Just to clarify....... until somebody convinces me otherwise, I don't think it's possible to forecast price movement with 100% certainty, whether using TA, FA or anything else. There are simply too many variables, and moreover, anything (think 'black swan') can potentially occur at any time.
However, I concede that that's somewhat different to saying that it's impossible to attain a 99%+ win rate. There are plenty of Martingale or otherwise MM-skewed systems that will achieve that. I also suspect that it's possible to get close to 100% by being extremely selective with entries, but of course that means trading less frequently, which (everything else being equal) lowers ROE over time. I know a trader who uses a fibo-based breakout system that he claims delivers close to 100%, but I've seen him have to endure drawdowns of several hundred pips before price finally makes it to his profit target. And I'm aware of at least one arbitrage opportunity (I too have been sworn to secrecy, so please don't ask) but it defies anything that might reasonably be labeled a 'trading system', and the exploitable 'loophole' could close at any time.
I recall reading somewhere that Paul Tudor Jones had said that it's been very rare that he finds a retail trader who, given enough time, is capable of maintaining a profit factor of 2. To put that in perspective, one way of achieving it is a 67% win rate at 1:1 RR. That might not seem like a holy grail, but it would certainly represent a massive edge (for example, at 2 trades per day, and 2% fixed frac risk per trade, it would equate to something like 2,600% ROE p.a.).
However, I concede that that's somewhat different to saying that it's impossible to attain a 99%+ win rate. There are plenty of Martingale or otherwise MM-skewed systems that will achieve that. I also suspect that it's possible to get close to 100% by being extremely selective with entries, but of course that means trading less frequently, which (everything else being equal) lowers ROE over time. I know a trader who uses a fibo-based breakout system that he claims delivers close to 100%, but I've seen him have to endure drawdowns of several hundred pips before price finally makes it to his profit target. And I'm aware of at least one arbitrage opportunity (I too have been sworn to secrecy, so please don't ask) but it defies anything that might reasonably be labeled a 'trading system', and the exploitable 'loophole' could close at any time.
I recall reading somewhere that Paul Tudor Jones had said that it's been very rare that he finds a retail trader who, given enough time, is capable of maintaining a profit factor of 2. To put that in perspective, one way of achieving it is a 67% win rate at 1:1 RR. That might not seem like a holy grail, but it would certainly represent a massive edge (for example, at 2 trades per day, and 2% fixed frac risk per trade, it would equate to something like 2,600% ROE p.a.).
. Never is. Funny how that works.
