THV 4.0 Journal

Welcome to my new journal for the THV 4 system

Goals and Objectives:

1. To accuratley track all trades on the EUR/USD using the THV 4.0 system
2. 2 months of trading data
3. every night from 0600GMT to 1400GMT (Tuesday night to friday morning) (Two Sessions, London/US)
4. No more than three trades per day (Three total, for both sessions)
5. Risk no more than 2% per trade
6. Goal 20% Gain in equity per month
7. Increase users who trade using THV, get input from people actively trading THV
8. Put together a free skype room for those that want to trade THV (After proven profitability), beore the two months for THV experienced users.

Background on me

I'm not a total noob to forex, but I know enough to be dangerous. I've decided to get serious about trading and take my paper trading seriously. Been trading on and off since 2007.

I think a lot of traders go through this, I'd pick it up and then get frustrated and drop it. I'd be doing well then would overleverage my self or try and make a big winner and end up taking a big loser. Then blame the market or my self and would give up for a while.

The truth is now I understand if I want to be a real trader I have to pay my dues, I have to forward test, let my emotions fly until I'm calm, look at all my bad habits as I am paper trading and seeing how I sabbotage myself so that I can be a more consistent trader.

I'm ready to focus on the process of trading and becoming a better technician at this craft, as opossed to making my account explode with cash over night.

There are times when I look at the market and my perspective is right in line with the market sentiment and things go my way. I don't even need a system for those days. Then when the market doesn't have a clear direction the system is nice to help filter out of trades, then I realize I shouldn't trade with out a system.

The Plan

I'll see how the first two months go, November and December. If things are all good (20% return) I'll go live and keep a record here. If not I'll keep paper trading until I hit that goal.

I would really like some feedback from folks who are succesfully trading the THV system or are profitably trading another system and would like to comment on a particular trade or my methodes/thinking process, or for that matter anything else you'd like to comment =)

I'm going to do my best to elaborate on my thoughts and feelings towards trades. Let me know if you think I should be divulging more or elaborating on certain things.

I am also going to post an MT4 live account so we can see how I'm doing live.

Special Thanks

I've got to say I love forexfactory. This community is a great resource for all of us wannabees. I appreciate every poster and system creator, BIG thanks to the THV group and all the posters from the thread.

Wish me luck guys!

Good luck I voted in your poll. The poll is a good idea please everyone take part.

Good luck Kush, i look forward to your sucess

Thanks for the support guys! Thanks for voting in the poll, much appreciated. Tread, I wish you luck too my friend. We will get there!

I've setup the mt4live.com account. The address is kush.mt4live.com.

I've setup the mt4 live account for accountability on my part and having an open view into my experience through this journey.

Market Snap Shot for November 2, 2010:

 

1. Technical Analysis

The chart shown here is a 60EMA (RED) 200 (SMA). I am watching the 1.4000 area for a break, after looking at the charts I'm overall bearish. My reasoning for this is that the 4h chart shows some possible reversal candles, not strong signals like i like to see but the area has rejected price around 1.4058 area before.

On the 1h chart I'm seeing bearish setup because of the channel resistance area, and I feel that this is confluence with what I'm seeing on the 4h charts. I'm using 1.4000 area as a decision zone, I'll look on THV 5m and a plain 1h/15 min chart to track price action as. Unless of course price action breaks serious resistance areas, then I'm open to change my sentiment.

 

1. News

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - USD - at 815am Nov 3rd
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - USD - at 10:00am Nov 3rd

No news until the US session. I'll be trading at 12:00AM MST.

To start off. The thick red line is where I went short after price broke 1.4000 and the tricks was split crossing and had crossed the 0 line. The problem here was I broke the rules. I had a pivot, the FPV line a few pips below the 1.4000 level but chose to ignore it because I wanted to be in a trade apparently.

I was also married to my direction, I was trying to predict where price would go. The hourly chart was showing a solid up trend, with in the channel but still trending up so I should have open to bullish setups. The other three lines represent trades I missed. I took a nap, I work grave yards and was just crashing.

