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AUD/USD

  • #24,941
  • Nov 4, 2010 11:40am Nov 4, 2010 11:40am
Grinding just under 0.0150 with a break towards 1.0200 likely.

AUD/USD M5 (01/11-05/11)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud3.png Size: 180 KB
  • #24,942
  • Nov 4, 2010 12:26pm Nov 4, 2010 12:26pm
I will short at 1.0170...

TP: 1.0100
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #24,943
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:05pm Nov 4, 2010 3:05pm
As much as I would love to short this thing I dont think anyone really knows how much higher it can still climb. I wouldnt even know where to place a proper SL or TP....this thing has been insane in the last 24 hrs! Its best to stay out.
Former Trader Of the Year of the 95% losing club! Retired
  • #24,944
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:19pm Nov 4, 2010 3:19pm
Quoting Mike Haran
Shorted at 127% of last swing

5 waves and my thoughts are down.

Good luck


Mike Haran
I've seen many people quit Forex because can't get the simple idea of going with the trend.

now tell me what needs to happen to just see 0.97 again 450 pips away just to get to break even.

So if you see 1.1 - 1.2 ? nothing impossible in Forex.

well everybody has to learn their lesson.

No prediction. Go with the big money. then don't use prediction.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #24,945
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:49pm Nov 4, 2010 3:49pm
DMA Trader, would love to quote you (new member cant!) but you are right.. 6 months of practice in following the 'big money' has lead me to a 22% increase in my first week of a live account.

I am still long, as thats the overall trend (another 40 pips in the last 8 hrs!) Its been a free ride for me since 0.9939 so I am happy.

205+ pips in my first week live trading.. I will stay long until it starts to break the 34 EMA (low) again (h1 chart)

But yes, its getting scary and my mind says I should be shorting, but the numbers are still trending up, so i just go with the flow.
  • #24,946
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:07pm Nov 4, 2010 5:07pm
Did anyone see the AUD/USD bounce off the R2 Resistance line so neatly on the 1hr chart.

Any comments?
  • #24,947
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:25pm Nov 4, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting triptizine
DMA Trader, would love to quote you (new member cant!) but you are right.. 6 months of practice in following the 'big money' has lead me to a 22% increase in my first week of a live account.

I am still long, as thats the overall trend (another 40 pips in the last 8 hrs!) Its been a free ride for me since 0.9939 so I am happy.

205+ pips in my first week live trading.. I will stay long until it starts to break the 34 EMA (low) again (h1 chart)

But yes, its getting scary and my mind says I should be shorting, but the numbers are still...
hey buddy. don't worry
take profits reduce risk when you are getting scared.

but you are already doing better then most of the traders so keep it up.

Also as you can see a lot of people calling manipulation here. manipulation there. Everybody knows FED devaluing dollar. so instead of trying to get a part of it it's really easy. people just want to fight the FED, BB, the tape. what ever.

So just stick to what is working. move your stops with the pair. Never go against the money.

Just a hint to see how strong and easy this trend is.

from 16 august. you don't have one weekly close below last week candles low. not even one weekly close below 5SMA. think how strong this uptrend is. doesn't get any better than that.

So will it ever go down ?

OF COURSE. but you don't need to predict, don't need to be the first who jumps in. let other do the hard work. you go with the trend. that's your best friend. and don't forget another very good friend. STOP LOSS. so when your best friend break's up with you (trend) you can relay on your stop.

simple as that. no need for intergalactic stars pluto trading.

just follow the PRICE. that's it.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #24,948
  • Nov 4, 2010 5:56pm Nov 4, 2010 5:56pm
Look everyone i am new to trading foreign currencies but does anyone believe that this one way trade (sell dollar/ buy eur/ or whatever currency against the dollar will last for months? I just do not think in my heart of hearts this will last. It is too good to be true.

Is there anyway to find out how many people are selling the dollar and buying the euro???
  • #24,949
  • Nov 4, 2010 6:29pm Nov 4, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting DMA Trader
I've seen many people quit Forex because can't get the simple idea of going with the trend.

now tell me what needs to happen to just see 0.97 again 450 pips away just to get to break even.

So if you see 1.1 - 1.2 ? nothing impossible in Forex.

well everybody has to learn their lesson.

