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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,581
  • Nov 1, 2010 7:42am Nov 1, 2010 7:42am
Quoting shahab8b
wow, they just did!!
I had no idea you were so well connected, Shahab.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,582
  • Nov 1, 2010 8:46am Nov 1, 2010 8:46am
Quoting shahab8b
I've been noticing this type of diagonal failure more and more (has not happened here yet). I looked for it to see if anyone explained it somewhere, haven't found it yet. According to text books it should reverse after 5th wave or UTL touch but it seems the pattern dynamic is changing.
Lets see if this one follows the failure type.
This one has turned to be a valid and well-behaved ending diagonal/rising wedge.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,583
  • Nov 1, 2010 8:48am Nov 1, 2010 8:48am
Quoting Dhb
I had no idea you were so well connected, Shahab.
Neither did I !
  • #4,584
  • Nov 1, 2010 8:55am Nov 1, 2010 8:55am
Quoting shahab8b
I've been noticing this type of diagonal failure more and more (has not happened here yet). I looked for it to see if anyone explained it somewhere, haven't found it yet. According to text books it should reverse after 5th wave or UTL touch but it seems the pattern dynamic is changing.
Lets see if this one follows the failure type.

This is what I pointed out earlier, wedge failure. I think the probability of failure is more than success ,at least that's what I've recently noticed.
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  • #4,585
  • Nov 2, 2010 2:01am Nov 2, 2010 2:01am
  •  aghast
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
E/U as expected
hi shahab,

do you think that this scenario is possible? the upward channel held twice now.
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Fortune always favors the brave.
  • #4,586
  • Nov 2, 2010 6:28am Nov 2, 2010 6:28am
Quoting aghast
hi shahab,

do you think that this scenario is possible? the upward channel held twice now.

Great call !, well done
  • #4,587
  • Nov 3, 2010 12:36am Nov 3, 2010 12:36am
Good position in the Euro Dollar Sales
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show me the money
  • #4,588
  • Nov 3, 2010 2:39pm Nov 3, 2010 2:39pm
  •  aghast
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Great call !, well done
it went much higher than i've anticipated. can you share your view on the e/u pair? greets
Fortune always favors the brave.
  • #4,589
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:17pm Nov 3, 2010 3:17pm
E/U
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  • #4,590
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:32pm Nov 3, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting aghast
it went much higher than i've anticipated. can you share your view on the e/u pair? greets

Well done!

Here is what I think: 1.4225-75 shoud cap the current move/ for longer term I've got two counts as follows
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  • #4,591
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:49pm Nov 3, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting shahab8b
I've been noticing this type of diagonal failure more and more (has not happened here yet). I looked for it to see if anyone explained it somewhere, haven't found it yet. According to text books it should reverse after 5th wave or UTL touch but it seems the pattern dynamic is changing.
Lets see if this one follows the failure type.
Kiwi: it's an example of wedge failure what I talked about the other day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,592
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:57pm Nov 3, 2010 3:57pm
Hey Shahab, didi your gold long survive today's spike?

Here's hoping so.

My personal prayers are that what few positions I have make it through NFP.

If that happens I'll be in the clear. What a week.
  • #4,593
  • Nov 3, 2010 4:00pm Nov 3, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting Low
Hey Shahab, didi your gold long survive today's spike?

Here's hoping so.

My personal prayers are that what few positions I have make it through NFP.

If that happens I'll be in the clear. What a week.
Hi low,

No, I stopped out at B/E, wild move today, however it was expected.If you are looking for a trade, kiwi short seems good for 30-40 pips. I think E/U will be good to short around 1.4225-75
  • #4,594
  • Nov 3, 2010 4:16pm Nov 3, 2010 4:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi low,

No, I stopped out at B/E, wild move today, however it was expected.If you are looking for a trade, kiwi short seems good for 30-40 pips. I think E/U will be good to short around 1.4225-75
Your EU numbers line up with mine for the next stop 1.42->1.43 area, but I won't be shorting for a bit. Looking at that massive UTL from the last two highs on the weekly, we could even see as much as 1.4550 before the euro-bears get really interested.

I bought around 1.3880, so I'm gonna sit tight and see what she gives me.
  • #4,595
  • Edited 2:03pm Nov 5, 2010 1:58pm | Edited 2:03pm
Hi everyone, I'm new here.

Mr Shahab i would like to know your view on Gold. U said to go short before 1400. But we made new highs and gone up despite good employment news. Maybe next target is around 1450?

http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/3343/goldchart.jpg

have a nice weekend for all
  • #4,596
  • Nov 5, 2010 2:17pm Nov 5, 2010 2:17pm
Head and shoulders on eg and ej?
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  • #4,597
  • Nov 5, 2010 5:31pm Nov 5, 2010 5:31pm
Shahab, what do you make of the latest A/U COT chart? Looks as though the large investors are taking profits...heads up?
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #4,598
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:31am Nov 6, 2010 6:31am
Quoting Arab
Hi everyone, I'm new here.

Mr Shahab i would like to know your view on Gold. U said to go short before 1400. But we made new highs and gone up despite good employment news. Maybe next target is around 1450?



have a nice weekend for all
Hi there,

I wrote "long gold for now" and I did too but I stopped out at b/e during fomc.I have not switch to short yet but at this level gold is a sell, reason is the classic div and extended move. UTL is around 1425.I will give gold a short during next week.
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  • #4,599
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:41am Nov 6, 2010 6:41am
Quoting MarcVUM
Shahab, what do you make of the latest A/U COT chart? Looks as though the large investors are taking profits...heads up?
Hi Marc,

Good point! I used net positions instead of COT index that you used. They are lightening their longs as you mentioned.It usually will follow by a decline in price which in this case not happened yet.IMO, the market is well overbought, classic Div and extended parabolic move, all indicating that a top is near but which level and when is anyone's guess.
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  • #4,600
  • Nov 6, 2010 7:00am Nov 6, 2010 7:00am
Quoting saunga2nd3
Head and shoulders on eg and ej?
E/J weekly chart seems like a 2B bullish pattern or a bullish Crown pattern,either way it seems bullish to me long-term
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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