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The Scalpers Dream

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  • Post #181
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 1:35pm Oct 28, 2010 1:35pm
  •  Intu
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Aspiring FX Artist | 660 Posts
I'm still making mistakes and fine tuning my own trading...
I promise I will make a thread... after 500 trades, probably within two or so weeks.

I find this system that Jaws "dug" up interesting.
Stop running and price action near round numbers...

One thing to know if you don't already.... (I hadn't always known)
Swaps (options) on currency products are priced at round numbers.
see my old post here...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...77&postcount=6
 
 
  • Post #182
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 1:40pm Oct 28, 2010 1:40pm
  •  TrendTradr
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: We make the trend. | 66 Posts
This is the farthest I could backtest on my demo account. The win % didn't change much. It's win rate is only slightly better then a coin toss at this point. Some other parameter would have to be added to make this system profitable. As it stands right now, it is pretty bad.


Bars in test 31720
Ticks modelled 1965938
Modelling quality 24.92%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit -492.17
Gross profit 399.70
Gross loss -891.87
Profit factor 0.45
Expected payoff -3.57
Absolute drawdown 520.07
Maximal drawdown 539.57 (5.39%)
Relative drawdown 5.39% (539.57)
Total trades 138
Short positions (won %) 74 (54.05%)
Long positions (won %) 64 (60.94%)
Profit trades (% of total) 79 (57.25%)
Loss trades (% of total) 59 (42.75%)
Largest
profit trade 6.20
loss trade -15.80
Average
profit trade 5.06
loss trade -15.12
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 6 (30.60)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 4 (-60.90)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 30.60 (6)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -60.90 (4)
Average
consecutive wins 2
consecutive losses 2
 
 
  • Post #183
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 1:50pm Oct 28, 2010 1:50pm
  •  Intu
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Aspiring FX Artist | 660 Posts
Thanks for the hard work!

I don't know...
I'm not exactly a backtesting guru...but if I were...
I'd remove Sundays, and only look at trades during the European and US sessions (highest volume), say from 1 am EST to 5 pm EST?

Just my thoughts...
 
 
  • Post #184
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  • Oct 28, 2010 1:56pm Oct 28, 2010 1:56pm
  •  fxbr56
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Member | 42 Posts
Quoting TriMagic
Disliked
No you didn't forget to do something because I don't get any trades also
Ignored
I haven't had any trades with the EA either. Trading manually for now.
 
 
  • Post #185
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  • Oct 28, 2010 2:04pm Oct 28, 2010 2:04pm
  •  roundrock
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: J16 Student | 902 Posts
forget about the SL, TP, Risk ratio for a moment.

why should the price hit xx00 when its at xx85 ? it may go upto xx95 and reverse. it may go upto xx99 and reverse. it needs to have other considerations like price action, trend, fibs, divergence etc.

all riund numbers are not magnets. only big round numbers are. like intervals of 500. not 100. GU, EU crosses 100s atleast 2-3 times a day. so whats so special ? try this for 1.55, 1.6, 1.65 etc

also trading hours is very important. EU, US mornings are good.

also taking trades in the trend would be good. if price is above open price, buy

then coming to SL, TP. we should reduce SL. If it doesnt reach xx00 immediately, there is no chance it will after retracing to xx50. just giving free pips to broker. i would try entry at 80, tp at 95, sl at 65. this would give 1:1 and also avoid 00 number
 
 
  • Post #186
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 2:40pm Oct 28, 2010 2:40pm
  •  jaws810
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 277 Posts
Quoting TrendTradr
Disliked
Even if you win 2 times for every loss, you still won't even be at break even if you are risking 35 pips to gain 15. Watch:

Trade one +15
Trade two +15
Trade three -35

Total = -5 pips loss.

You would have to trade at 70% accuracy just to be at break even. This means you would need to be right at least 75 - 80% of the time to even make the system worth trading.
Ignored
True, but that's only using one currency and no variable MM system that adjusts the number of lots after every trade. The back-test showed up to 14 wins in a row and only 5 losses in a row. A perfect example is my trading since before I started this thread 32 trades with 8 losers which is a net of 125 pips and a balance increase of 32.44% and that's with 4 losers in a row.I adjust my lot/unit size after every trade and I trade across 5 pairs allowing only one active trade at a time. It's difficult to back-test or even automate the way I'm trading. Until someone could design the EA as described in post 40 of this thread we can't come close to back-testing the way many of us have been trading it.
 
 
  • Post #187
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 3:16pm Oct 28, 2010 3:16pm
  •  jackdan
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 331 Posts
Hi All,


Funny because the other week end, i was going throught the help of the mql editor, and found the stop loos hunter theory and ea. And i came to exactly the same conclusion than Jaws, that started the thread. I also foun 1 ea that was a start of what i wanted. But, i needed the ea to cancel the pending trades that were not reached. i did my test, and indeed, the only profitable way to run the strategy is to do it during the high volatility time.

