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  • #4,521
  • Oct 29, 2010 8:23am Oct 29, 2010 8:23am
go long on qe2, epic
  • #4,522
  • Edited 9:07am Oct 29, 2010 8:40am | Edited 9:07am
I like the idea of catching the daily move with a small sl and high leverage. About the entry, if it's ranging before a hopeful takeoff, I've toyed with entering on the extremes like off the bollinger to eventually catch the move, keeping a limit on number of attempts per opening and maybe catching a few pips on the turns.

This NY open-

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/9270/58923574.jpg


Edit: Actually hindsight is 20/20 drawing little arrows. The time I would know to close and buy would be at around the 3875, so forget the next two arrows. The entry is tough.
  • #4,523
  • Oct 29, 2010 10:32am Oct 29, 2010 10:32am
jmag - I actually took that trade as it finally tested 1.3850 and returned north. Since it is NOT part of tonys method, trailing stop got 30 pips.
But, Tony does work off S/R and Round Numbers if he can it seems.(with his patented 2SL)
  • #4,524
  • Oct 30, 2010 7:42am Oct 30, 2010 7:42am
by the time you add up all the 2pip stops, the trade becomes -30pips +100 so you might as well just use 30 pips stops and bag more frequent 100 pip moves.
  • #4,525
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:22am Oct 30, 2010 9:22am
Quoting onemind
by the time you add up all the 2pip stops, the trade becomes -30pips +100 so you might as well just use 30 pips stops and bag more frequent 100 pip moves.


To accomplish a -30 pips, I need 12 NY Opens fails and 12 London opens fails
This is not even considering my future pip restoring add-on to the thread


come on onemind, make up your mind... is this technique working for you or are you starting to give up?
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  • #4,526
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:26am Oct 30, 2010 9:26am
Dear Tony
Please, I still did not understand the system, but I've read is quite extensive, if possible could you guide to better understanding, as are the inputs, outputs .... now very grateful.
  • #4,527
  • Oct 31, 2010 7:28am Oct 31, 2010 7:28am
i just downloaded 6 years worth of oanda tick data so it should be very easy to back test this simple system.

will post the results shortly
  • #4,528
  • Oct 31, 2010 9:13am Oct 31, 2010 9:13am
Quoting onemind
i just downloaded 6 years worth of oanda tick data so it should be very easy to back test this simple system.

will post the results shortly

how will u calculate progressive SL reduction to 0sl?

put an average of 1.24 pip loss per trade
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  • #4,529
  • Oct 31, 2010 9:59am Oct 31, 2010 9:59am
Lets assume we can make either two 100pip wins or five 40pips wins during the same time period. That would be 200 pips total. If 1pip = .25% account growth then 100 pips = 25% growth and 40 pips = 10% growth. Two 100pip wins would grow our account by 56.25% (1.25*1.25), while five 40pip wins would grow the account by ~61% (1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1).

Now that really comes to backtesting and finding out the best TP size. If we could make two 100pips wins or only four 40pips during the same period then 100pips TP would be better.
  • #4,530
  • Oct 31, 2010 10:04am Oct 31, 2010 10:04am
Quoting onemind
i just downloaded 6 years worth of oanda tick data so it should be very easy to back test this simple system.

will post the results shortly
Are you able to load this data into Oanda platform after downloading or you backtest using some other software?
  • #4,531
  • Oct 31, 2010 8:24pm Oct 31, 2010 8:24pm
Here we go - a 70+ pips spike on Tokyo open. Do you guys know what this is? This is called pure manipulation. Do you know why weekend gaps always get closed? Because someone has an open short position since last week and he needs to close it without a loss. Apparently it was some japanese bank, maybe even the Bank of Japan. This time they probably had an open position from 3900, that's why the spike is so long. After they closed their shorts the price came back to its value. Don't forget - the banks are also market makers, that means they make market for you guys. If their market share is big enough at a specific moment they can do whatever they want with the price. Just my thoughts, maybe I'm wrong.
Attached Image
  • #4,532
  • Oct 31, 2010 9:19pm Oct 31, 2010 9:19pm
Quote
how will u calculate progressive SL reduction to 0sl?

put an average of 1.24 pip loss per trade

I plan to test a wide range of stoploss and take profit combinitations to find the optimal.

