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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #9,261
  • Nov 2, 2010 2:45pm Nov 2, 2010 2:45pm
Quoting Oshawa
Hi, Marc. Interesting to read your view on the potential impact of the election result. The gossips I have read is that if GOP takes back both houses, then dollar should strengthen, even though briefly, due to the expectation that Republicans would reign in borrowing and spending (so less QE2), and that means markets have got a bit ahead of themselves in pricing in too much QE2.

Always good to see some other views.
Absolutely. I, myself do not know how to interpret the effect of the USD when so many different news events take place at once like this week. The last time I saw a week like this the FX market moved back and forth hundreds of pips until some sense of understanding returned.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #9,262
  • Nov 2, 2010 3:52pm Nov 2, 2010 3:52pm
Since we're trading, not investing, I suspect the election results along with all the other news will, as you suggest, yield a lot of noise(and stop out a lot of punters), but real direction may take a bit longer to digest.

I was so pissed off at my choices that I wrote in Karl Denninger for a bunch of slots. Take that DC.

I don't care who wins, the only change we'll ever see is what remains of our paychecks.

Sorry for the political rant. I used to care, now I just want anti-depressants.
  • #9,263
  • Nov 2, 2010 4:32pm Nov 2, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting erikte279
Nice quote

“I’d rather be out of a market (or stock) wishing I was in, than in a market wishing I was out.”

Did not get to ride this. So, I'm basically consoling myself with the quote shared by Erikte.

I'm feeling better already.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: CAD 101102 4hr.jpg Size: 66 KB
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,264
  • Nov 2, 2010 5:26pm Nov 2, 2010 5:26pm
Need some pointers here on GBP.

Anybody looking to go long?

Confluence - Cup and handle, potential AB=CD (yes Low, I still remember your pointers) , but RSI not looking very bright.

How would you handle plan this or act on this view.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP 101102 4hrs.jpg Size: 80 KB
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,265
  • Nov 2, 2010 5:29pm Nov 2, 2010 5:29pm
Quoting Flow
Need some pointers here on GBP.

Anybody looking to go long?

Confluence - Cup and handle, potential AB=CD (yes Low, I still remember your pointers) , but RSI not looking very bright.

How would you handle plan this or act on this view.
G/U? If so, I'm waiting as the USD pairs are quiet ahead of U.S. election results. Placing a trade on one of these pairs is like gambling right now IMHO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 102 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #9,266
  • Nov 2, 2010 5:32pm Nov 2, 2010 5:32pm
I forgot until I just looked... to add to all of the news crap this week JPY is closed today! Ok, I'm stepping away from the desk and enjoying the T.V. and pizza!

Low, I agree with you!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #9,267
  • Nov 2, 2010 5:35pm Nov 2, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting Flow
Need some pointers here on GBP.

Anybody looking to go long?

Confluence - Cup and handle, potential AB=CD (yes Low, I still remember your pointers) , but RSI not looking very bright.

How would you handle plan this or act on this view.
Well Flow, the potential harmonic thing we've already gone over, but that cup 'n handle is a awesome catch----good eye, I sure as heck didn't notice it, but there it is plain as day.

When I draw the validation line, I can say that yesterday and the day before both tested it and failed to break to the downside, so IMO is a green light for a long.

It's so textbook I think I'll be taking it with you (if ya don't mind).

The target for these is the distance from the bottom of the cup to the top, measured from the breakout.

Good call!
  • #9,268
  • Nov 2, 2010 7:12pm Nov 2, 2010 7:12pm
Gbp/cad
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Annoying Precision
  • #9,269
  • Nov 2, 2010 11:54pm Nov 2, 2010 11:54pm
I will be a little suprised if es doesn't drop from 1199 today, everything on my charts is pointing to a top and a correction.
AU also looks like it hit a top on Tuesday, 1.0024 is monthly and quarterly resistance and 160 and 80 pip range bar tops.
  • #9,270
  • Nov 3, 2010 12:16am Nov 3, 2010 12:16am
AU charts for above, 1.0024 is the weekly and monthly resistance. RH chart is 160 pip range bars. Unless we get a new high my bias is towards the yellow lows (9562)
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  • #9,271
  • Nov 3, 2010 12:19am Nov 3, 2010 12:19am
Quoting MarcVUM
G/U? If so, I'm waiting as the USD pairs are quiet ahead of U.S. election results. Placing a trade on one of these pairs is like gambling right now IMHO.
noted on the sentiment. Thx.
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,272
  • Nov 3, 2010 12:28am Nov 3, 2010 12:28am
dx 1.6 range bar chart. This pattern can easily lead to bullish moves. EU and gu have not moved up far enough yet in November ( I have targets of 1.4350 and 1.6160 respectively) but this pattern implies a lower move first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,273
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:07am Nov 3, 2010 1:07am
Quoting Low
Well Flow, the potential harmonic thing we've already gone over, but that cup 'n handle is a awesome catch----good eye, I sure as heck didn't notice it, but there it is plain as day.

