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Phantom 6 System

  • #161
  • Nov 13, 2010 1:46pm Nov 13, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting charvo
Fundamentally, this agrees that cut a loss quick and short, and let the profit run. and it is also the fundamental idea of this EA. I think that your suggestion is very very worth a try.

This is a good idea. It's hard to say given a margin level because again hardcoding things will get you into trouble... it should be dynamic to evolve with the market.

We know that the phantom we chose is the best at decision time to trade. Now if we have better options at the next decision candle we should take that.

We don't want to be killed by the spread so we should keep the trade intact if its in the top half of the phantom winners.. and cut the loss and move on if it moved into the bottom half (winner becomes a loser). This way the basket is always rolling over to the best phantoms and discarding the bad (even if its in profit). This might give you the edge.


I also think this all depends on the heuristic we apply to decide the "score" of each phantom... I think we can all agree that simply choosing the highest PL doesn't necessarily mean this is the pair that has the highest chance to move for you in the future. This is an important point.

Jag
  • #162
  • Nov 14, 2010 7:25am Nov 14, 2010 7:25am
Can you change the PP(profit percentage) if the EA already has open trades without screwing up how the EA calculates it's next trade. The reason I ask is ( as mentioned in the Basket 14 thread) once you have several trades opened with DD and the market swings in your favor, it would be easier to take a higher PP when EA TP's. thank you
  • #163
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:39am Nov 14, 2010 8:39am
Quoting Toothman
Can you change the PP(profit percentage) if the EA already has open trades without screwing up how the EA calculates it's next trade. The reason I ask is ( as mentioned in the Basket 14 thread) once you have several trades opened with DD and the market swings in your favor, it would be easier to take a higher PP when EA TP's. thank you
Good observation!! That' s why I am not a bit fan of smallers PP. If yours baskets could reach a -2% DD very often, then they could reach a 1% PP very easy as well....I think we have to let our profit run al least 1%...just my opinion....
  • #164
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:52am Nov 14, 2010 8:52am
Quoting Toothman
Can you change the PP(profit percentage) if the EA already has open trades without screwing up how the EA calculates it's next trade. The reason I ask is ( as mentioned in the Basket 14 thread) once you have several trades opened with DD and the market swings in your favor, it would be easier to take a higher PP when EA TP's. thank you
Yes, you can change PP at any time. I have done it several times with open trades. But it does reset the phantoms, so it can affect how the next trade is calculated... we don't really know how big a deal that is. As I have said before, I haven't seen any big difference when the phantoms are reset, but it is difficult to measure that.
Frazer
  • #165
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:56am Nov 14, 2010 8:56am
Quoting Caillou
Good observation!! That' s why I am not a bit fan of smallers PP. If yours baskets could reach a -2% DD very often, then they could reach a 1% PP very easy as well....I think we have to let our profit run al least 1%...just my opinion....
That's why MC made PP a external variable.. everybody has their own opinion about when to take profit.
Frazer
  • #166
  • Nov 14, 2010 9:56am Nov 14, 2010 9:56am
Quoting frazerd
Yes, you can change PP at any time. I have done it several times with open trades. But it does reset the phantoms, so it can affect how the next trade is calculated... we don't really know how big a deal that is. As I have said before, I haven't seen any big difference when the phantoms are reset, but it is difficult to measure that.
Thanks for that frazerd. I'm thinking (and I know this has been discussed) setting a low PP initially will keep DD lower with more frequent TP's. But if you get into bigger DD with several trades open it would be better to boost the PP for two reasons. A swing in your favor would be easier to take a bigger % TP with several trades open. Also, setting PP higher with lots of trades open gives you more room for price to fluctuate as EA is closing down trades. A few tics against you (with a lower PP setting) with a lot of trades open could mean the difference between a profit or a loss by the time all trades are closed. Would be nice to be able to change settings without resetting the phantoms.
  • #167
  • Nov 14, 2010 12:29pm Nov 14, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting frazerd
Yes, you can change PP at any time. I have done it several times with open trades. But it does reset the phantoms, so it can affect how the next trade is calculated... we don't really know how big a deal that is. As I have said before, I haven't seen any big difference when the phantoms are reset, but it is difficult to measure that.

If phantoms are reset this changes everything... any new trades would be calculated based on that time.. you wouldn't have a good judgement of whats a good phantom or bad phantom anymore.
  • #168
  • Nov 14, 2010 3:24pm Nov 14, 2010 3:24pm
One account closed 6 times in basically a 24 hour time period. 3 times with only 1 trade. The other account is up 1.7% in the same time period.

However, both are now in the dreaded draw down phase.