Quote
Are you able to load this data into Oanda platform after downloading or you backtest using some other software?

I am using pure C for speed. I tried in amibroker but it is so slow with a 2gb file worth of tick data.
  • #4,533
  • Oct 31, 2010 11:19pm Oct 31, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting onemind
I plan to test a wide range of stoploss and take profit combinitations to find the optimal.



I am using pure C for speed. I tried in amibroker but it is so slow with a 2gb file worth of tick data.



ok let us know what you come up with, use only 1 entry per open ... not like I'm doing lol
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  • #4,534
  • Oct 31, 2010 11:21pm Oct 31, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting seagreen
Here we go - a 70+ pips spike on Tokyo open. Do you guys know what this...
we're talking about a a few dozens of digits of manipulation here... i guess they know what they're doing
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  • #4,535
  • Nov 1, 2010 12:01am Nov 1, 2010 12:01am
Quoting onemind
I plan to test a wide range of stoploss and take profit combinitations to find the optimal.

I am using pure C for speed. I tried in amibroker but it is so slow with a 2gb file worth of tick data.
I'm using C# for tick data backtest and I have slightly modified the condition for my other project to mimic Tony's idea for London open. However I only tested the summer period 2010 because I didnt include DST in my code. Although my backtest result cannot fully represent Tony's system but the basic idea is same. Tony's idea is actually similar to mine but just his idea is much much more extreme than mine.

Anyway the backtest result is still profitable. If I include the BE function in my code then i believe the performance will be much better.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Extreme Fat Tail.xls   27 KB | 609 downloads
  • #4,536
  • Nov 1, 2010 12:13am Nov 1, 2010 12:13am
Quoting Tony112
we're talking about a a few dozens of digits of manipulation here... i guess they know what they're doing
The spike looks even more interesting at a close up. Here's the tick chart of MBT feed. Most of the sell ticks have a volume of 2M and buy ticks are 5M. Still the price was going down, spread was around 15 pips (difference between up ticks and down ticks). I don't really understand what was going on here. Can anyone who has a better knowledge of the insides of forex market explain? Can anyone post a tick chart of this spike from a different feed?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD 10_31_2010 (1 Tick).png Size: 63 KB
  • #4,537
  • Nov 1, 2010 12:19am Nov 1, 2010 12:19am
Quoting ForexQuant
I'm using C# for tick data backtest and I have slightly modified the condition for my other project to mimic Tony's idea for London open. However I only tested the summer period 2010 because I didnt include DST in my code. Although my backtest result cannot fully represent Tony's system but the basic idea is same. Tony's idea is actually similar to mine but just his idea is much much more extreme than mine.

Anyway the backtest result is still profitable. If I include the BE function in my code then i believe the performance will be much better....

Did you try to backtest it with smaller TP? I see your input was 141 here.
  • #4,538
  • Nov 1, 2010 12:34am Nov 1, 2010 12:34am
Quoting seagreen
Did you try to backtest it with smaller TP? I see your input was 141 here.
So far TP around 50-100 did better. Please bear in mind that my backtest does not speak for longer term. Extreme fat tails system need a big sample size to confirm its validity because outliners do not predict outliner.
  • #4,539
  • Nov 1, 2010 12:53am Nov 1, 2010 12:53am
Quoting seagreen
The spike looks even more interesting at a close up. Here's the tick chart of MBT feed. Most of the sell ticks have a volume of 2M and buy ticks are 5M. Still the price was going down, spread was around 15 pips (difference between up ticks and down ticks). I don't really understand what was going on here. Can anyone who has a better knowledge of the insides of forex market explain? Can anyone post a tick chart of this spike from a different feed?
pretty impressive, that's all I can say now don't ask me to explain it lol
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  • #4,540
  • Nov 1, 2010 12:57am Nov 1, 2010 12:57am
Quoting seagreen
Here we go - a 70+ pips spike on Tokyo open. Do you guys know what this...
btw you're doing good on your trades... i don't know if it is consistent but wow
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