Next set of trades I need to be more flexible to go wherever price is going, instead of projecting where it will go.

When I woke up I took a signal on the 1m chart again to go short, which was another bad idea. Looks like I've got a lot of work to do on my analysis and logic towards trading on these lower time frames.

It's funny how all I have to do is follow the rules, and that is apparently to hard for me >< frustrating. So maybe I should just follow the damn rules instead of making up my own. The fourth red line was the 1m trade. I think officially I can say I have a new rule. Don't trade against the 1h time frame.

Good luck with your trading Kush. I tried THV but couldn't make a success of it, I now just trade price action, trend lines & pivots with much more luck. Without a doubt, sticking to your rules is the hardest part. Too often I get married to trades only to be stopped out at break even. I don't bother too much about having a longer term bias now, for example there are plenty of reasons to have both a long and short bias on EUR/USD at the moment. If I had to pick, I would have a bullish bias on the Euro at the moment due to the break of the pennant on the four hourly yesterday.


You bet I've been through that, too many times!

Price action is a good way to go. I'm keeping my eye on the four hour and daily for my position trades, the longer term trading seems to be a bit easier to take on. Scalping is just such a challenge!

I will have to keep a journal on my 4h and daily trades as well. So you just canned scalping, mostly swing/position trading for you?

I think I see where your talking about. On the 4h after we broke 1.4ish, I didn't see that before. I guess I'm just wanting the EUR to drop so bad I'm seeing bears lol.

Kush, no I'm a scalper, 5 minute charts only for me. It just suits my personality - I hate being in trades for longer than a few minutes! Swing trading definitely gives you the higher probability set ups, less transaction costs and so on - but my personality doesn't allow it. I would be checking the price every two minutes. Check out my journal for the kind of thing I'm talking about. Today is actually a great scalping day on the Euro but I made my profit early and like you, I don't want to over trade.

The best advice I can give you is something I picked up on the original THV thread: 'trend lines - draw them everywhere'.

One thing I noticed about your MT4 results, you risked 2.4% on one of your trades rather than the 2% you planned. Was there a reason for that?

Glad I put the live account up ha ha! I hurried in a trade on the 1min, again because I just KNEW it was coming down. I didn't set my stop I just told my self if it doesn't pop right away I'll close it out at -6 pips which would have been 36$...about 1%. I clicked to close the trade but it slipped and that was the price they offered me.

Can I get a link to your thread, I'd like to get an insight into your views. Also, I was thinking about money management on this. I'm trying to stay at 1:2 risk/reward, but I don't know how feasible it is. What's your TP method? I feel like I'm asking to much from the market on this low of a time frame.

BTW, your comment on pivots. I'm using the pivots from the THV system, I almost want to use them exclusively. It blows me away how price obeys those areas.

I did take a third trade btw, but closed it out after I realized I had no reason to get in. Lol trading seems a lot easier in my head

I just put a link in my signature. I am a pretty new trader by the way so don't take anything in there too seriously. At least I'm pretty new to doing it 'properly', I have wasted cash on mechanical systems in the past.

Anything above 1:1 is fine, I take profit at pivot levels. You're right, it's amazing how price reacts to them. Especially the opening price. I don't think it's possible to trade them alone but they are invaluable for TP levels. This morning for example I used yesterdays high as a TP and it reversed there almost to the pip. If you think the move is going to be strong then it's not a bad idea to set your stop to break even at the first sign of resistance then wait for the next pivot. You just have to thrash out your own strategy and see what works for you really, you'll develop a hunch in no time. Don't trade into strong pivot levels, I think you learned that this morning (I do it all the time)

Last week fell apart due to some scheduling conflicts with work but will be back at it tuesday!

I'm back. Last week ended up being a cluster, I didn't plan my week around trading. This week I'm prepared and will be for the sessions. Looks like we've got some news coming out for US.

1.3743 level is where my S1 pivot is. I will be looking to go short only, if the market starts going the other way I'm going to assume it's retracing or going to Mars. I'm not going to chase price this morning. I'm going to trade my plan.

