AUD/USD

Just placed a long with a tight stop. Even with the bad news there is a possibility this can go up to 98.50

Lower than expected CPI, thinking now that RBA won't hike rates next month.

At what rate did you enter the market?

Thanks much. I knew I should have woken up earlier. I have some long that were activated at 0.9750. This looks like a nasty ride for me coming up.

According to my cycle information, this wave should end around the 27.10.2010. I have attached a chart for you all to have a look at the red dotted line is a minor cycle, you can expect to see a reaction here.

The white line is where the bigger cycle terminates, if this is a decline from a top I would expect to see the last low exceeded at 0.96609.

Then there would be very good evidence to suggest that we are in a decline, at some sort of top is in place.

My approach is to remain short until my time cycles point is reached and see where the price is. An ABCD termination point would be 0.96335 and 127% of the last swing would give 0.95771. I should have just shorted at the top and waited instead of trying to play each and every turn on the way down. My bias is still down.

I think it would be very fool hardy to try to buy it at the moment. Let the smoke clear

Good trading to you all

Mike Haran

that was definitely the worst place to set a long trade

You waited for the market to come up, pull back and you entered on the top of the pull back. As a method of entry it was good. your stop should have been under the last swing low 0.98771, 48 pips or so under your entry.

Its a good strategy at the start of a move. The reason it was bad here was the previous high was higher, so you could have maybe though "mmm maybe the tops is in".

The entry method in this area was a bad move, we are maybe at the end of a trend. Your stop size was far to big, you held a 200 pip stop when 50 would have told you that you were correct or not. I used to do exactly the same. I remember holding a 500 point stop on the eurusd once. Oh and because the market was going up I bought in again. So I had 2 trades both negative at 500 pips. You know that the market did not turn round and I blew my account for two trades of 1000 points. Never had I ever held a winning trade so long, but I was more than happy to watch a losing trade rack up the miles.

If you ever felt that cold bead of sweat form on your back, and felt slightly sick and empty when you look at a trade, then its your brains way of saying your wrong. Someone once said to me the market will give you all the pain you want. it does if you let it.

Most traders especially the new guys are pulled into a business designed to pull the cash out of their accounts faster than any casino. You might dress it up as any way you want, but no plan, no strategy and no risk control or knowledge is as good as gambling at the casino. In fact its worse because at least at the casino you get to have a night out.

Sadly, most people would rather blow $20,000 trading then spend a penny learning from someone how actually does it for a living. I once taught a nice young lady to trade. She was a gambler, no matter what I said she would do exactly what she had always done, bet the house on a position then call me up asking had she done the right thing.

I told her one night that she was wrong in a position and she should close it as it had passed a point to invalidate the pattern. She said to me it will turn round, its going to turn round. It never did and that was the end of her account, and the lat I heard of her. She was trading for the thrill, not to make money. If that sounds like you then ask yourself

"am I making money"
"do I have a plan"
"do I control risk"
"do I know what I am doing"

if the answer to any of the above is no, then my advice is go into a dark room put some ice on your head and decide where to go on holiday with the money in your trading account, or give it to some homeless person and do some good with the cash.

If you carry on trading you will definately blow your complete account and have a very bad time doing it.

Mike Haran

P.S I did all the above 3 or 4 times before I learnt my lesson and got some professional help.

To be fair, I have that sensation everytime the market goes against me for -20 pips or more. If I close my trade everytime I got a sickening feeling in my stomach, I would have closed numerous trades and busted my account a long time ago. I am a nervous person by nature, so I usually just switch off the laptop and go do something around the house whenever a trade is getting nasty. Like now with the Aussie.

Stick to your guns and have a parachute (stop loss) before you go in! thats my advice. Yeah i just shut my laptop down and walk away. short aud at 0.9722, think when time NY opens, aud will get sold back down below 0.97.

I don't see any reason why it should not reach parity once again (and then trade in the new trading zone for some time)...

QE2 might be watered down, US consumer and business confidence increasing, china slowdown pboc pumped rates up, domestic inflationary pressures are off given where cpi came in at

dont worry, it will go up sooner or later

Its a hard lesson to learn..... Failing to plan, is planing to fail and add the emotion of losing money and maybe a little revenge trading on top of that and you have a formula for more pain. The market doesn't care which way you chose to play it.

hahah revenge trading is the right term, having blown 2 lots of money, im back a lot more wiser and a lot more risk management focussed.

Was that before or after "haranfx", "forex master key", "fxsignaltrader", "forexoma", your buddies Seamus and Leventis, did I forget any?

On oanda charts where the candles have slightly different timings, the trendline seems to be getting respected nicely. I'm still holding that long.

This structure on the AUDUSD is a fast falling fractal, usually it has 7 waves in it. Two possible reactions to it.

1) 38% retrace of the complete fall.
2) Staggered correction that wipes out all of the fall.


No idea which one is going to happen, crystal ball is on the blink. But I have identified a price target for a reversal based on the fractal form and a ABCD pattern.

.96329
.95994

Again look for time to be in the ball park which it is already.


Good Luck


Mike Haran

...I'll go after .95917...let's see what happens...

Thanks Haran, though I can't really understand your strategy. Nonetheless I decided to move my stop loss just below the recently touched 200 EMA on the 4H chart. Also the stochs and RVI really seem to be in buy territory. I had a look at the weekly chart and it seems all is pointing down but it costs me to believe that this could not be a turning point for at least 0.98. Aussie's still good fundamentally even after the bad news of today and as someone said in here before, I wouldn't also be surprised if the AUD would go all the way to parity again. Right now I'm in the red 40 pips. Somehow I always find it harder when it is to go long. According to my portfolio 70% of my winning trades are all short. Anyway if it hits my stop loss I will be off this pair.

Yohay just posted his analysis on gold, you can find it on the main page and his analysis is bullish. Looking to my gold charts I follow the same sentiment. We already know the strong correlation of gold and aud. This is another thing that could back up the bullish analysis of this pair.

Yohay's post