When I draw the validation line, I can say that yesterday and the day before both tested it and failed to break to the downside, so IMO is a green light for a long.

It's so textbook I think I'll be taking it with you (if ya don't mind).

The target for these is the distance from the bottom of the cup to the top, measured from the breakout.

Good call!
Thx Low. By all means please join me. The only thing left to do is to make plan an entry. Lets hope this one rides out well. With Marc's opinion in mind, I'd probably make this small for a try. Will be waiting for a some decent PA to get in, if I'm around that is.

Now that we have got the cup & handle out of the way. Here is my next question to all. Another self fulfilling prophecy or confluence if I may add, is a smaller "ab = cd =depth of the cup" on a 50% replacement at point C. Which also tested White LTL. Would you agree? The only thing lacking in this whole setup is some indication on RSI to support this breakout.

Amy, what's you view on the pivot in terms of direction. I see that is finding support above daily pivot + weekly midpoint pivot. Care to share?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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May the pip flow with you
  • #9,274
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:14am Nov 3, 2010 1:14am
Quoting Flow
Thx Low. By all means please join me. The only thing left to do is to make plan an entry. Lets hope this one rides out well. With Marc's opinion in mind, I'd probably make this small for a try. Will be waiting for a some decent PA to get in, if I'm around that is.

Now that we have got the cup & handle out of the way. Here is my next question to all. Another self fulfilling prophecy or confluence if I may add, is a smaller "ab = cd =depth of the cup" on a 50% replacement at point C. Which also tested White LTL. Would you agree? The only thing...
for eu and gu this doesn't look like the most ideal sell but for au and es it does and dx has potentially found some support. es and dow are well due for a retracement, they will do a major retracement every 18 weeks or so and currently we are 18 weeks from the lows in July. So at the moment I would be careful, sometime in November there should be a sharp retracement that lasts for a week or 2, to me tonight looks like a possible start.
  • #9,275
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:27am Nov 3, 2010 1:27am
Quoting amyc
for eu and gu this doesn't look like the most ideal sell but for au and es it does and dx has potentially found some support. es and dow are well due for a retracement, they will do a major retracement every 18 weeks or so and currently we are 18 weeks from the lows in July. So at the moment I would be careful, sometime in November there should be a sharp retracement that lasts for a week or 2, to me tonight looks like a possible start.
Looking to long GU. A very interesting topic on market cycle you have brought up. What you have described is a correlation trade setup?
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,276
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:37am Nov 3, 2010 1:37am
Quoting Flow
Looking to long GU. A very interesting topic on market cycle you have brought up. What you have described is a correlation trade setup?
The cycles in es are very clear. I am currently short au and long eu, but my eu long has +120 locked in.
  • #9,277
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:22am Nov 3, 2010 3:22am
CAD - Waiting patiently for long if it comes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD 101103 4hr.jpg Size: 73 KB
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,278
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:38am Nov 3, 2010 3:38am
EU - Nice PA, respected daily pivot and came close to UTL for retest.

Waiting for Europe to open and make an entry if suitable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR 101103 1hr.jpg Size: 66 KB
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,279
  • Nov 3, 2010 4:11am Nov 3, 2010 4:11am
Quoting Flow
Thx Low. By all means please join me. The only thing left to do is to make plan an entry. Lets hope this one rides out well. With Marc's opinion in mind, I'd probably make this small for a try. Will be waiting for a some decent PA to get in, if I'm around that is.

Now that we have got the cup & handle out of the way. Here is my next question to all. Another self fulfilling prophecy or confluence if I may add, is a smaller "ab = cd =depth of the cup" on a 50% replacement at point C. Which also tested White LTL. Would you agree? The only thing...
corrections AB=CD is not the equals to the depth of the cup. its suppose to be from point of breakout as indicated by LOW.
May the pip flow with you
  • #9,280
  • Nov 3, 2010 9:51am Nov 3, 2010 9:51am
A/U. The break downwards...what is also great about this one is that it's the D PP that's being broke. Amy, I kept your previous post in mind early this morning when we hit 1 again. Fortunately, I took a short up there... S/L to +10 now...just in case FOMC does something crazy!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 161 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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