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  • #24,801
  • Oct 29, 2010 11:40am Oct 29, 2010 11:40am
AUS/NZD drops 400pips in a couple of days. Is Aussie glory days over? Kiwi new darling of commodities currency? Darwin be damned if that bird grows wings!
  • #24,802
  • Edited 12:49pm Oct 29, 2010 12:32pm | Edited 12:49pm
These often occur after a fast fall fractal and take a bit of looking at. The key is the last leg down of the M and where it stop. If we break the last low .96449 usually the pull up is about 50% then the currency (AUD in this case rolls over).

If we pull back to 78% of the last move up, then you can get a dramatic move up. I will see if I have some examples of this.

As always I trade the market, it changes so my analysis changes with it. No matter what I think, every time it makes another swing it tells me something about what it might do.

If you have any books on technical analysis that tell you to put your stop one tick above the last high or low, due yourself a favour and burn them. Often markets like to retest the high or low, break the top by a couple of pips and collapse. If you are reading a book like that chances are it was writtern by someone who does not trade the current markets or was penned a long while back.

The markets changes, as people do one thing or another pretty soon the market will adapt to make that action a non winning situation. In these days of super computers the markets can adapt in very short periods of time.

Keep learning, keep reading and remember the market is the best teacher, study the pairs you trade, in fact I would say trade one pair and learn what it does. You can then build up the contracts you trade until you are pulling in the cash.


Have a great weekend everyone.

More fun on Monday

Mike Haran
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  • #24,803
  • Oct 30, 2010 6:32am Oct 30, 2010 6:32am
A couple of aspects hit on the 31st of October 2010, now we all know thats Sunday, and the markets just open on Sunday night. It is amazing how often falls start on a Sunday, inspite of no news being out.

What is it, why do the falls start then, I am sorry to say that I don't know, but still I look for answers which may be a little obscure. One aspect of market analysis that is much sneered at is using the planets to give direction, it is rumored that Ganns reference to natural law was to do with this so I had a look at what is going on in the skys above our heads at the moment and applied my research and analysis to it.

What is happening at the moment is venus is between us and the sun, this happens every so often, so I decided to look at what this particular aspect had done in the past. I went back to 2003 and I found 10 dates where the venus sun aspect was zero, every single date produced a turn, some big some small, in the 10 examples I looked at each date marked a turn. I also found some other analysis that taked about the venus sun bio hazard effect, some researcher found that every single out break of some flu matched a venus sun conjunction with inferior conjunctions being the most significant.

Now it could be just pure chance, but it also happens to coinside with a daily cycle point. Which I also looked at in terms of reliability. What I found was that the turn date projections give about a 60-70% of a turn within one calender day of the predicted date.

Also if the AUD is at a top then the next move up should not exceed the high, if indeed it does turn down and break the last low it makes me wonder will the stock market also take a dive too, if it does it could be a very substantial one too.

Not looking like a great time to be long.


Hope you all have a great week.


Mike Haran
  • #24,804
  • Edited 12:57pm Oct 30, 2010 12:43pm | Edited 12:57pm
What worries me a bit on the AUDUSD is that we did not get much of a follow through on the move down. A pattern that we are now in looks like a bull flag, which have a tendancy to break to the upside.

I have posted an ABCD pattern in price and time calculations where I would expect a reversal, Sunday would be the turn day as markets do not trade on Saturday. If we go above this point then I suspect that we might go higher and the top I thought was in is not.

Please have a look at where the money is chart, I posted this ages back, you can see the market went like an old dog and got all the money, now it is possible its on its way up to get the other bags of cash on the top. Its a little wonder people find trading difficult with this sort of price action.

Hope you are all having a great weekend.


Mike Haran
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  • #24,805
  • Edited 2:16pm Oct 30, 2010 2:01pm | Edited 2:16pm
The .9850 fib may be a good short subject to the data on Sun/Mon. Otherwise, look for resistance at .9945. Weekly chart is showing a very interesting picture. Higher time frames always rule the day in Fx. Market is readying for the end of year profit taking.

3rd chart below shows what is happening to the Kiwi - market has struggled to pump the aussie for short cover so it is pumping the Kiwi instead. The Kiwi is a little like the canary in the mine - there is no "fundies" basis for the PA on the Kiwi, other than loading up for short cover. The AUD and the Kiwi are usually at the leading edge of both bull and bear activity.

2nd chart shows the resistance on the S&P, market is struggling to push past it.

btw, you need to watch the EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD crosses if trading the Aussie. The PA on both of these is rather compelling viewing at present. Fx is a co-dependent system, can't trade one without watching it's co-dependent buddies. Market primarily trades not against the USD, but against the Euro. USD/CHF put in a tweezer bottom on October 14 and 15, this is usually a highly reliable trend reversal signal.
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  • #24,806
  • Oct 30, 2010 2:30pm Oct 30, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting Jade Gate
The .9850 fib may be a good short subject to the data on Sun/Mon. Otherwise, look for resistance at .9945. Weekly chart is showing a very interesting picture. Higher time frames always rule the day in Fx. Market is readying for the end of year profit taking.

