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AUD/USD

  • #24,701
  • Edited 6:39am Oct 26, 2010 6:36am | Edited 6:39am
Aussie Cpi out tomorrow, so it will be interesting to see where the Aussie moves to then?
But so far i am still seeing the price go down to my first valuation target of .9860 then a move to .9830 for a further retracement of the .9750 price range.
Until the Cpi comes out Tomorrow and November 4 fed Qe2, I think it is November 4, however it will be then when we see what happens to our dollar.
  • #24,702
  • Oct 26, 2010 6:53am Oct 26, 2010 6:53am
First target achieved .9860, Waiting for next target in range.
  • #24,703
  • Oct 26, 2010 7:03am Oct 26, 2010 7:03am
Quoting truenoteno
First target achieved .9860, Waiting for next target in range.
Inserted Video


enjoys to release ur stress n back after london close
  • #24,704
  • Oct 26, 2010 7:39am Oct 26, 2010 7:39am
For those of you following my AUDUSD calls I promised an update, to my call of last night which was right on the high of the day and virtually to the pip. Those of you that were brave enough to trust a beginner like me should be holding onto a 128 pip move as I write this.

My next cycle point comes in soon so I have estimated the price levels we could get to. Please remember that TIME is more impoirtant than price and far more accurate.

Price levels can be out by 20-30 pips but time is usually to the bar or within 15 minutes or so of the prediction. My broker it says 17:20 but this is Cryprus time, so you have to convert.

Approx 110 mins from the current candle

Lets see if I can nail this one.

Good Luck


Mike Haran
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  • #24,705
  • Oct 26, 2010 8:45am Oct 26, 2010 8:45am
Time is not up yet so I think it might be my next level, until the time is up I am not going long...waiting.

Mike Haran

18X5mns left 90 mins
  • #24,706
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:03am Oct 26, 2010 9:03am
First target invalid as it was too soon for a turn in time. Usually the turns are on time or within 1 hour bar of the actual turn, yesterday was right on time so I am thinking today will be on time too.

It can be hard waiting you think what if it comes early, I will miss it, that is very true but what happens if it falls 50 points on the last bar? I have seen that happen, you can always get in later.

Mike Haran
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  • #24,707
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:22am Oct 26, 2010 9:22am
My second target has been hit, now completing my valuation of future price targets.
It has now bounced off the rising trend line. Probably pulling back for further downside towards the .9750. Valuation for this point is a low probability however on the 4hr chart it shows further support around that pricing.

Next valuation target is .9689 low - medium probability. Possible towards the end of the week. Waiting for the big showdown for next weeks fed decision.

Don't forget to see the Aussie Cpi tomorrow, could push the Aussie higher as all the news has been doing, but we never know how the Aud will react.

See you all in the morning!
  • #24,708
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:30am Oct 26, 2010 9:30am
Hey thanks grashid for your you tube video. Pretty good singing i say.
She is hot though!
Never thought she was still singing. Go Dion!
  • #24,709
  • Edited 9:54am Oct 26, 2010 9:44am | Edited 9:54am
Dogs chase cars and men chase markets.

Many time I have been caught in this way, I've missed the boat, panic sets in.

You fire an order into a quickly moving market, only to see that you sold the exact low or bought the exact high. This is impulse trading and I don't know why but everyone can hit highs and lows to the exact point.

Try it on a demo sometime and do the opposite of what you think, you will be selling tops and buying bottoms like a pro.

We should see a pull back here. If time is up and the market does not move lower I will just have to chalk this one up as a no trade.

Also at .618 of the last hourly swing, on the hour chart I get a time match but not on the 5 min chart, maybe I am looking to precise, but I expect a chance to get in on a retrace.

All the best


Mike Haran
  • #24,710
  • Oct 26, 2010 9:53am Oct 26, 2010 9:53am
Wasn't very smart of me to take that short position this morning around 9:00. I knew better than that and I went against what my indicators were telling me...

Trailing stop kicked me out at -15 pips. Not breaking the bank, but shouldn't have happened.

What's the point to rules if one isn't going to follow them? heh...
  • #24,711
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:07am Oct 26, 2010 10:07am
The biggest threat to you as a trader is not to have faith in your system. Sure its sometimes wrong, but often its not. Test your system, understand it, use your head to figure out when to apply it.

Sometimes, we chose not to follow our system, this will lead always to problems. I have done it countless times, I always ask myself why.

You are really trading against yourself, the market is, you are reacting to it, your reactions and choices determine the outcome not the market.

