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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #9,141
  • Nov 10, 2010 4:26pm Nov 10, 2010 4:26pm
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  • #9,142
  • Nov 10, 2010 4:44pm Nov 10, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting redsword11
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  • #9,143
  • Nov 10, 2010 5:28pm Nov 10, 2010 5:28pm
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  • #9,144
  • Nov 10, 2010 6:51pm Nov 10, 2010 6:51pm
Quoting tritan
Hi NM, just a quick question as i'm still reading through all the thread in detail. Are the SMAs you use still to 30, 50 & 100?

Thanks
HI Tritan,
Yes they are I still use the same 30,50 and 100. I really only use them to gauge the trend I do not really use them for entry.

--NM
  • #9,145
  • Nov 10, 2010 7:46pm Nov 10, 2010 7:46pm
I took a loss on CHF/JPY 4H trend collapse trade. Entered when I saw a inverted hammer. Just curious if I did something wrong or it is just one of those days?

Does it look like a trend continuation trade and I just didn;t see it?
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  • #9,146
  • Nov 10, 2010 9:16pm Nov 10, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting hytten
I took a loss on CHF/JPY 4H trend collapse trade. Entered when I saw a inverted hammer. Just curious if I did something wrong or it is just one of those days?

Does it look like a trend continuation trade and I just didn;t see it?
Hytten,
To me that pair is not really a pair I would be looking at right now, looking at the daily chart its kind of a mess, it could go any direction. The 4 hour chart looks better but stll not really biased the way I would like to see it.

It is getting close to some resistance on the daily and could turn into a decent setup but right now at least for me I think I would pass on that pair until it gets better organized.

--NM
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  • #9,147
  • Nov 10, 2010 9:43pm Nov 10, 2010 9:43pm
Quoting NightMoves
Hytten,
To me that pair is not really a pair I would be looking at right now, looking at the daily chart its kind of a mess, it could go any direction. The 4 hour chart looks better but stll not really biased the way I would like to see it.

It is getting close to some resistance on the daily and could turn into a decent setup but right now at least for me I think I would pass on that pair until it gets better organized.

--NM
Thanks NM.
  • #9,148
  • Nov 10, 2010 9:53pm Nov 10, 2010 9:53pm
Here is the EURCAD in 3 different time frames, H4, H1, 30 min.

Looking at the 3 SMA lines it shows this pair is for the moment in a pretty healthy trend. The black line on the H4 chart is the daily up trend line on the daily chart, where it could take a bounce and start heading back up again.

--NM
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  • #9,149
  • Nov 11, 2010 2:19am Nov 11, 2010 2:19am
NightMoves Hi, I am watching Eur/Cad too. coincidence.
I have never traded this pair.

There is strong support around 1.3690 on daily with price reacting at least twice to this level. it is pretty clear cut support so, all profits if in trade better betaken before it around 1.3700
  • #9,150
  • Nov 11, 2010 2:25am Nov 11, 2010 2:25am
lost a couple trades yesterday, but long E/U and G/U . stops are at BE already with 100+ pips locked.
Gbp/Jpy made mistake. if it gives set up on weekly only, trigger must be on daily.

Custos, I think you are right regarding partial profits. I decided not to take them, but use instead DanUK trailing method for full position. It is not from his advanced method but from his 2009-2010 trading journal. I think he started complicating things with this candle formations. obviously harmer/ shooting star are good signals but his previous method of entries and trailing stops is really very sensible, simple and good.
  • #9,151
  • Nov 11, 2010 2:59am Nov 11, 2010 2:59am
Now, things starts looking interesting with Usd/Jpy.

anybody watching?

Now, Xaron from Oanda forum has been talking about building long position for Usd/jpy for quite some time with goal of this pair reaching 100.00.

It looks like if those horizontal levels and TL get broken and serve as support it might be a reasonable target and excellent trend.
What people think?
It might be also turning up trend on 4H already.
Let's see.

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  • #9,152
  • Nov 11, 2010 3:14am Nov 11, 2010 3:14am
E/U might get stopped at BE. my stop is at 1.3698. I set it 2 pips below RN to be sure it might survive , it happens sometimes, but... not sure. the pair might be turning to downside. It doe snot matter to me as long as it starts trending again.
  • #9,153
  • Nov 11, 2010 3:21am Nov 11, 2010 3:21am
Quoting shiko
Custos, I think you are right regarding partial profits. I decided not to take them, but use instead DanUK trailing method for full position. It is not from his advanced method but from his 2009-2010 trading journal. I think he started complicating things with this candle formations. obviously harmer/ shooting star are good signals but his previous method of entries and trailing stops is really very sensible, simple and good.
Not sure which trailing stop you mean.