3rd chart below shows what is happening to the Kiwi - market has struggled to pump the aussie for short cover so it is pumping the Kiwi instead. The Kiwi is a little like the canary in the mine - there is no "fundies" basis for the PA on the Kiwi, other than loading up for short cover....
Agree PA on Kiwi is total BS currently. Market is dumping Aussie in favor of Kiwi coz Aussie has touched the proverbial "forbidden fruit" and failed, so Big Dogs have decided they can get much more meat out of that bird since it has not reached its all-time high, a bit like the situation between Swissy and Yen, now that USD/CHF has hit new all-time lows, the sharks let it come up for air while turning pressure on UJ with all those juicy stops down below.
  • #24,807
  • Oct 30, 2010 2:54pm Oct 30, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting pqt
Agree PA on Kiwi is total BS currently. Market is dumping Aussie in favor of Kiwi coz Aussie has touched the proverbial "forbidden fruit" and failed, so Big Dogs have decided they can get much more meat out of that bird since it has not reached its all-time high, a bit like the situation between Swissy and Yen, now that USD/CHF has hit new all-time lows, the sharks let it come up for air while turning pressure on UJ with all those juicy stops down below.
The CPI data put a major spanner in the works for the AUD as play-mate of choice for the hedge funds. If the Aussie doesn't want to play, then they go for the more obscure 2nd sister, the lesser known Kiwi - the role of the Kiwi is absolutely pivotal in this current scenario. It's a shame that many retail traders generally don't watch it or understand how important it is for the big money.

And yes UJ will be a thorough treat when it is done, 79.75 should be fascinating (the low on April 1, 1995).

Spot Gold will likely put in a double top around 1400, then methinks it will be stand-aside (or get on board) as the mother-lode of all bricks falls back to earth.

The S&P has only retraced to the 61.8 fib from Dec 07, yet the Aussie has retraced to an all time high, a little hint that something is not quite right, being a tad overbought.
  • #24,808
  • Oct 30, 2010 5:27pm Oct 30, 2010 5:27pm
Appreciate the heads up on that Jade.


Thank you


Mike Haran
  • #24,809
  • Oct 30, 2010 6:38pm Oct 30, 2010 6:38pm
Nice basing pattern forming on the EUR/NZD cross, when this consolidation is done, it will likely take off north - quite the screamer, hundreds of pips in grease-lightning time doing it's volcano routine. This present sell down needs to be watched very closely.
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  • #24,810
  • Oct 31, 2010 12:36am Oct 31, 2010 12:36am
Quoting Jade Gate
The CPI data put a major spanner in the works for the AUD as play-mate of choice for the hedge funds. If the Aussie doesn't want to play, then they go for the more obscure 2nd sister, the lesser known Kiwi - the role of the Kiwi is absolutely pivotal in this current scenario. It's a shame that many retail traders generally don't watch it or understand how important it is for the big money.

And yes UJ will be a thorough treat when it is done, 79.75 should be fascinating (the low on April 1, 1995).

Spot Gold will likely put in a double top around...
I also like to watch ETF´s and commodities for a hint on aud/cad/nzd, this is my " layman`s method "......

Thank you for the great posts.


_________________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #24,811
  • Oct 31, 2010 3:41am Oct 31, 2010 3:41am
Quoting Mike Haran
These often occur after a fast fall fractal and take a bit of looking at. The key is the last leg down of the M and where it stop. If we break the last low .96449 usually the pull up is about 50% then the currency (AUD in this case rolls over).

If we pull back to 78% of the last move up, then you can get a dramatic move up. I will see if I have some examples of this.

As always I trade the market, it changes so my analysis changes with it. No matter what I think, every time it makes another swing it tells me something about what it might do....
In the short term, Aussie is moving within a block of consolidation.
We must wait for good signals about the limits of the trading range, imho.
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  • #24,812
  • Oct 31, 2010 5:08pm Oct 31, 2010 5:08pm
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  • #24,813
  • Oct 31, 2010 10:53pm Oct 31, 2010 10:53pm
HI With the RBA having their announcement less than 24 hours from now, what are your expectations. If we receive a .25pt rise is this likely priced in this price already (with the price rebound from .965ish). If we don't receive a rise tomorrow can we expect a fall to at lease .965ish.
Also do you think the RBA will wait on the FED's announcement first, before jumping in.
I'm currently short at .9880.
  • #24,814
  • Nov 1, 2010 1:38am Nov 1, 2010 1:38am
Quoting starman45
In the short term, Aussie is moving within a block of consolidation.
We must wait for good signals about the limits of the trading range, imho.
we are on top of the trading range
we'll see...
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  • #24,815
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:00am Nov 1, 2010 2:00am
Aussie seem will go higher and higher against usd
  • #24,816
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:46am Nov 1, 2010 2:46am
the aus is strong but the usd is weaker and going to get worst so back to a dollar we go
  • #24,817
  • Nov 1, 2010 3:47am Nov 1, 2010 3:47am
Quoting timster
HI With the RBA having their announcement less than 24 hours from now, what are your expectations. If we receive a .25pt rise is this likely priced in this price already (with the price rebound from .965ish). If we don't receive a rise tomorrow can we expect a fall to at lease .965ish.
Also do you think the RBA will wait on the FED's announcement first, before jumping in.
I'm currently short at .9880.

22% chance of a hike - bloomberg.. markets are pricing in no change.. action will depend on the message after the release
  • #24,818
  • Nov 1, 2010 6:45am Nov 1, 2010 6:45am
block of consolidation....
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  • #24,819
  • Nov 1, 2010 1:47pm Nov 1, 2010 1:47pm
http://www.aroundfx.com/news/market-...-rba-rate-hike


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went in long 9847 on a retrace pin-bar, SL to -5....possible 9945 target.....lets take a hike today
it had seemed so obvious at the time
  • #24,820
  • Nov 1, 2010 5:54pm Nov 1, 2010 5:54pm
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