For EK24, it is VITAL to have a start and end time for the ea, from before
europe till after london fix. You do not want that ea to work during the low volume period.So, if you could add in that part. Also, i found that maybe the TP had not to reach the 00 level, as you may have found that there was some option defense, so, take a take profit at 14, or 15 pips but, from xx16 or xx17 level,or xx84 or xx83.

I add up the modified stop hunter, but only for ek24 to get some ideas. it is not working well, as it does not delete the pending orders, and does not have the time to trade function
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Modified stop-hunter.mq4   10 KB | 328 downloads
 
 
  • Post #188
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 3:37pm Oct 28, 2010 3:37pm
  •  jaws810
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 277 Posts
Every time the price crosses X.XX50 the EA will check the account balance and determine the lot size based on the account balance and user defined risk%, then it will place limit orders above at X.XX85 and X.XX15 below with a user defined SL, and TP set at X.XX00, so whichever way the price goes it will initiate a trade 15 pips from the big number with the TP set at the big number. It has to work with both 4 and 5 digit brokers and standard and micro accounts. If possible could you make it work on up to 5 user defined pairs from one window and have a user defined limit of how many trades can be open at the same time. The reason for this is I would like access to more trading opportunities while limiting the number of open trades which can’t be done if EA is attached to one chart for each pair. The user defined variable defaults would be:

5 digit broker- true/false(unless it could be done automatically)
SL in pips- 35
Risk management- true/ false(true default)
Risk %per trade- 15 (initiates maximum allowed trade using 15% of the account balance)
Lot size- .1 (used only if risk management is false)
Max trades- 2
Number of pairs to trade- 1-5
Pair 1 - EUR/USD (list of pairs to choose from)
Pair 2 - GBP/USD
Pair 3 – USD/JPY
Pair 4 - AUD/USD
pair 5 - USD/CHF

I've been trading exactly as the EA in this description would trade if the settings were 1max trade and 100% risk and it used those 5 pairs. Build it and back-test it then tell me it don't work. The lot adjustment would be down to .01 lots. I attached my trading spreadsheet I have used to record the results of my trading since I started using this system. The top number was my balance when I started, X=win 0=lose and the rest is labeled. The only thing that I've been doing that an EA cant do is using lot adjustment down to .00005 due to broker limitations, I've been trading it with OANDA.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls trading record.xls   21 KB | 278 downloads
 
 
  • Post #189
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 4:07pm Oct 28, 2010 4:07pm
  •  jackdan
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 331 Posts
from my test, you can also add:
(beware the spreads)

gbpjpy
eurjpy
eurchf
usdcad


they came out good. eurchf is pretty wild lately, makes the things easyer.
 
 
  • Post #190
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 4:22pm Oct 28, 2010 4:22pm
  •  Dreamliner
  • Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Member | 2,271 Posts
For those of us who use Oanda, can you please give us the number of units traded for your account balance? Also, do you set a certain percentage in the "preferences" under "Order Size", or how do you adjust your units after each win/loss?

Quoting jaws810
Disliked
[size=3][color=#1f497d]Every...
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #191
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:04pm Oct 28, 2010 4:31pm | Edited 5:04pm
  •  jaws810
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 277 Posts
Quoting Dreamliner
Disliked
For those of us who use Oanda, can you please give us the number of units traded for your account balance? Also, do you set a certain percentage in the "preferences" under "Order Size", or how do you adjust your units after each win/loss?
Ignored
I use this link and adjust each trade individually using entry price and I place the orders at the highest number of units possible rounded down to the nearest 5 units. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/account/margin-calculator

Here is an attachment with my transaction record which shows the units.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Transaction record.xls   110 KB | 291 downloads
 
 
  • Post #192
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:42pm Oct 28, 2010 4:42pm | Edited 4:42pm
  •  Dreamliner
  • Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Member | 2,271 Posts
Thank you. If you are using the highest number of units available, you can do that right on the platform without having to go to that link below. For instance, if you click on the chart and click on "Limit Buy" it will give you right there the maximum number of units available. Then just subtract 5.

Or better yet, under "User Preferences" just select "100 percent" under "Default Order Size" and then every trade you place will be at 100 percent. That way you compound after each trade, and do so automatically.

Will either of these help?

Quoting jaws810
Disliked
I use this link and adjust each trade individually using entry price and I place the orders at the highest number of units possible rounded down to the nearest 5 units. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/account/margin-calculator
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #193
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 5:08pm Oct 28, 2010 5:08pm
  •  jaws810
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 277 Posts
Quoting Dreamliner
Disliked
Thank you. If you are using the highest number of units available, you can do that right on the platform without having to go to that link below. For instance, if you click on the chart and click on "Limit Buy" it will give you right there the maximum number of units available. Then just subtract 5.

