EUR/USD 5min - Trendlines and Pivots

Here's how it's looking on A/U, Euro is dead at the moment.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289472188

There is some divergence so a drop below the channel would be a reasonable signal.

- Finally broken so if it closes below the trend line I will wait for a retrace and go short.

- It didn't close below so no trade yet.

- Decisive break, just need a retrace.

- ARGH Can't believe it. I was so busy watching the Aussie that there was a fantastic signal on the Euro. To make it worse I have now missed the boat on this trade.

Oh well..

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289475496

14:00 - not much happening still, a small rising channel on Euro plus divergence, may be a short opportunity.

14:36 - channel breached, will consider a short if it closes below, will reconsider if it touches S1 first.

14:40 - $%"£$"£$!! I entered a short, but as too often happens IG index tear off tickets froze and didn't enter the trade. The whole platform jams up and you have to log out and log back in, and it's a 50/50 chance whether the trade is running or not. I am literally hammering the table with rage as that was a 30+ point trade!

Here's how it should have looked. I will turn off the charts now, a zero day is better than a losing day. Two bumper missed trades is tough to take but tomorrow is another day.

I have set up a second monitor so I can watch both charts at once now. However you can't trade 5 minute charts without good execution. IG is tax free as it's a spreadbetting firm, but I am considering just switching back to Alpari so I can use metatrader. IG's platform is just so cumbersome.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1289486788

In a short scalp from 56 with a 10 pip stop. Targetting the 32 area. It is a fairly weak set up but with the trend so not high risk.

Stop now at break even. TP is 1.3632

Reversed 4 pips short of my target. Out break even.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289498725

Currently long on the break of a trend line on the Aussie and strengthening MACD, including bullish divergence. Entry 81 with 10 pip stop.

Still deciding on target, will look to move to break even at S1.

Stop now at 73, just, inside the trend line.

Not sure why I am trading at this time, I think it falls into the category of 'boredom trading' and poor discipline. Even so it is not a bad set up.

OK, I got a phone call so I closed this with a couple of pips profit. EU is looking good for a long but this is not my time of day to trade!

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1289504680

Either a bounce or a break out here..

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289551140

I am long at 45 with a 12 pip stop.

09:10am - Stopped out -13 (I widened the stop).

Wouldn't say no to this either

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289551340

Currently short on this break too. This would be highly irregular if they both won! Hah.

09:10am - Target .9822

09:18am - stopped out -12

Triangle forming on the Aussie, looking for another short.

10:12 am - It's a break up so a long is on the cards

10:15 am - Long at 75 with a 12 pip stop.

Stop now at break even, will target S2 (0.9915)

GO BULLS! Closed early at 0.9911.

Up to £4 pp next week. Roughly 47 pips this week which is close enough to my target. I should have bagged more yesterday but my platform froze.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289558180

Also interesting to note that the breakout worked fine, but with a 12 pip stop there was just no way to trade it. How sweet this would have been if it was a clean break.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289558678

Got a triangle on AUD/USD, I will wait and see which way that breaks.

EUR/USD has some bullish divergence, could go either way.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289810510

Long at 0.9835 with a 12 pip stop. Target is 0.9855.

There's the movement - stop now at break even.

Target hit, although for some reason I went in and closed manually at 53. Emotion creeping in because of the larger stakes I think. The momentum was clearly there but it's hard to think straight when the blood is pumping. However, +18 for the day is not too shabby. How great it feels to be finished "work" before 9:30... !

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289813120

It's also worth looking at that the momentum carried it past my target and it could well shoot up into the 90s. So is this a missed opportunity? I don't think so - there was clear support at MS1, including the 200EMA just above, downwards trend ... not worth it on this occasion.

Nice trade Mysterio! Not to shabby at all, I'd be happy with my work done by coffee and scone time...maybe more like lunch/brunch for forex traders in the US but hey!

+18 is a great way to start the week.

Are you off the EUR/USD? or just doing both?

Trading A/U alongside the Euro now Kush, I just discovered the spread is virtually identical on my broker - 1.6 pips average. It moves in a pretty similar way. I do like the idea of specialising on one pair, but I have a 24" monitor (I bought it for gaming years ago) running off my laptop so I can monitor both of them at the same time. With the single pair, you can be watching all morning with no opportunities and I naturally start looking for weak set ups. Little triangles like the one I posted this morning are gold. They almost always give you a chance to get your stop to break even, and usually go on to give you at least 10 - 20 pips. A guy on another journal got literally hundreds of pips on one of these set ups only risking a handful. Nice little double top there at roughly 5:15 am but I rarely trade those.

That said, I missed a killer trade on the Euro last week because I was focussing on A/U...

I have to say, although I am only really making pocket money at the moment, the idea is creeping into my head that I could do this as a 'job' one day. I know it can all come crashing down at any time though. A couple of lapses of discipline is all it takes. OK, enough day dreaming for now.

Mysterio, We're going to do this one day. The market gives an opportunity to make pips everyday, with effort and time we're going to tear it up. The great trader is inside all of us, we just have to open our mind and become profitable.

You'll get there soon Mysterio! Have a good week brotha!

BTW, I found this book. I don't know about the validity of the stories, but still inspiring. Read the rags to riches in the attachment.

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-...-attached.html

It's done every month, we will be there one day.