No prediction. Go with the big money. then don't use prediction.
Great advice DMA Trader. Rookie traders should print your post out and tape it to their monitors.
  • #24,950
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:05pm Nov 4, 2010 7:05pm
RBA comments out in about 30 mins.. Stevens may try and jawbone the currency lower.
We know its going to go higher overall however my bet is he will skew some words in there to confuse and take the sting out of it in order to stop the one way traffic.
  • #24,951
  • Nov 4, 2010 7:07pm Nov 4, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting lasty
RBA comments out in about 30 mins.. Stevens may try and jawbone the currency lower.
We know its going to go higher overall however my bet is he will skew some words in there to confuse and take the sting out of it in order to stop the one way traffic.

I would have to think he would try to talk down the aussie given last nights trade balance. They are losing exports rapidly........
  • #24,952
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:53pm Nov 4, 2010 8:53pm
Based on the steep climb over the past few days coupled by the fact its Friday, I'm thinking it'll be down trend for today in name of a retrace, profit taking etc especially before the weekend closed especially during market closing hours of various countries. Can anyone give advise on that? Or should we just stick with the up trend all the way?
  • #24,953
  • Nov 4, 2010 11:30pm Nov 4, 2010 11:30pm
One thing to look out for is when Bone Head Bernanke speaks later on as the market tends to get a little bit choppy.

GP
"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"
  • #24,954
  • Edited 3:00am Nov 5, 2010 2:23am | Edited 3:00am
London is liking the Aussie and kiwi.. thankfully got out of my shorts for a small profit! Think ill be wait for a trend to form before shorting again, hardly got any sleep last night! still early days..
  • #24,955
  • Nov 5, 2010 3:19am Nov 5, 2010 3:19am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting denewbie
Based on the steep climb over the past few days coupled by the fact its Friday, I'm thinking it'll be down trend for today in name of a retrace, profit taking etc especially before the weekend closed especially during market closing hours of various countries. Can anyone give advise on that? Or should we just stick with the up trend all the way?
Just look at what happened to everyone who called shorts in the last month.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #24,956
  • Nov 5, 2010 3:24am Nov 5, 2010 3:24am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting mfoste1
I would have to think he would try to talk down the aussie given last nights trade balance. They are losing exports rapidly........
Its good to see someone else knows what a high Aussie $$ will do to our economy.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #24,957
  • Nov 5, 2010 4:12am Nov 5, 2010 4:12am
I agree with you totally, contratrend trading is not clever and you don't need to predict tops. If you try to then you have to know that you are using proper money management and correct stops positions.

One thing that should be made clear is that there is no harm in using analysis to predict potential reversal points, so that you as a trader can be prepared in advance for a reversal if it occurs.

Using any form of analysis to tell you the position of the market is a good idea. The fact that it blew the 127% level tells me that this is a strong move. I still think we are in the zone for a reversal and the 8th or the 9th are two days that I will be watching the market closely.

In the big scheme of things the audusd has been higher 1.98980 (1.3.1981) so there is potential for a much stronger move up. You don't need to predict the market, you have to just react to it.

What would be of interest to me and many traders is to understand what factors triggered the reversals at the tops and bottoms, why did everyone suddenly decided that they should sell the aussie and buy the dollar?

A mass change in sentiment across the globe in a day, I think if you can understand the cause you can look for it to repeat. No one knew how Gann traded, but he was a master speculator, having studied all his trades and worked out what he was doing it seems strange that a lot of it just happens to corrolate with planet positions. I think an open mind is a good thing to have as a trader no matter how strange it might seem.


Mike Haran
  • #24,958
  • Nov 5, 2010 4:35am Nov 5, 2010 4:35am
"It's a wise man who rules the stars, a fool who is ruled by them"

Darryl Martinie

Good advice from the late Cosmic Muffin.
  • #24,959
  • Nov 5, 2010 5:38am Nov 5, 2010 5:38am
Quoting damo
Just look at what happened to everyone who called shorts in the last month.

I would like to eventually started to short....ehhhh
  • #24,960
  • Nov 5, 2010 5:43am Nov 5, 2010 5:43am
  •  damo
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chart Pattern & Trend Trader | 217 Posts
Quoting Moritz
I would like to eventually started to short....ehhhh
Yeah me too. But don't play with fire. Most traders who go broke try to predict turning points.

If its any consilation, Friday is usually a bit of a wild card day and may swing either way.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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