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Aboonacci System - for EUR/USD prediction

  • #3,061
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:01am Nov 4, 2010 8:01am
Quoting luckylady
I don't think lolcat said a 10 pip stop, they said if the level is broken by 7-10 pips.

MSOOD Common sense also tells me I would not of shorted now from 61-23. We are in an uptrend, so obviously you will get stopped out now if you short. Even if level broke by 7- 10 pips i would not of shorted.
  • #3,062
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:02am Nov 4, 2010 8:02am
Quoting msood
price crossed below 61.8 by more than 10 pipis - so following the 61 - 23 rule one would have shorted with a 10 pip stop loss - that would have been taken out. check the chart.

I guess, the 61 - 23 rule is not sacrosan - price is above 76lvl again
Why a 10 pip stop loss??
  • #3,063
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:03am Nov 4, 2010 8:03am
Quoting msood
price crossed below 61.8 by more than 10 pipis - so following the 61 - 23 rule one would have shorted with a 10 pip stop loss - that would have been taken out. check the chart.

I guess, the 61 - 23 rule is not sacrosan - price is above 76lvl again
The rule I would take most notice of at the moment is the price reaching the 100% level as its a strong uptrend.
  • #3,064
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:08am Nov 4, 2010 8:08am
Quoting hardearned
MSOOD Common sense also tells me I would not of shorted now from 61-23. We are in an uptrend, so obviously you will get stopped out now if you short. Even if level broke by 7- 10 pips i would not of shorted.
common sense does not apply - we are talking strictly Bobi's rules interpretation here. As far as the trend goes, depends upon what timeframe you are looking at.
  • #3,065
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:09am Nov 4, 2010 8:09am
Quoting luckylady
Why a 10 pip stop loss??
somewhere in the docs, i remember having seen something about the stop loss of 10 pips max being sufficient if we follow the rules...
  • #3,066
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:11am Nov 4, 2010 8:11am
Quoting msood
common sense does not apply - we are talking strictly Bobi's rules interpretation here. As far as the trend goes, depends upon what timeframe you are looking at.
I always trade with the trend. Best to look for a retrace and enter long again at one of the levels on the templates... look on longer timeframes for trend and use shorter for entries
  • #3,067
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:12am Nov 4, 2010 8:12am
Quoting msood
common sense does not apply - we are talking strictly Bobi's rules interpretation here. As far as the trend goes, depends upon what timeframe you are looking at.
Firstly, where does it mention in the rules that we have a 10 pip stop loss, and secondly, the first rule of it breaking the 38.2% is that it will get to the 76.4% and usually onto the 100% so no I wouldn't short it going by bobi's rules.
  • #3,068
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:16am Nov 4, 2010 8:16am
Quoting hardearned
MSOOD Common sense also tells me I would not of shorted now from 61-23. We are in an uptrend, so obviously you will get stopped out now if you short. Even if level broke by 7- 10 pips i would not of shorted.
Hi all
If u had put last nights H L C in the calculator you would see that there's a key point at 4229 (I think it was) and if broken maker gets bulish temper and reversal to downside gets weaker I wouldn't recommend going short. Dint fight the bull Market ;-)
  • #3,069
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:19am Nov 4, 2010 8:19am
Quoting msood
somewhere in the docs, i remember having seen something about the stop loss of 10 pips max being sufficient if we follow the rules...

A stop loss of 2 was also described as sufficient, in certain circumstances, but the system designer did state he sometimes used a stop loss of 30pips.
  • #3,070
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:20am Nov 4, 2010 8:20am
Quoting luckylady
Firstly, where does it mention in the rules that we have a 10 pip stop loss, and secondly, the first rule of it breaking the 38.2% is that it will get to the 76.4% and usually onto the 100% so no I wouldn't short it going by bobi's rules.
Neither would I - I was replying to LOLCAT's quote:

