situation. on 4H it is oin beautiful up trend with possible entry according Nightmoves/ Hector's method, but we have those weekly down trend lines just above and in the middle.
You can of course trade the h4 uptrend, but if you want to win long-term you should stick to the long-term trend.
The mindset of trying to trade each and every action to the upside and downside is what makes traders lose. It is very enticing, but if you stick with the long-term trend, you will be among the winners.

Just my opinion.

By the way, you probably know the saying: bulls win, bears win and pigs get slaughtered. (not sure if the saying goes exactly like that). But the insight behind that saying is profound.
  • #9,227
  • Nov 14, 2010 9:18am Nov 14, 2010 9:18am
Quoting Custos
You can of course trade the h4 uptrend, but if you want to win long-term you should stick to the long-term trend.
The mindset of trying to trade each and every action to the upside and downside is what makes traders lose. It is very enticing, but if you stick with the long-term trend, you will be among the winners.

Just my opinion.

By the way, you probably know the saying: bulls win, bears win and pigs get slaughtered. (not sure if the saying goes exactly like that). But the insight behind that saying is profound.

yeah, I am actually bearish on this pair and it is in longer term down trend.
but picked wrong time to go short. so, i will wait and see how it will react around these trend lines.
  • #9,228
  • Nov 14, 2010 9:20am Nov 14, 2010 9:20am
Quoting shiko
yeah, I am actually bearish on this pair and it is in longer term down trend.
but picked wrong time to go short. so, i will wait and see how it will react around these trend lines.
good plan!
  • #9,229
  • Nov 14, 2010 9:45am Nov 14, 2010 9:45am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment

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Red

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  • #9,230
  • Nov 15, 2010 5:12am Nov 15, 2010 5:12am
closed short E/U for 65 pips. NightMoves/Hector method set up 1H, trigger 15 min. entered on bpc and retracament. 25 pips risk. Eur/Cad looks like also around bpc according to NightMoves, but overall retracement move was only to 23 fib. will pass.
  • #9,231
  • Nov 15, 2010 6:02am Nov 15, 2010 6:02am
Quote
You can of course trade the h4 uptrend, but if you want to win long-term you should stick to the long-term trend.
The mindset of trying to trade each and every action to the upside and downside is what makes traders lose. It is very enticing, but if you stick with the long-term trend, you will be among the winners.


Hi ya Custos..

Sorry if this comes across as a silly question but on this point your just saying basically say the trend is long wait for price to come back to a support area with PA go long, price goes up hits a trouble area moves back down but does not take out your original entry (Do not try to profit on that little reversal!! "The mindset of trying to trade each and every action to the upside and downside is what makes traders lose.") price moves on up through the trouble area, move stop to BE, hits another trouble area, then moves up again, put stop just below that trouble area, so on an so on until your stop is taken out?
Don't know if you understand my rant? lol

Cheers,
Adrian
  • #9,232
  • Nov 15, 2010 6:04am Nov 15, 2010 6:04am
Quoting aarangio
Hi ya Custos..

Sorry if this comes across as a silly question but on this point your just saying basically say the trend is long wait for price to come back to a support area with PA go long, price goes up hits a trouble area moves back down but does not take out your original entry (Do not try to profit on that little reversal!! "The mindset of trying to trade each and every action to the upside and downside is what makes traders lose.") price moves on up through the trouble area, move stop to BE, hits another trouble area, then moves...
yep, that's how I would do it.
  • #9,233
  • Nov 15, 2010 6:18am Nov 15, 2010 6:18am
Quoting Custos
yep, that's how I would do it.
Actually sorry Custos a query on this point again..

As a professional short/medium/long term trader could they have several trades on at the same time as they would be waiting for the trades to play out?
Would they only have so many on risking up to a maximum % amount of money on there account or stick with only a couple as to many to cover?
Most every time ignoring reversals and ONLY taking trades that are going with the trend with PA?
This would be irrelevant for a day trader?

Sorry for all the questions, I've burnt so many accounts and I'm trying to get back to basics and trying to shake off the bad habits and bring in the good!..

Cheers,
Adrian
  • #9,234
  • Nov 15, 2010 6:41am Nov 15, 2010 6:41am
Quoting aarangio
Actually sorry Custos a query on this point again..

As a professional short/medium/long term trader could they have several trades on at the same time as they would be waiting for the trades to play out?
yes, why not
Quoting aarangio
Would they only have so many on risking up to a maximum % amount of money on there account or stick with only a couple as to many to cover?
Well, I think you have to find a max % risk which you are willing to take for all your portfolio
Quoting aarangio
Most every time ignoring reversals and ONLY taking trades that are going with the trend with PA?
yeah, I would only go with the trend, but there are many different styles, just thinking that trend trading is the easiest to accomplish.
Quoting aarangio
This would be irrelevant for a day trader?
I would say you gotta be really good to daytrade.

Again, you have to have reasonable profit expectations. Most newbies think they can make a 100% a month consistently, and that is exactly why they fail. Look at most funds, they are pretty good if they achieve 20 - 30% a year and with 40% a year they are exceptional, and those guys running the fund are pretty smart guys. You think you are smarter than them? Maybe, but unlikely...
If you tone down your expectations to reasonable account growth and only take the best setups that present themselves, then you will start to win.

