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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,601
  • Nov 6, 2010 9:52am Nov 6, 2010 9:52am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Marc,

Good point! I used net positions instead of COT index that you used. They are lightening their longs as you mentioned.It usually will follow by a decline in price which in this case not happened yet.IMO, the market is well overbought, classic Div and extended parabolic move, all indicating that a top is near but which level and when is anyone's guess.
Sounds good. Thanks for the pretty chart!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,602
  • Edited 11:17am Nov 6, 2010 11:05am | Edited 11:17am
Check this out..a similar viewpoint to MarcVUM

Chart 1 shows the COT report for AU. You can clearly see the large speculators offloading and where we are now shows they've dropped from 69k to 51k open interest.

Chart 2 shows daily AU. Look at how price is going higher...not by the large speculators though. They are offloading to the smaller traders. I've also marked in chart 2 where the previous high/lows were and it's very interesting to see how they synch up with chart 1 (the COT chart).

I know I'll certainly be looking for a short position soon.

Cheers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,603
  • Nov 6, 2010 12:27pm Nov 6, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting Jenks_fx
Check this out..a similar viewpoint to MarcVUM

Chart 1 shows the COT report for AU. You can clearly see the large speculators offloading and where we are now shows they've dropped from 69k to 51k open interest.

Chart 2 shows daily AU. Look at how price is going higher...not by the large speculators though. They are offloading to the smaller traders. I've also marked in chart 2 where the previous high/lows were and it's very interesting to see how they synch up with chart 1 (the COT chart).

I know I'll certainly be looking for a short position...
Hi there,

On your 2nd chart, you've got a pivot level (looks like a monthly pivot).Would you mind sharing it here if it's MT4 indicator? thanks!
  • #4,604
  • Nov 6, 2010 1:36pm Nov 6, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there,

On your 2nd chart, you've got a pivot level (looks like a monthly pivot).Would you mind sharing it here if it's MT4 indicator? thanks!
yeah mate. see here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=473
  • #4,605
  • Nov 6, 2010 1:42pm Nov 6, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting Jenks_fx
Check this out..a similar viewpoint to MarcVUM

Chart 1 shows the COT report for AU. You can clearly see the large speculators offloading and where we are now shows they've dropped from 69k to 51k open interest.

Chart 2 shows daily AU. Look at how price is going higher...not by the large speculators though. They are offloading to the smaller traders. I've also marked in chart 2 where the previous high/lows were and it's very interesting to see how they synch up with chart 1 (the COT chart).

I know I'll certainly be looking for a short position...
Likewise. I'll be looking at the H4 and Daily TF's for the right candle. If you don't mind send me a PM if you find something good...I'll do the same.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,606
  • Nov 6, 2010 1:56pm Nov 6, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Likewise. I'll be looking at the H4 and Daily TF's for the right candle. If you don't mind send me a PM if you find something good...I'll do the same.
you have a pm.
  • #4,607
  • Nov 6, 2010 2:13pm Nov 6, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting Jenks_fx
you have a pm.
You too.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,608
  • Nov 7, 2010 2:35am Nov 7, 2010 2:35am
IN USDCHF charts :


1.price touch the median line of pitchfork

2.correction to 78.6 fibonacci

3.make a hd+ with macd and rsi
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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show me the money
  • #4,609
  • Nov 7, 2010 2:45am Nov 7, 2010 2:45am
price make bat pattern on median line of pitchfork
maybe 2orb is finished
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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show me the money
  • #4,610
  • Nov 7, 2010 2:56am Nov 7, 2010 2:56am
in USDJPY on weekly time Wolf wave is complete i think USDJPY can grow up
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show me the money
  • #4,611
  • Nov 7, 2010 7:50am Nov 7, 2010 7:50am
E/U COT analysis & market cycles
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  • #4,612
  • Nov 7, 2010 7:53am Nov 7, 2010 7:53am
Quoting majid.hesari
price make bat pattern on median line of pitchfork
maybe 2orb is finished
Nice chart
  • #4,613
  • Nov 7, 2010 8:15am Nov 7, 2010 8:15am
I was looking around saw this EURCHF chart at My friend's thread "TLC", missed the fib 23 as it was on weekly chart and I was looking at smaller TF.
Anyways, I think there is a possibility of an inverted H & Sh on this pair, watch out around 1.3.The other scenario might be forming a new low.
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  • #4,614
  • Nov 7, 2010 5:42pm Nov 7, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Marc,

Good point! I used net positions instead of COT index that you used. They are lightening their longs as you mentioned.It usually will follow by a decline in price which in this case not happened yet.IMO, the market is well overbought, classic Div and extended parabolic move, all indicating that a top is near but which level and when is anyone's guess.
This could be it: AU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,615
  • Nov 7, 2010 8:32pm Nov 7, 2010 8:32pm
Quoting shahab8b
Well done!

Here is what I think: 1.4225-75 shoud cap the current move/ for longer term I've got two counts as follows
...
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  • #4,616
  • Nov 7, 2010 8:44pm Nov 7, 2010 8:44pm
Kiwi, double top in 1 hr chart, it seems a short term top is in place.
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  • #4,617
  • Nov 8, 2010 4:24pm Nov 8, 2010 4:24pm
might be of interest to some - a rather long winded video - in three parts - explaining the in and outs of the COT reports.
http://www.learningmarkets.com/Forex...-part-one.html

Enjoy
  • #4,618
  • Nov 9, 2010 5:55am Nov 9, 2010 5:55am
gold make crab in 1430.30
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show me the money
  • #4,619
  • Nov 9, 2010 6:03am Nov 9, 2010 6:03am
good postion in eurjpy price touch median line of pitchfork in support zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy h4.gif Size: 45 KB
show me the money
  • #4,620
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:25am Nov 10, 2010 2:25am
negative divergence in crab PRZ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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show me the money
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