"from what i ve noticed so far 38-76 and 61 23 numbers you can be precise to the pip,white 38 its good to have some confirmation...the trades i take are around 20-25 pips,not much but i cant remember a day when i was in negative pips (it was proly early september,long before i started using abonacci)"
  • #3,071
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:34am Nov 4, 2010 8:34am
Strong tendency is high, yet not returned to the stage of 38.2, not even touched the 50%. I also hope the 100% stage, but a shrinking waiting until at least the 38.2% fibo of white.
  • #3,072
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:46am Nov 4, 2010 8:46am
Quoting luckylady
Firstly, where does it mention in the rules that we have a 10 pip stop loss, and secondly, the first rule of it breaking the 38.2% is that it will get to the 76.4% and usually onto the 100% so no I wouldn't short it going by bobi's rules.
but 38-76 is 61 -23 downwards,it should work both ways...but it doesnt everytime...we had big news yesterday,huge spike but no retrace and another one today morning so when it broke 61 from up it looked like retrace but it wasnt...well it wasnt immediately,there are still 100% phase and 1.4288 keypoint so it can be down by the end of the day

but it just doesnt work everytime i am afraid
  • #3,073
  • Nov 4, 2010 8:56am Nov 4, 2010 8:56am
Quoting LolCat
but 38-76 is 61 -23 downwards,it should work both ways...but it doesnt everytime...we had big news yesterday,huge spike but no retrace and another one today morning so when it broke 61 from up it looked like retrace but it wasnt...well it wasnt immediately,there are still 100% phase and 1.4288 keypoint so it can be down by the end of the day

but it just doesnt work everytime i am afraid
spot on.
  • #3,074
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:00am Nov 4, 2010 9:00am
Quoting msood
spot on.
another thing i would add is that if in a day its already been such move (38-76 or 61-23) dont go for another (especially in oposite direction) even if you have signals,or use very tight SL

i wonder how many new things will we learn throughout testing this
  • #3,075
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:23am Nov 4, 2010 9:23am
Quoting LolCat
another thing i would add is that if in a day its already been such move (38-76 or 61-23) dont go for another (especially in oposite direction) even if you have signals,or use very tight SL

i wonder how many new things will we learn throughout testing this
actually, i wouldn't go that far. considering that there are only limited opportunities in a day and the rules hold majority of the times, a one off 10 pip loss is acceptable. If you look at the past history, the 38-76 and 61-23 work quite well.

the only point coming out of this particular case is that there are exceptions to any system, and no system is an exception to this golden rule!

if you trace back a bit, you will notice that even the 23 - 76 - 100 or 76 - 23 - 0 work to a good degree. So no need to give up those pips either - just operate with stop losses and if it gets taken out, so be it - move on wih the next opportunity.

for added comfort, as kiwiparis eluded, you can trade in the direction of a 20 ema on a m15, or a 50 ema if you want to be more conservative.
  • #3,076
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:27am Nov 4, 2010 9:27am
Quoting msood
actually, i wouldn't go that far. considering that there are only limited opportunities in a day and the rules hold majority of the times, a one off 10 pip loss is acceptable. If you look at the past history, the 38-76 and 61-23 work quite well.

the only point coming out of this particular case is that there are exceptions to any system, and no system is an exception to this golden rule!

if you trace back a bit, you will notice that even the 23 - 76 - 100 or 76 - 23 -...
i did backtest october template 3 and out of 21 trading day there were 14 i think when the rule was confirmed,but also some false signals
  • #3,077
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:32am Nov 4, 2010 9:32am
Quoting LolCat
but 38-76 is 61 -23 downwards,it should work both ways...but it doesnt everytime...we had big news yesterday,huge spike but no retrace and another one today morning so when it broke 61 from up it looked like retrace but it wasnt...well it wasnt immediately,there are still 100% phase and 1.4288 keypoint so it can be down by the end of the day

but it just doesnt work everytime i am afraid
Very good interpretation. 7 pips below and hit back.
  • #3,078
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:49am Nov 4, 2010 9:49am
aebab, do you have a template for Crude Oil?

thanks
  • #3,079
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:58am Nov 4, 2010 9:58am
Quoting LolCat
but 38-76 is 61 -23 downwards,it should work both ways...but it doesnt everytime...we had big news yesterday,huge spike but no retrace and another one today morning so when it broke 61 from up it looked like retrace but it wasnt...well it wasnt immediately,there are still 100% phase and 1.4288 keypoint so it can be down by the end of the day

but it just doesnt work everytime i am afraid
I know its the same the other way, but by the same rules, I wouldn't go into a 38% break up if it had come down and hadn't reached the 0% yet, I just find they work better after reaching the 0 or 100 first unless I could afford a larger stop loss than the phase line.
  • #3,080
  • Nov 4, 2010 10:01am Nov 4, 2010 10:01am
Quoting luckylady
I know its the same the other way, but by the same rules, I wouldn't go into a 38% break up if it had come down and hadn't reached the 0% yet, I just find they work better after reaching the 0 or 100 first unless I could afford a larger stop loss than the phase line.
thx for reminding me,yes i also noticed break of phase 0 or 100,they work better
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