I have heard of that book, I'll give it a read when I get some time, thanks!

OK, a couple of trend lines breaking simultaneously on EUR & AUS, I decided not to take the AUS one because a couple of pivots were in the way. It is currently breaking quite nicely though. Similar story with the Euro. Break currently under way, but it looks like it might have pulled away a bit much for me to get in, plus MS1 was in the way. Another opportunity always around the corner. Tempting to short E/U at 1.3601 but holding off for now.

Here's how I would expect it to play out, but with MS1 in the way and some news due out it's not for me

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289898986

I would have been stopped out now so I'm glad I didn't pull the trigger!

Pretty interesting to observe anyway.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289901178

... And look where price decides to reverse after the news spike. COINCIDENCE??

Divergence tells you all you need to know about the strength of the upwards movement...

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289902596

Rising wedge in development on the Euro, watching it like a hawk.

Also currently long on the A/U with a 10 pip stop.

Stopped out -10

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289904443

11:30 am - not much happening now, will take a break and check back a little later. If I can make my pips back plus a little more, then great.

Currently short on the break of a trend line EUR/USD from 1.3616 with a 12 point stop.

Edit : Stopped out almost immediately, ouch!

I want to go short again but I need a retrace to 20ish.

OK. No trades at the moment as US PPI out in 15 minutes. My mistake in the previous trade was to open it just before New York open, a real newbie error if ever there was one!

I was looking at this but the entry was too close to S1, yesterdays low and MS2. Not a particularly strong channel either.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289915339

And a triangle developing on the Euro, will wait and see if this strengthens.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...g?t=1289915639

A short from 28 could be decent, daily pivot, upper tl, and price has been strongly rejected there already.

OK, trend line broken, will see where it closes and short accordingly.

Now short at 88... probably last trade of the day however it goes.

-13. OK, so -35 for the day, -17 for the week so far.

Was so close to shorting at 1.3582 on the break of a trend line, but I wasn't happy about it. Three losses in a row is time to call it a day. There is no point limiting my daily winnings and not limiting my daily losses.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1289922056

Kind of gutted I didn't take it. It was a beautiful set up and I would have made back my losses and then some, but I don't really have anything in my trading plan about limiting losses. So, time to address that and come back tomorrow.

OK, one last chance. There is a nice continuation pattern on A/U. Will look for a break down with S3 as a potential target.

Edit - missed the boat, drop happened too fast.

Today I took a bit of a beating but it wasn't a knock out blow by any means. I am using this opportunity to update my trading plan, as there are a couple of mistakes I seem to be repeating, or I wasn't even aware of.

Updates are going to be:

1) A refinement of trading times, in particular times to stay away from such as Wall Street open, S&P open etc, to be honest I was confused about when this actually was now we are back into GMT instead of BST. Right now the only mention of trading times is no trading 15 minutes either side of red and amber news, and no trading on NFP day. This caught me out on one trade today.

2) When to call it a day after consecutive losses. I currently stop trading if I get anywhere above 12 pips after a trade. I don't really have a limit like that for losses. I can't decided between two consecutive losses and three. I will set it at three at the moment.

3) A clear definition of a trend line, and a distinction between weak, good and strong set ups. This is just in my head currently and it now seems ridiculous that I haven't codified it clearly. I have plucked three recent examples to show. If I experience two consecutive losing trades, then the third must be either a strong set up, or a good set up with divergence and other signs that the trade will come good. If a trade occurs that doesn't fit into these categories, then they are not traded - simple.

4) Define simple things such as what time I get up in the morning, what time I aim to be at the desk etc. At the moment I am for 8am but I will aim for 7:30am now.

STRONG SET UP

The following conditions should be met:

- A clear chart pattern such as a triangle, wedge, flag, pennant or head and shoulders. If a trend line has been touched four times and a clear, unambiguous trend is in progress, then this will be included in absence of any of the above patterns.

- The trend line which breaks must have been touched three times. The touch has to be met with a clear pull back before touching again.

- Entry should be at least 7 pips from the nearest pivot point.

- If there is clear divergence, then the set up will be regarded as very strong.

Example:

Triangle, three distinct, clear touches of the breached trend line, 12 pips from pivot (open in this case). Entry is triggered on retrace.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1289927723

GOOD SET UP

- No distinct chart pattern, but a clear trend line that has been touched three times.

- Some sign of divergence on MACD, or a crossover, or weakening price action such as pin bars. Preferably a combination of all of these.

- Entry should be at least 7 pips from a pivot point.

Example:

No 'pattern', but a trend line that has been touched three times followed by a pull away indicating and established intra day trend, price action is visibly running out of steam by not making convincing new highs, divergence evident on MACD, entry is triggered on retrace.

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/l...f?t=1289928131

WEAK SET UPS

Note: These set ups aren't traded under any circumstances, they are simply included because I have traded them in the past. More often than not it is impatience which takes me into these sorts of trades.

- No pattern is evident, but a trend line has been touched twice, and the third touch breaks through. This is not really a trend line, it is just joining dots.

- Price action is in a direct rise or fall, a line can be drawn connecting the lows, but there are no waves. These rarely give a good counter trend entry.

- Trend lines or channels that are ambiguous, that is to say, they can be drawn in distinctly different ways.