Or better yet, under "User Preferences" just select "100 percent" under "Default Order Size" and then every trade you place will be at 100 percent. That way you compound after each trade, and do so automatically.

Will either of these help?
Ignored
Except that feature don't work when placing limit orders it uses the current price and when your placing trades 300 pips above the current price pips away the 5 units are not enough to compensate for the difference resulting in not enough margin, I missed a trade or 2 because of this and the trades placed below the current price you would not get the most units possible . That's why I use the Margin calculator.
 
 
  • Post #194
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 6:28pm Oct 28, 2010 6:28pm
  •  Edd Ganuelas
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Maranatha | 446 Posts
why should the price hit xx00 when its at xx85 ? it may go upto xx95 and reverse. it may go upto xx99 and reverse. it needs to have other considerations like price action, trend, fibs, divergence etc.

all riund numbers are not magnets. only big round numbers are. like intervals of 500. not 100. GU, EU crosses 100s atleast 2-3 times a day. so whats so special ? try this for 1.55, 1.6, 1.65 etc

---

Big players especially the bank institutions usually transfer money in big amount ending with 000. If your SL is placed before 00, it will certainly be hit. If you want to exploit this numbers in your entries, go for it.

Sincerely,

Edd
 
 
  • Post #195
  • Quote
  • Oct 28, 2010 10:00pm Oct 28, 2010 10:00pm
  •  roundrock
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: J16 Student | 902 Posts
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
Disliked
why should the price hit xx00 when its at xx85 ? it may go upto xx95 and reverse. it may go upto xx99 and reverse. it needs to have other considerations like price action, trend, fibs, divergence etc.

all riund numbers are not magnets. only big round numbers are. like intervals of 500. not 100. GU, EU crosses 100s atleast 2-3 times a day. so whats so special ? try this for 1.55, 1.6, 1.65 etc

---

Big players especially the bank institutions usually transfer money in big amount ending with 000. If your SL is placed before 00, it will certainly...
Ignored
the idea is good but how do you decide when to enter when to exit, where do you keep stoploss ? how do you make the idea tradable consistently on long term basis ?

there are many such ideas but building a trading system is the key. for example buy when yesterday high is broken. most of the times it goes past and gives you some pips. but then how do you know tp, sl ?

looks like jaws has a plan with 5 pairs and limiting one at a time. we would wait and see. i would definitely as trading hours to the system. i dont trade in asia and late US hours.

on NFP day, pick some 10 pairs and place orders 1 hr before the news. it will give you lot of pips
 
 
  • Post #196
  • Quote
  • Oct 29, 2010 6:05am Oct 29, 2010 6:05am
  •  dnabrasil
  • Joined Jun 2010 | Status: 18 pips per day ---> 100% per month | 485 Posts
today's operation...

http://gyazo.com/4312b266624d06a4ea35474ad0aae46c.png


and total operation in order of gain..

http://gyazo.com/f6c17123f2cc00559a69adb9c5f13512.png
 
 
  • Post #197
  • Quote
  • Oct 29, 2010 6:16am Oct 29, 2010 6:16am
  •  TriMagic
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 77 Posts
Quoting dnabrasil
Disliked
today's operation...

http://gyazo.com/4312b266624d06a4ea35474ad0aae46c.png


and total operation in order of gain..

http://gyazo.com/f6c17123f2cc00559a69adb9c5f13512.png
Ignored
You mentioned you just follow trend right and then according to that enter? Manual correct? Nice results
 
 
  • Post #198
  • Quote
  • Oct 29, 2010 8:27am Oct 29, 2010 8:27am
  •  dnabrasil
  • Joined Jun 2010 | Status: 18 pips per day ---> 100% per month | 485 Posts
Quoting TriMagic
Disliked
You mentioned you just follow trend right and then according to that enter? Manual correct? Nice results
Ignored
i didin't do anything..
all was done by the EA
 
 
  • Post #199
  • Quote
  • Oct 29, 2010 9:12am Oct 29, 2010 9:12am
  •  jaws810
  • | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Member | 277 Posts
Quoting dnabrasil
Disliked
i didin't do anything..
all was done by the EA
Ignored
which EA?
 
 
  • Post #200
  • Quote
  • Oct 29, 2010 9:12am Oct 29, 2010 9:12am
  •  TriMagic
  • | Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 77 Posts
Quoting dnabrasil
Disliked
i didin't do anything..
all was done by the EA
Ignored
But EA is not opening any trades for me?
 
 
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