Prosperous Regards !
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Phantom6 01X_1PIPFX.xls   21 KB | 314 downloads
File Type: xls Phantom6 01X_IBFX.xls   21 KB | 218 downloads
  • #169
  • Edited Nov 15, 2010 6:30pm Nov 14, 2010 7:30pm | Edited Nov 15, 2010 6:30pm
For those who want to keep the Phantoms "alive" (i.e. Not reset) after you either - Change a setting / Close then open the MT4 platform / Restart your computer...

1) ...move the SetSymbols(); function call from inside the start() function, into the first line of the init() function

2) ...remove the ResetPhantoms(); function call from inside the init() function

3) ...then you can add the following code in SetGlobalVariableNames()

Inserted Code
  strGBPUSDask = MagicNumber+"_"+GBPUSDsym;
  strUSDCHFask = MagicNumber+"_"+USDCHFsym;
  strEURJPYask = MagicNumber+"_"+EURJPYsym;
  
  strGBPCHFbid = MagicNumber+"_"+GBPCHFsym;
  strCHFJPYbid = MagicNumber+"_"+CHFJPYsym;
  strEURCHFbid = MagicNumber+"_"+EURCHFsym;

4) ...and then add the following code in InitGlobalVars()

Inserted Code
  if (!GlobalVariableCheck(strGBPUSDask)) GlobalVariableSet(strGBPUSDask, GBPUSDask);
  if (!GlobalVariableCheck(strUSDCHFask)) GlobalVariableSet(strUSDCHFask, USDCHFask);
  if (!GlobalVariableCheck(strEURJPYask)) GlobalVariableSet(strEURJPYask, EURJPYask);
  
  if (!GlobalVariableCheck(strGBPCHFbid)) GlobalVariableSet(strGBPCHFbid, GBPCHFbid);
  if (!GlobalVariableCheck(strCHFJPYbid)) GlobalVariableSet(strCHFJPYbid, CHFJPYbid);
  if (!GlobalVariableCheck(strEURCHFbid)) GlobalVariableSet(strEURCHFbid, EURCHFbid);

5) ...then you can add the following code to the ResetGlobalVars() function

Inserted Code
  GBPUSDask = GlobalVariableGet(strGBPUSDask);
  USDCHFask = GlobalVariableGet(strUSDCHFask);
  EURJPYask = GlobalVariableGet(strEURJPYask);
  
  GBPCHFbid = GlobalVariableGet(strGBPCHFbid);
  CHFJPYbid = GlobalVariableGet(strCHFJPYbid);
  EURCHFbid = GlobalVariableGet(strEURCHFbid);

MetaCoder had the rest of the code implemented, just didn't initialise the Global Variables for some reason.

EDIT: The Phantoms will of course reset as usual after closing all real trades for a profit
  • #170
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:36pm Nov 14, 2010 8:36pm
Quoting Toothman
Thanks for that frazerd. I'm thinking (and I know this has been discussed) setting a low PP initially will keep DD lower with more frequent TP's. But if you get into bigger DD with several trades open it would be better to boost the PP for two reasons. A swing in your favor would be easier to take a bigger % TP with several trades open. Also, setting PP higher with lots of trades open gives you more room for price to fluctuate as EA is closing down trades. A few tics against you (with a lower PP setting) with a lot of trades open could mean...
I agree with your thinking on using a higher PP and I have changed all of mine back to 0.5. I have decided that the lower PP is not very advantageous just because of the nature of these EAs. With the 0.25 PP I would sometimes get 2, or maybe 3 at the most, closes during a good move. But more often than not I would get only one. If the move is short lived you will not get a second close because it takes time for the EA to select and open another winning trade. It definitely will not happen before the top of the next hour and will usually take 2 or 3 hours to get enough winning trades to close again.

Back to the resetting of phantoms.. I assume everyone is aware that when the market closes on Friday and reopens on Sunday the phantoms reset when the broker servers start up again. I believe it has been mentioned before. And if there are winning phantoms of the traded pairs during that first minute, trades will be opened. That is not necessarily a bad thing.. you are getting a trade on the pair that is a winner at that moment, not something left from Friday. On the other hand, the phantoms have not had enough time to really sort out winners and losers. The only way to preclude those initial trades is to turn off the EAs Friday night and then turn them back on a couple of minutes after the market opens on Sunday.

I have not figured out, and I don't think anyone else has either, whether resetting phantoms is advantageous or not. I tend to think that it is a good thing, but maybe only needs to be done every time the EA closes (as it does anyway) and not every 8 hours. I have seen some opinions stated here that maybe 1 hour is not enough time for winners to emerge among the phantoms. But the fact is that it is quite possible that there will be trades in the first minute after a reset. Look at some of your statements and see how many times there was a trade as soon as the market opened. To prevent that there would have to be code added that does not allow trades during that first minute after a reset.

