james16 Chart Thread

Currently watching 1.6000 BRN on GBPCHF.

 

1. Monthly shows support turned resistance at the BRN.
2. Weekly shows the ppz at 1.6 pretty clearly
3. Daily approaching a swing high, with confluence.

Looks like a good spot to get with the current trend, if we can test the BRN again.

lol Joel you are on the very top of my list of people to get a beer with

Excellent D. . . I like it.

There's also 50% retrace around that 1.6000. I'll be watching. . .

I got the second round.

Let's see how strong this down move really is . .

I just look at it as another chance to get on the train at the 1.3000 station. Just gotta figure out which direction to jump on.

RBA interest rate announcement sure seemed to push the AUD crosses toward the Round Numbers and created a lot of trading space. AUDCHF looks like another one to watch. I'd like to see this one move on up to parity.

Hey guys, I'll be the waiter....Another Beer Sir Jarroo, Mike & Joel.

It's a bit of both. And I've been slack for a while, so here is a wall of text.

When people say stuff like 'TA shows all the news', they are oversimplifying it a bit (usually because either they are busy or they are just repeating something they read which was dumbed down to begin with by certain authors who should stick to crayons, but I digress).

A more accurate way of putting it is that price (and therefore PA) shows the market's discounted value of all known information. Those bits in italics are the important parts.

First bit, the market doesnt tell you the actual price of, say, a bar of gold. A true price doesnt really exist. It's the average of the price that all the participants put on that bar of gold. Some of the market participants might think gold is massively overpriced and is just a dumb shiny rock, worth about $4 an oz. sellsellsell. The gold bugs might value that bar at $25,000/oz because they think that Socialist Kenyan Dictator Obama of the Federal Nazi Reserve is going to destroy the world with weapons of mass fiat currency*. buybuybuy. Both parties, along with the rest of the market, meet somewhere in the middle and we get a price.

The second part is that, obviously, price can only incorporate known news. Anything unexpected will quickly be assimilated into price as people buy/sell based on this new information.

So you get two effects there. The first one is that before the interest rate announcement, 'price' reflects the views of everyone on what the rate 'should' be... and the rate is unknown, at this point. Price isnt 'incorrect', it just shows what people think**.But after the announcement, the rate becomes known, and the market quickly adjusts.

That's why news can spike price. Not because it is good or bad news, per se, but because it is different to what people expected. If everyone thinks the next NFP is going to be terrible, and the number comes out and is terrible, the market will barely flinch. But should it come out merely bad, it will be a positive shock. Which is why we see things that appear to be stupid happening, like a share price going up on seemingly bad news.

Which, to finally get to the damn point, is why people might want to be aware of important news releases. That way, you can avoid it, manage it (ie, set your stops or hedge) or choose to ignore it. But you are an informed market participant, and I'll give you a gold star.

This is also why you can choose to ignore 'news', as defined as 'the news channel', which - generally speaking - is only reporting on things that people already know. All the economic analysis, all the opining of the hosts, all the reports of what happened in what company and what happened in politics and how much Warren Buffett values x company at and what people think about Blake Lively (hot) and Katy Perry (not) and so on... well, it's all stuff that's already known and discounted. You can see all that stuff on your chart.

I think that's where people get a bit mixed up. They conflate Jim Cramer or Fox News with NFP releases because both are 'news'. In reality, only NFP is news. The others are dissemination or analysis of known information (or pure trash). I'll leave which is which up to the reader

Ignoring news release dates is fine too, if you are so inclined. Nothing wrong with that. But dont be suprised when you get stopped out by a news spike arising from a known event that was one button click away and come crying to me. I'm not going to give you your twelve bucks back.


*(not sure exactly how they purchase said gold, given that currency = theft and so on, but there I go on another tangent).

** Following this concept, you can therefore use futures pricing to calculate the what the market thinks is the probability of a rate change ahead of the announcement.

A Texan, a New Yorker and an Aussie walk into a bar...

I hear you Joel, even good news is bad if it deviates from the mind set of the public at large.

This is probably the best, most concise explaination of News I've ever read.

Thanks Joel. Good stuff.

There's a funny joke in there somewhere . .lol . . .I would love to see it play out . .

lol

Your PB was at shallow swing point compared to Danny's (bluetrader) and you can see the result of why these deeper swing points are important. Its all about the Space that swing points provide.

AH now that is a topic I have been waiting to hear, the pullback that you guys wait for. And, I have seen you guys not take a nice looking PA bar simply because it did not pullback enough.

So, you are actually waiting for space to open up before the entry, rather like waiting in a car park for a lot to become vacant so it can then be filled again.

Got to run in 15 mins.

On it like a fly on honey pot. LoL

Monthly Usd/Chf PB. . .target hit!

Not sure what you mean by this, Pb??

Do you mean a retest of a break of a given setup?

Often, I will see say, a bearish or bullish PB, I think Johny is lost once said, he would have liked to see it pullback further maybe to a RN or a fibo.

Perhaps that is what I saw previously.


Got to run.