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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #8,721
  • Oct 31, 2010 9:37pm Oct 31, 2010 9:37pm
Quoting Custos
well, that is not a proper setup.
If your pullback makes a new low, it is not a bpc anymore. the pullback has to make a higher low, not a lower low.
OK thanks
We are all One. Be present. Be the Observer
  • #8,722
  • Nov 1, 2010 5:48am Nov 1, 2010 5:48am
slow
  • #8,723
  • Nov 1, 2010 7:36am Nov 1, 2010 7:36am
closed Eur/Jpy short for 40 pips. Market is a mess. Closed everything.
  • #8,724
  • Nov 1, 2010 7:52am Nov 1, 2010 7:52am
Quoting shiko
closed Eur/Jpy short for 40 pips. Market is a mess. Closed everything.
I am still in with full position. Don't really think the market is in a mess. It clearly shows that it has a downward bias, by making lower and lower highs and putting pressure on the bulls to finally also become bears. Again just my opinion. But I also rather shoot for a 1000 pips, that's why I don't look at it so short-term.
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  • #8,725
  • Nov 1, 2010 9:43am Nov 1, 2010 9:43am
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  • #8,726
  • Nov 1, 2010 12:45pm Nov 1, 2010 12:45pm
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  • #8,727
  • Nov 1, 2010 3:26pm Nov 1, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting Custos
I am still in with full position. Don't really think the market is in a mess. It clearly shows that it has a downward bias, by making lower and lower highs and putting pressure on the bulls to finally also become bears. Again just my opinion. But I also rather shoot for a 1000 pips, that's why I don't look at it so short-term.


Yeah, but it is so slow, I cannot take it
  • #8,728
  • Nov 1, 2010 3:53pm Nov 1, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting shiko
Yeah, but it is so slow, I cannot take it
haha, but the best profits come from holding on to stuff long-term.
  • #8,729
  • Nov 1, 2010 5:02pm Nov 1, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting Custos
haha, but the best profits come from holding on to stuff long-term.

I agree, but markets is not moving. I like when it is going fast. I am actually fast by nature I enter trade, I like it when my trade goes immediately into profit. If it goes against me and stays and doe snot move in my favor, I get paranoid and most of the time close trade even at loss.
  • #8,730
  • Nov 1, 2010 5:04pm Nov 1, 2010 5:04pm
I am looking for breakout of this range. I hope it will be strong one.That's where I want to let profits run again. It has been BE after BE for 2-3 weeks on second half of all my trades.
  • #8,731
  • Nov 1, 2010 5:05pm Nov 1, 2010 5:05pm
When/ if E/J breaks finally to downside next target looks obvious. 109.50 area.
  • #8,732
  • Nov 1, 2010 5:50pm Nov 1, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting Custos
But does it matter why the spike happened? Not really, just trade price.
It matters. Failing to consider why is a failure to recognize the conditions that existed at the time it happened and will lead to another failure to recognize the conditions when they happen again.

My opinion is the spike was a combination of a thin Sunday night market (neither European or USD banks / institutional investors at work and trading) and a consolidated price pattern (price moving mostly sideways / large triangle trend line pattern covering the month of October, easily visible on the H4). Then a fairly large transfer of funds occured which moved price in a big spike. That's all it was, but those who lost money will blame their broker of evil Halloween stop hunting.

The market can only do two things ... trend and non trend. Non trending markets transition into trending markets, and trending markets transition into non trending markets. The longer the market consolidates, the bigger the trend. This phenomena is easy to see using the Bollinger Bands, they are the only reliable predictor there is in Forex ... when the Bands get narrow, get ready, the market will be trending soon and no one can stop it. The market _needs_ to trend, it can't hold this consolidation pattern forever, $4 trillion of daily FX transaction pressure will force a trend. When trends happens people get excited and jump on board, which gives the trend even more momentum. The only way to catch a trend is to anticipate it ... so I am anticipating a trend. Will it go up? Maybe. Will it go down? Maybe. But will it trend? Definitely.
  • #8,733
  • Nov 1, 2010 6:00pm Nov 1, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting rubberband
It matters. Failing to consider why is a failure to recognize the conditions that existed at the time it happened and will lead to another failure to recognize the conditions when they happen again.

My opinion is the spike was a combination of a thin Sunday night market (neither European or USD banks / institutional investors at work and trading) and a consolidated price pattern (price moving mostly sideways / large triangle trend line pattern covering the month of October, easily visible on the H4). Then a fairly large transfer of funds occured...
This is not making sense to me.



Anybody seen any good hector setups?
  • #8,734
  • Nov 1, 2010 6:21pm Nov 1, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting Bandit
This is not making sense to me.



Anybody seen any good hector setups?
no
  • #8,735
  • Nov 1, 2010 7:10pm Nov 1, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting redsword11
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closed at nearest resistance
  • #8,736
  • Nov 1, 2010 7:55pm Nov 1, 2010 7:55pm
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  • #8,737
  • Nov 1, 2010 10:32pm Nov 1, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


closed short for a few, reversed
  • #8,738
  • Nov 1, 2010 10:32pm Nov 1, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting redsword11
closed short for a few, reversed

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  • #8,739
  • Nov 1, 2010 11:10pm Nov 1, 2010 11:10pm
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awaiting further PA for long
  • #8,740
  • Edited 2:24am Nov 2, 2010 1:54am | Edited 2:24am
Quoting rubberband
It matters. Failing to consider why is a failure to recognize the conditions that existed at the time it happened and will lead to another failure to recognize the conditions when they happen again.

My opinion is the spike was a combination of a thin Sunday night market (neither European or USD banks / institutional investors at work and trading) and a consolidated price pattern (price moving mostly sideways / large triangle trend line pattern covering the month of October, easily visible on the H4). Then a fairly large transfer of funds occured...
I don't know. Spikes are a random event. It is not very probable that one can profit from random events. What you need is an edge that has positive expectancy. That's why I said it doesn't matter why the spike happened, because that is so random, market conditions are typically so dry and fast, that you can't even enter during the spike. So, I still argue that it is useless to understand each and every single event that takes place in the market. Well, and you failed to see that this spike was registered on most currencies, and not every pair was ranging around in october, so your analysis of conditions of only one pair is again - useless.

Glad you found your way of trading with bollinger bands. However, to say that they are the only reliable predictor in the markets is a very bold & wrong statement. So then what you are saying is that all the successful hedge funds & traders are only using bollinger bands, since they are the ONLY reliable predictor.
There is probably some validity to bollinger bands, but they are definitely not the only thing there is.

And also a very wrong statement: "the only way to catch a trend is to anticipate." Trends go on for months or years. I am sure you don't neet to anticipate a trend to profit from it, since they move such a long time.

cheers
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