Now how do you know what is a good setup? Have you ever backtested any of the systems you traded? I mean real backtesting that goes back years in data? Do you know if the systems you traded have an edge in the long-term across various markets? Well, if you didn't do that, then this is a good starting point...

I know trading requires harder work than first meets the eye, but if you are serious about your trading you have to do an exceptional amount of work and not just trade any system somebody tells you is profitable.

Hope that helps.
  • #9,235
  • Nov 15, 2010 6:58am Nov 15, 2010 6:58am
Quoting Custos
Again, you have to have reasonable profit expectations. Most newbies think they can make a 100% a month consistently, and that is exactly why they fail. Look at most funds, they are pretty good if they achieve 20 - 30% a year and with 40% a year they are exceptional, and those guys running the fund are pretty smart guys. You think you are smarter than them? Maybe, but unlikely...
If you tone down your expectations to reasonable account growth and only take the best setups that present themselves, then you will start to win.

Now how do you...
Excellent!, thanks for your help and explanations Custos, most appreciated!

It's been quite an eye opener the last few months as I've been slowly going over and over all the bad habits I've picked up over the years trying to kick them out which has been a BIG challenge in itself and replacing them with more sound, simple, logical principles and it has been very interesting in itself some of the things that have come to light which I didn't notice before and are very obvious now , sort of "a ha" moments I think you would say

Thanks for your answers and help again Custos..

Cheers,
Adrian
  • #9,236
  • Nov 15, 2010 7:21am Nov 15, 2010 7:21am
Quoting aarangio
Excellent!, thanks for your help and explanations Custos, most appreciated!

It's been quite an eye opener the last few months as I've been slowly going over and over all the bad habits I've picked up over the years trying to kick them out which has been a BIG challenge in itself and replacing them with more sound, simple, logical principles and it has been very interesting in itself some of the things that have come to light which I didn't notice before and are very obvious now , sort of "a ha" moments I think you would say

Thanks...
good to hear
you are on a good path!
  • #9,237
  • Nov 15, 2010 8:37am Nov 15, 2010 8:37am
I have a quick question about the ADR. Is the ADR just the length price will probably range for the day? I am guessing this is the case. I only really trade the US session. Every morning I notice that for the NM/Hector trades that the ADR has pretty much been met during London. So this makes it hard for me to take these setups with price already maxed.

Before I started trading the NM/Hector setup's I traded only using S/R with price action ("Trade what you see not what you know" thread here). I have had so so success with NM setup's and I have been testing trying to blend the 2 methods to give me better success with both. I had better success with S/R and price action. But I see the potential this system offers. I have only been trading the NM style trades for the last couple of months.

So knowing this is truly a range I can feel more comfortable trading it as a range but still in the direction of the trend. How much weight do you give the ADR?

Also it seems like this thread has maybe slowly moved away from the NM/hector style setups. I went through the Hector course before I started following this thread. So I knew the setup for the most part and did not read this thread from the beginning (I was looking for a place to chat and learn more about the Hector setups. I found something more.). Should I go back and read this thread from the start to find out the changes. It seems now the thread trades more price action which is what I am use to. If so does anyone know about how far into this thread things started leaning away from NM setups? Or am I completely wrong in my assumption?

I hope that makes sense!
  • #9,238
  • Nov 15, 2010 8:46am Nov 15, 2010 8:46am
Quoting Siddhi69
I have a quick question about the ADR....
Well, as was stated in the first post, this is a thread about trend trading, not only hector style setups. So, whatever you use is welcome as long as it's with the trend and not too much based on useless indicators.
ATR is only important if you trade time-frames below h4.
I don't know, in the beginning pretty much everything was hector setups, and then let's say I and a couple of others also introduced other methods of exploiting the trend.

hope that helps
  • #9,239
  • Nov 15, 2010 9:25am Nov 15, 2010 9:25am
Thanks Custos! It makes more sense to me now! I guess I had a pre-determined idea that this was mostly about the hector style setups. I think I will go back and read from the beginning and learn what you guys are showing. That way I can interact with more relevant questions.
Thanks!
  • #9,240
  • Nov 15, 2010 9:27am Nov 15, 2010 9:27am
Quoting Custos
Well, as was stated in the first post, this is a thread about trend trading, not only hector style setups. So, whatever you use is welcome as long as it's with the trend and not too much based on useless indicators.
ATR is only important if you trade time-frames below h4.
I don't know, in the beginning pretty much everything was hector setups, and then let's say I and a couple of others also introduced other methods of exploiting the trend.

hope that helps

All these methods are like a family. say you entered according to DanUk method, trade goes well, then things develops well again, retracement line is broken, bpc, you add to already positive existing position according to DanUk another one according to NightMoves. I would put it this way, these methods are only about how adventurous trend tarder is. NightMoves' method is more concervative but I noticed that DanUk also has similar method but without using 3MAs, only retracement inside line breakout.
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