wad do u guys think about the GJ now? 2 PB were formed at the weekly pivot which seems to be quite a strong PPZ area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
james16 Chart Thread
- #78,943
- Oct 31, 2010 10:11am Oct 31, 2010 10:11am
Go to party but don't get over drunk.. This forum needs your active analysis/wisdom to help newbies (like me).
Hope you don't feel like I did yesterday or we can change your name from Han Solo, to Hang Over! LoL
Ok, this is to start the ball rolling on this Sunday morning with a "Where is this bar going" question.
By, where is it going, we mean where is the next bar likely to go.
There is a great prize for the winner of this quiz!
That prize being, becoming proficient at working out your likely FTA targets of any given bar. Nothing to be sniffed at as this means, you are much less likely to get your SL hit before you get a chance to go BE & take partial or full profit.
Ok, I will not mention which pair or when this...
I strongly vote for a retrace and subsequent downtrend continuation.
1. We're in a downtrend.
2. About four months ago price rose from its EMA slumber (first yellow area). Since then price has gained downward momentum.
3. The BUOB is pretty decent but the preceding bars show some downward pressure (two bearish PBs) and so does the last downmove. So I guess price is at a confluence area finding support. Probably a BRN/VBRN, PPZ.
4. I can't say exactly why, but to me it does not like we're in a retrace on the weekly.
Most likely scenariaos in my opinion:
a) I think the BUOB is big enough to break the TL (grey). So we'll probably see a retrace to at least the FTA (first orange area on my chart).
b) As Jim teaches us somewhere on the first few hundred pages of this thread, the 150EMA is likely to act as support/resistance when price gets there for the first time after it broke through (see basetrades). So another likey scenario would be that price retraces to the 150EMA which could very well coincide with the STA (second trouble area). Furthermore this should also be where the 61.8 fib is located (Photoshop unfortunately has no fib tool). So this area might also act somehow magnetic.
Reading my post again it sounds so pseudo-sophisticated. I hope this works out. Otherwise this might become very embarassing for me.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
- #78,944
- Oct 31, 2010 10:30am Oct 31, 2010 10:30am
Same thing for me HS, you helped me out immensely and Jarroo was the catalyst.
Funny, Jarroo has shown us that concept over and over again, but suddenly it just clicks into place.
Next thing to work on is probably "Where is price going".
Hope you don't feel like I did yesterday or we can change your name from Han Solo, to Hang Over! LoL
But I would have earned some money.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
- #78,945
- Oct 31, 2010 10:30am Oct 31, 2010 10:30am
Not fishy...but appears to be strong ppz R we are trading into on the break...therefore personally i would rather enter on a retrace to 1.29 or 1.3 areas depending on what i see....I prefer on BEOB/BUOB to enter on retrace especially when the bar is so large....I don't do this all the time however...depends on PA...and if i can watch it since I work full time
Feed FXPRO
- #78,947
- Edited 1:21pm Oct 31, 2010 12:11pm | Edited 1:21pm
Overall it looks a bit messy to me. Nevertheless: PB from 365EMA and BRN 80.00. In general I'm still uncertain about where to put my TP with bars like these because I also see some trouble areas above and the PB's close is not the best (probably due to 150EMA and PPZs).
PB at BRN + TL
This example's also giving me headaches, exactly for the same reasons - I see the same trouble areas as you, tightly packed one next to another).
But I think the higher one will be more significant. I remember Ghous saying once that PPZ are like gas stations where price fuels up and speeds away. Well I see lots of speeding off of places around your upper (second) FTA. Just watch like price refuelled at point A, and like it sped away at B. Plus the obvious C.
We can see that the markets have been a lot more emotional around the second FTA level than the first FTA. The first FTA simply hasn't that much of a lifestory to tell. That's why I would opt for the second FTA level as the only FTA.
As for the target area - it really stands out so we agree on this one. No surprises here we have the same teachers.
"Put your shoulder to the wheel!"