He first used a 100 pip trailing stop, which is by far too small to capture large 1000 pip runners.
Then he trailed his positions behind the weekly trendline, which requires a stop of 200 to 400 pips, that would require you to drop your trade size significantly.

I think his current method of using candle formations is by far the best. You still can enter with good trade size and you trail your stop behind weekly S/R levels.

Just my opinion, but maybe you mean another trailing stop which I am not aware of.
  • #9,154
  • Nov 11, 2010 3:27am Nov 11, 2010 3:27am
Quoting shiko
Now, things starts looking interesting with Usd/Jpy.

anybody watching?

Now, Xaron from Oanda forum has been talking about building long position for Usd/jpy for quite some time with goal of this pair reaching 100.00.

It looks like if those horizontal levels and TL get broken and serve as support it might be a reasonable target and excellent trend.
What people think?
It might be also turning up trend on 4H already.
Let's see.

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haha, why you always try to pick bottoms and tops? Trend is down since early 2007, that's almost 3 years of downtrend.
Why not just trying to participate in the downtrend instead of calling a change in the downtrend and the beginning of an uptrend?
Of course, it might be a start of an uptrend, but it probably will just continue down.
  • #9,155
  • Nov 11, 2010 4:24am Nov 11, 2010 4:24am
Quoting Custos
Not sure which trailing stop you mean.

He first used a 100 pip trailing stop, which is by far too small to capture large 1000 pip runners.
Then he trailed his positions behind the weekly trendline, which requires a stop of 200 to 400 pips, that would require you to drop your trade size significantly.

I think his current method of using candle formations is by far the best. You still can enter with good trade size and you trail your stop behind weekly S/R levels.

Just my opinion, but maybe you mean another trailing stop which I am not aware of....

I mean his original. when he trailed by setting stops at RN. 100 pips behind.
I think people are too concerned with 1000 pips trades. as long as our wins are bigger and hit rate is good, why to care. especially when trade size must be cut and pip's worth is much smaller.
He was doing very well with those trailing stops making up to 2000 net pips monthly by the way with excellent hit rate.
obviously when I have candle formation it is good, but overall his original entry method is also very good. both can be used and NightMoves/ Hector's method too.
  • #9,156
  • Nov 11, 2010 4:27am Nov 11, 2010 4:27am
USD/Chf btw, ended as BE trade. but my short Eur/Chf is still very much alive. i did not take any profit, but will move stop from BE to some profit after it reaches 1.3200.
I cannot believe that I am letting tardes run after all. G/U was 150 pips yesterday and E/U 120 and I did not take them and no partial closes. I think it will play in the long run. when these pairs start trending agan,.... btw, G/U looks like trending. unlike E/U
  • #9,157
  • Nov 11, 2010 4:34am Nov 11, 2010 4:34am
Quoting Custos
haha, why you always try to pick bottoms and tops? Trend is down since early 2007, that's almost 3 years of downtrend.
Why not just trying to participate in the downtrend instead of calling a change in the downtrend and the beginning of an uptrend?
Of course, it might be a start of an uptrend, but it probably will just continue down.

I am not calling anything...
But trend could change? Have I taken long position? No, so why you say I am calling tops and bottoms? I do not trade tops and bottoms but if price will show you at those levels that they are broken and serve as support, it would be stupid not to see that trend might be turning.
I actually do not like this pair. too slow for my taste.
  • #9,158
  • Nov 11, 2010 4:40am Nov 11, 2010 4:40am
I am short Eur/Cad at 1.3770. stop 40 pips at 1.3810. TP at 1.3705. R;R is 1.5. it is moving down nicely on daily but that support below, it can give some nasty price action.
  • #9,159
  • Nov 11, 2010 4:43am Nov 11, 2010 4:43am
E/U and E/C looks like intra day twin brothers now. I took eur/cad on another account where I am not long E/U. I am not that experienced in this but these 2 pairs look like too closely related to trade both of them on same account.
  • #9,160
  • Nov 11, 2010 4:48am Nov 11, 2010 4:48am
Quoting shiko
I am not calling anything...
But trend could change? Have I taken long position? No, so why you say I am calling tops and bottoms? I do not trade tops and bottoms but if price will show you at those levels that they are broken and serve as support, it would be stupid not to see that trend might be turning.
I actually do not like this pair. too slow for my taste.
It's just, if I look at the weekly chart, then price would at least have to go above 88.00, to make me think that the trend could be changing. The trend is just so strong and already such a long time on its way, that even the daily chart is not significant enough.

It could retrace the next couple of weeks, but a real trend change on that pair needs more than taking out such a small S/R level. Everything needs to be put in perspective.

Just my opinion.
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