Sorry for the long post, but resetting of phantoms is an illusive problem.. difficult to determine if it is neccessary or advantageous. And how much time is needed for the true winners to be identified.
Frazer
  • #171
  • Nov 14, 2010 8:52pm Nov 14, 2010 8:52pm
Quoting sidhujag
If phantoms are reset this changes everything... any new trades would be calculated based on that time.. you wouldn't have a good judgement of whats a good phantom or bad phantom anymore.
Jag, it sounds like you have this phantom business all figured out. Maybe you could explain to me what is a good phantom and a bad phantom.
Frazer
  • #172
  • Nov 14, 2010 9:29pm Nov 14, 2010 9:29pm
Quoting frazerd
Jag, it sounds like you have this phantom business all figured out. Maybe you could explain to me what is a good phantom and a bad phantom.
According to your posts you've been working on this project for 2+ years yet you ask someone else what is a good "phantom trade" and what is not. If you've been working on it that long you should know better than anyone.

And it seems that you are no closer now to a working EA than you were way back when..... ? According to one of Einsteins's theories, that could be a problem. Your rebuttal is, of course, welcome.
  • #173
  • Edited 10:56pm Nov 14, 2010 10:41pm | Edited 10:56pm
Quoting frazerd
Jag, it sounds like you have this phantom business all figured out. Maybe you could explain to me what is a good phantom and a bad phantom.
Frazer,

Why would you go and say that? I'm just applying what I've learned and learning everyday to this strategy? I try to use fundamentals/technicals that others used to succeed. Remember you can't have a strategy that is the same that works for two people.. it really depends on your personality but you can follow the same principles.

What I meant to figure out a good and bad phantom was so you don't end up in DD and escape with some kind of profit as soon as you take live trades. I think by our combined testing if we start to average out quicker pops we can say that the fitness function we come up with to decide "good" or "bad" will be better off than when we started.

So what do you think happens when you reset the phantoms? Its like looking at that time and seeing... hey its going up lets buy it! But not considering the background which tells you everything. I know sometimes looking in the short term is better because you will get it right but I think in the long run averaging out of a number of trades this approach will likely lead to higher DD before reaching target or margin call.

What I proposed was a way to look at the background(when to reset phantoms) such that during trading time you will be taking your best guess at direction before actually jumping in... instead of trading at random. The best guess is what will give you an edge and may be the difference between 0 and 1.

By looking at sessions logically it makes sense that each session has a mind of its own and can do its own thing since the economies are different. Back in the day this would be evident but now its not so since we have more of a global economy.. but the underlying architecture should still be the same no? So why not use this in decision making?


What's your take? You are the one with the experience. What do I know I'm just a programmer? LOL

Maybe finding the "right" solution to resetting the phantoms is just a local optimum and we don't need to worry about it in the first place... in which case one of the first versions of this EA should be fine.. but testing will reveal.

I think we are probably wasting time unless we find a way to backtest.
  • #174
  • Nov 15, 2010 6:17am Nov 15, 2010 6:17am
So I'm assuming phantoms reset every time internet connection is interrupted also. I lose connection most days usually for only a few seconds. If we want the phantoms to work as originally intended by MC then shouldn't we be altering the code as "the-game" has suggested in post 169? Which leads me to this request. Would someone like to compile these changes after reviewing them to see if they work for sure. Don't trust myself with the changes. MC, do you think the frequent reset is a problem? thank you
  • #175
  • Nov 15, 2010 8:02am Nov 15, 2010 8:02am
So what do you think happens when you reset the phantoms? Its like looking at that time and seeing... hey its going up lets buy it! But not considering the background which tells you everything. I know sometimes looking in the short term is better because you will get it right but I think in the long run averaging out of a number of trades this approach will likely lead to higher DD before reaching target or margin call.

What I proposed was a way to look at the background(when to reset phantoms) such that during trading time you will be taking your best guess at direction before actually jumping in... instead of trading at random. The best guess is what will give you an edge and may be the difference between 0 and 1.

SIDHUJAG,
I agree with this line of thinking. I had posted in basket14 thread few days ago about doing a double check on pair before taking a trade. Something as simple as checking where the current price is compared to the 24 hr avg price (a 24 ema on hourly chart or what ever ).

Is it a perfect solution, heck no. But it does at least give you some background of where a pair is trending, at least over the last 24 hours.

On phantom start up or reset I get far too many trades that are taken against the current hourly trend and these are the pairs that are causing the biggest drawdown. I have never like to trade against the 1 or 4 hour trend so maybe my thinking is off I dont know.

But I do agree that taking a trade just off what a pair did in the last hour is kind of hit or miss, almost like flipping a coin. Now some times you get lucky and and get an equity pop after 1 or 2 trades but not often.
  • #176
  • Nov 15, 2010 11:11am Nov 15, 2010 11:11am
Quoting thorn
[b]So what do you think happens when you reset the phantoms? Its like looking at that time and seeing... hey its going up lets buy it! But not considering the background which tells you everything. I know sometimes looking in the short term is better because you will get it right but I think in the long run averaging out of a number of trades this approach will likely lead to higher DD before reaching target or margin call.