- #78,949
- Edited Nov 1, 2010 2:21am Oct 31, 2010 1:15pm | Edited Nov 1, 2010 2:21am
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #78,950
- Edited 1:53pm Oct 31, 2010 1:30pm | Edited 1:53pm
I asume price will go north. Reason:
PB at BRN
This example's also giving me headaches, exactly for the same reasons - I see the same trouble areas as you, tightly...
I'm not sure if all my points are relevant and surely the FTA and the BRN play a major role, too. But it is an important area.
I really like your approach to this. It teaches me a lot. I think I will to try to add this to my analysis. Thanks.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
- #78,953
- Edited 2:44pm Oct 31, 2010 2:34pm | Edited 2:44pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #78,954
- Oct 31, 2010 3:06pm Oct 31, 2010 3:06pm
- Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Monarch o' the Glen | 5,561 Posts
CADJPY Weekly.
You Indicate 78.84 as the " Strong Support " ...
Is that where you have placed a Limit Entry?
If not that, {I realize it is very hard to show ALL in a ScrSht.} Would you Play a Low Break?
If CADJPY moves to confirm, Where would you consider your 1st TP? 40 Pips Away OR would you shoot for a 'Recent New Low?
40P Play on a weekly chart would normally say to me.... "Move along please. Nothing to see here."
I don't mean to sound negative it's just that when I put Real on the line, I like to be Positive {or as close as I can be}
Respectfully
On the other hand... {wouldn't life be nice if there was No Rebutal} I see a Possible Huge Short Potential building in this pair but from a different perspective.
I see Poss RE-Test of 74.00 but it should be incorporated in your analysis of Bear Attacks that the Bulls have Reinforced for Defence.
This one wont be easy. Soft Defence to start but becoming more solid as time {Price} elapses.
74.00
72.00
70.00
Take them out & the gate is Open to 52.00
My Chart view.
You Indicate 78.84 as the " Strong Support " ...
Is that where you have placed a Limit Entry?
If not that, {I realize it is very hard to show ALL in a ScrSht.} Would you Play a Low Break?
If CADJPY moves to confirm, Where would you consider your 1st TP? 40 Pips Away OR would you shoot for a 'Recent New Low?
40P Play on a weekly chart would normally say to me.... "Move along please. Nothing to see here."
I don't mean to sound negative it's just that when I put Real on the line, I like to be Positive {or as close as I can be}
Respectfully
On the other hand... {wouldn't life be nice if there was No Rebutal} I see a Possible Huge Short Potential building in this pair but from a different perspective.
I see Poss RE-Test of 74.00 but it should be incorporated in your analysis of Bear Attacks that the Bulls have Reinforced for Defence.
This one wont be easy. Soft Defence to start but becoming more solid as time {Price} elapses.
74.00
72.00
70.00
Take them out & the gate is Open to 52.00
My Chart view.
- #78,955
- Oct 31, 2010 3:32pm Oct 31, 2010 3:32pm
- Joined Jan 2006 | Status: Monarch o' the Glen | 5,561 Posts
- #78,959
- Edited 8:22pm Oct 31, 2010 7:51pm | Edited 8:22pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: HCR-LCS SFP | 6,026 Posts
Hey proletary, you're right. The second trouble area seems to be a highly emotional point: At (1) the TA is clearly respected in spite of a long run up that could have asked for a more expanded retrace. At (2) price is speeding back up like its tail is on fire. At (3) price opens with a gap underneath. At (4) a big IPB-like bar. At (5) first a PB and then it apporaches the trouble area with a gap open. At (6) it breaks through like there's no going back. At (7) a PB. And so forth.
I'm not sure if all my points are relevant and surely the FTA and...
You guys pretty much nailed it...
Too bad I signed off and crashed out before we all had a chance to play as Ghous, BT and I did earlier.
Next time.
- #78,960
- Oct 31, 2010 8:16pm Oct 31, 2010 8:16pm
Just taking a look at Habeeb's newest V5 pivot indicator.
It might be an idea to use this if someone is REALLY having trouble identifying the PPZ, until they get used to seeing them with the pivot indicator.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=78479
What does Habeeb Indie do? I thought you said to stay away from pivot points?
Thanks