So I stepped away the bathroom as soon as we broke out. Price had a bit of momentum, I waited for a retest of 1.3743 area. Is it just me or do the plain charts offer more clear signals?

Either way today was a success because I didn't try and jump into the trade. I'll be back for the london and US sessions tonight. I'll make sure and hit the bathroom before I trade so I'm not kicking my self.

I'm wondering if I can use the THV as a reference and take signals off of a plain chart. The TRIX is a nice indicator, which I like but I seem to see more price action signals on a normal chart. We'll see with time.

I did follow the rules tho. The screenshot shows when I got the clear signal, by the time the trix crossed and we broke the pivot, I was so close to over sold zone that I didn't jump in. The trix did cross prior but we were so close to the pivot that I didn't take it, they want us 25-30 pips away from next target.

Now this maybe one of those situation where I learn that to get in early I must break the rules slightly, but I'm trying to keep it simple and work with in the rules of the system.

I guess I'm learning how to not trade if that makes sense. I'm not really looking for opportunities to trade, I'm learning how to not just find a reason to jump in. Even tho I feel like I missed a move that I could have got on, I did follow the rules and that is the point.

Hi Kush you could set the THV4 Trix V1.0 to alert you when the fast trix changes color on the M1 chart. This will give you a few minutes if the trix cross is going to happen to work out if you want to take the trade at the cross.

I have adopted that and placed the alert on to make it easier for my self, thanks for the suggestion. I'm also using the MTF to get a better overview of trend and momentum.

I made a trade tonight, it was kind of against the trend but all the indicators lined up. I decided to catch a retracement or an actual turn back down in the long term trend. I got out with three pips after I got into oversold zone on the 1m chart.

Going to try and catch a 10 pip move if possible. Thanks for all your help guys, and Tread to. This is really helping my perspective.

BTW, the first red vertical line is entry and the second is exit.

I should elaborate more on my analysis. I'm looking at the 4h the 1h then the 15min for short term trend. I'm using a 62ema and 200SMA on another chart for analysis. I'll include an overview of my analysis process so things are more clear. I apologize for my laziness.

Damnit! The trade went my direction >< I guess I was hasty pulling the trigger on TP. The damn thing hit 18 pips, I only took 3 out. At least I picked direction and followed a good setup, Guess I better lockin a 10 pip target and set my SL and let her ride. EFFF!!


Second Trade
This second trade was a bit of a fumble but here it goes. The break out happened out of that triangle, I guess you would call it. Then price broke out of the Middle Resistance level.

Price became oversold on the trix, I thought about waiting for it to come back down and cross but I impulsively bought while it was overbought because I didn't want to miss the move. I did however purchase when price retraced and retested the middle pivot level. I figured I might as well get another trade with a better price. So I did, both trades worked out.

Was able to squeeze $210 out of tonight but still down over 8% on the account. I feel like I used the tools a bit better tonight. I could have had more patience on the 2nd trade. I still followed my money management as well.

Going to call it a night for trading and study. I'll be back in the US session to check things out. Thanks for all your input guys.

Happy pipping today Kush, looks like the bulls are in charge of the Euro today. I had a long at 45ish but I was whipsawed out of it. Have you modified your rules now you're using the MTF indies?

I have a bit. My TP, is 10 pips. Tonight I got lucky and had a couple of runners.
I've decided I'm only buying or selling at pivots, wating for price action and indicators to help me get in.

I'm making it up as I go lol, seems like when I screw up I start to make rules around the behavior that tripped me. So far the pivot rule and the following the 15m chart for direction, and making sure the MTF indi has the lights the same color have been things I've been using.

I'm starting to "trust" in the cloud a bit more, I'm sure I'll get some hard fast rules over time. Right now I'm just trying to get in the flow of the system and work out all my bad habits

By the way, nice channel/triangle formation on your second chart. You could have traded the break out and retrace to the trend line, then rode it to the pivot maybe?