What I proposed was a way to look at the background(when to reset phantoms) such that during trading time you will be taking...
Like I said in my thread... I'm checking the trend by deciding the time to reset the phantoms and time to actually take trades. 24 hours doesn't tell you anything unless you look for S/R. You have to look at each economy.
  • #177
  • Nov 15, 2010 6:31pm Nov 15, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting the-game
For those who want to keep the Phantoms "alive" (i.e. Not reset) after you either - Change a setting / Close then open the MT4 platform / Restart your computer...

1) ...move the SetSymbols(); function call from inside the start() function, into the first line of the init() function
I've updated the quoted post and added two new points, namely 2) & 5)
  • #178
  • Nov 15, 2010 10:35pm Nov 15, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting sidhujag
Why would you go and say that? I'm just applying what I've learned and learning everyday to this strategy? I try to use fundamentals/technicals that others used to succeed. Remember you can't have a strategy that is the same that works for two people.. it really depends on your personality but you can follow the same principles.
Jag, I have been out of the net all day and have just read your post. My question was not intended to be derogatory. It is a serious question. I think you have partially answered it in the remainder of your post, but I'm still not clear on what a good or bad phantom is.

I have some experience with these EAs, but I am undecided on what is the best timing for resetting the the phantoms or if it needs to be done at all. As I have stated previously I have not detected any big affect from resetting. I am not a programmer, so I may not understand the workings as well as you, but I have been working with these EAs for a while and I think I have a pretty good understanding just from watching how they function.

The phantoms update with every tick of the chart they are attached to and then at the designated minute the EA adds trades of the pairs that are winner(s) at that minute, if they meet the other criteria. If the phantoms have just been reset, the data is fresh and that is sometimes better than old phantom trades that have been big winners and have since reversed and the new trades are all losers. On the other hand, a phantom winner that has just been reset and is only up by 30 cents may also well be a loser after the next tick. So I think there should be a wait time between resetting phantoms and adding the first real trades. How long that needs to be is the question. I tend to think it can be as little as 30 minutes. After all we are trading a basket of hedged pairs and the biggest winner is going to change pretty frequently in a choppy market. That is what gets us into the big draw downs. I am certainly not convinced that they need to be reset every 8 hours.

Having said all that, I do think that trading only certain market hours could be advantageous, starting the EA at the opening and not taking the first trade until 30 min after market opening. And if you can come up with some kind of technical and fundamental analysis that will keep us from taking as many bad trades, I am all for that. But that is a difficult task. Often the trades that get us into profit were big losers before they became winners, again because of the hedge and a choppy market.

So, long story short, I do not have a solution for the resetting debate.
Frazer
  • #179
  • Nov 15, 2010 10:44pm Nov 15, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting TradeRunner
And it seems that you are no closer now to a working EA than you were way back when..... ?
Your remarks are not worth dignifying with a response other than to say that the comment above is a direct slam at MetaCoder more than at me. And if that is your opinion of his EAs you need to move on to some other thread or start one of your own, since you are smarter than the rest of us.
Frazer
  • #180
  • Nov 15, 2010 11:59pm Nov 15, 2010 11:59pm
Quoting frazerd
Jag, I have been out of the net all day and have just read your post. My question was not intended to be derogatory. It is a serious question. I think you have partially answered it in the remainder of your post, but I'm still not clear on what a good or bad phantom is.

I have some experience with these EAs, but I am undecided on what is the best timing for resetting the the phantoms or if it needs to be done at all. As I have stated previously I have not detected any big affect from resetting. I am not a programmer, so I may not understand...

Hi Frazer,

Sorry for taking it the wrong way Anyways yes the market is always random but don't tell that to some who have seemed to figure it out lol!

So if the market truely is random then resetting shouldn't matter and you are right about having the hedge to get us out. I'm trying to hope that it isn't and each session opens its own can of worms which are different shapes and sizes... so I'd rather trade session by session base. Anyways testing will tell what works and what doesn't.

In any trend range detection you always have to look at background ( I follow the VSA thread closely aswell and Malcolm always talks about it). I'm trying to apply "background" to our phantoms before taking trades. By choosing times that support my fundamental view of how the market works then I can be confident in myself that I did the best I could to make profit with this strategy.

In the end everyone has a different personality like I said before and each person will have their own tweaks for the strategy to work. You just have to be confident... and know that when the strategy gets away from your view of how things should work you know to get in there try to get out manually if you have to. But aslong as it brings in pips and follows the way you think it should work thats all that matters. There is no right and wrong in a market full of noise there's always a way to collect the cookie crumbs.. you just have to find a way to do it regularly.

If all works well maybe one day you will be the one eating the cookies and leaving the crumbs lol

Jag
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