AUD/USD

here's why I'm shorting now. I know the chart is messy but focus on the red lines.

I agree.

Trend line breaks often signal good entries, I am a little wooly in my head today so I don't think I will post anything, I might not even trade as I feel a little tender.


Good luck to you all



Mike Haran

Thanks for taking the time to post your charts and views Mike, I have found them very interesting.

GP

That trend line you have drawn is a little weak, usually you need more than 2 points on a trend line for it to be valid.

IMHA

+1

Its good seeing everyones opinions. I am learning more by following this thread.

other open trades

You got to know when to hold up, when to fold up, know when to run...

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=262896

Might provoke a sell off

Pulled up to the 50% of the fall, put a pitch fork on the swing on the H4 chart, you can see until we break out of this the my bias is down.


Good trading


Mike Haran

True, that was pretty much wack analysis.You know what was wrong with it? its scale therefore the angular lines looked different.
But look here these 2 pics 1 from the eurjpy drop and a corrected one from audusd. These ones are plausible.
I must say this is not my main trading style but it also works pretty well.

Since you have made such inspirational post about Gann's thoughts It gave me the will to go read a bit about him and was simply applying one of his principles about the 45 degree trendlines which are strong supports and resistances and it turns out that works extremely well gave me 60 pips today on the eurjpy. The problem is that metatrader's angular lines can be tricky as you've seen all I did to change this analysis was to zoom out and it turns out that support was barely hit. Sorry for the messy charts though.

I knew that I should not have traded today, my head was not right at all. I also strayed off and looked at the EURJPY, which is not a good idea as I am much more familiar with the AUDUSD.

I had the next big turn coming on the 31.10.2010, rules of alternation would make this a high. There is a problem, cycles can be broken, just because you can predict them does not mean that the market will get to them. Sometime the minor cycles can phase out causing the market to turn before the turn point, so your move to a high is reversed as the market is now moving down. All you can say is that if the market is moving up before a cycle point it should turn the opposite way ie down.

If we stay under 50% of the last swing and under the pitch fork upper line then my best guess is the red line would represent a turn up. I had predicted today as an up day, certainly this looks a little weak to me. A break below the red arrow, would certainly increase the chances this might be a top.


All the best and I am glad I inspire some of you


Mike Haran

NY session was nothing more than a nightmare today. Could have grabbed a couple of nice bounces off of the W PP but I'm glad that I was done trading by 6:30am est. Currently it looks like we'll be retesting the W PP here.

Here is one of my first attempts at a M15 price and time entry.

Strategy short the market at one of the price levels shown when the time band is hit, intraday markets like this are usually accurate in 1-3 bars.

I am only interested in price when time is hit.

No juice, no trade.

in fact its just hanging there. Its dead!

Well it is Friday (AEST) plus EVERYTHING is "dead" at the moment

i like this pair, this works more on technical analysis than fundametals. if someone is good at technical analysis and gold rate analysis. this is the pair to make money as its not really volatile like other EUR/USD. i wish i was good at both analysis and could make tons and tons from it.

Great, we got some more swing so I can estimate where we might stop. I studies a lot of pattern analysis in my time and one of the things that I noticed with ABCD patterns is usually the first ABCD pattern after a big fall or big rise was almost never a ABCD ratio, usually the CD leg was a lot longer than AB, usually 1.45 or 1.68 or 2.

So, The minimum targets are the minimum levels I would expect, at these points I will be moving my stops closer just in case this is the first one which is an ABCD pattern at 100%.

The acceleration point is usually where the market takes off and the fall gather momentum, but sometimes we can get a reaction at this level and the price will go up and take out the last swing high by a couple of pips, then fall. You end up with an "M" pattern". The next turn is Saturday, so that would make monday an upday.

I have attached the chart for you all to see, I don't trade on a Friday anymore as it can be tricky.

My bias is still short, and I am short the AUD at the moment.


Good luck to you all


Mike Haran

whats the deal with the aussie, i had a strong fib 50 with dp but still not broken...let see what will happen

whos going to be holding shorts through the GDP announcement?