All the best

Mike Haran
  • #24,712
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:11am Oct 26, 2010 10:11am
Quoting Mike Haran
The biggest threat to you as a trader is not to have faith in your system. Sure its sometimes wrong, but often its not. Test your system, understand it, use your head to figure out when to apply it.

Sometimes, we chose not to follow our system, this will lead always to problems. I have done it countless times, I always ask myself why.

You are really trading against yourself, the market is, you are reacting to it, your reactions and choices determine the outcome not the market.

All the best

Mike Haran
Agreed completely. Although, I will say, trading was difficult for me yesterday, it was my lack and faith in my system that told me not to short this morning, and told me to hold on to eur/usd for a long of 30 pips, I came out with 2.

I am, without a doubt, the biggest enemy to my trading. All part of the learning process though... if I can never discipline myself enough to lock in the rules of my system ... then a blown account is what awaits me. Hopefully I don't have to have to many of those in order to finally get it locked down in my head.
  • #24,713
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:14am Oct 26, 2010 10:14am
At the last turn, before this one I saw a very similar thing happen, the market came close to a level but the time was too soon, then it looked like it was going to reverse only to come back take out the last high exactly on time by a couple of pips. Hence everyone that was short and had their stop on the last bar would have been stopped out.

I wonder will we see the same thing again.


Mike Haran

Could not resist, bought on my time match, I guess all I can say is Woof!!!
  • #24,714
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:37am Oct 26, 2010 10:37am
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  • #24,715
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:44am Oct 26, 2010 10:44am
I'll be watching the close of the candle to decide whether to run or wait.
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  • #24,716
  • Oct 26, 2010 10:47am Oct 26, 2010 10:47am
One of the entry levels was .98328 (depending on where you drop you fib level and which broker you use it can vary. Price reacted off it to within 3 pips, and rallied 40 points the temptation is to jump on, usually at the high. only to watch the market fall like water underneath you.

If you have reason to think you have a turn use your fib tool and look to get in at .618 or .786, in this case it was .707, but you get the idea, its a zone you look for a pull back.

Don't put your stop under the last low, you are asking for it to be taken, inspite of what all the trading books say. You can also place an order over tha last swing high because if the market really is going up then it will fill your order, the only problem with this is that you have to use a bigger stop, or though the trade has confirmed your expectations.

Your first stop should be wide, broker love to spike these levels, because if I can figure them out I am sure they can.

The dotted red line is the time cycle prediction.

Good Trading to you all, if this plays out this trade will take a while.

Mike Haran
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  • #24,717
  • Oct 26, 2010 11:17am Oct 26, 2010 11:17am
Quoting Mike Haran
At the last turn, before this one I saw a very similar thing happen, the market came close to a level but the time was too soon, then it looked like it was going to reverse only to come back take out the last high exactly on time by a couple of pips. Hence everyone that was short and had their stop on the last bar would have been stopped out.

I wonder will we see the same thing again.


Mike Haran

Could not resist, bought on my time match, I guess all I can say is Woof!!!
If you want to avoid "missing the boat" when trying to get in near a support zone, you can either scale in part of your positions a few pips b4 support to avoid any "ambush", or drill down to 5mn or 1mn TF using scalping tools for exact entries (RSI +stochs work well for me.)
  • #24,718
  • Oct 26, 2010 1:44pm Oct 26, 2010 1:44pm
I certainly did not expect the market to move on down so far, we did get a reaction close to the predicted time and price level, but as I said earlier in the thread, you don't know is that the final low or will it again move lower. That move where price wraps over makes a final low then rallies is a market special. Get everyone long, shoot up, 40 pips, many people buy the top of the rally, put their stop under the last low it was the .618 so it can't possibly be broken look at the rally etc.

Price dips one more time, catching all the money now its ready to go up, without you on it.

I guess a lot of you already know this. Brokers really are after your money.

A good night to all.


That last swing was 127% on the M15 a typical stop catch by the way

Mike Haran
  • #24,719
  • Oct 26, 2010 1:47pm Oct 26, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting usapgapro
I will put my neck out there and say I am short 5 mini lots @.9950.

We have seen a 150pip range already, with London only open an hour. The chance of this going much higher is unlikely "on average". Only time will tell.
Well I added another 5 lots at the break of .99 and got out just below yesterdays low at .9820. The old me would have stayed in and either continued to ride it down or let it take me out at break even. The new me is happy with close to $1k for 2 days work.
  • #24,720
  • Oct 26, 2010 2:54pm Oct 26, 2010 2:54pm
5 lots is a cracking amount to trade on a nice move like this, your broker is no doubt loving you.


All the best

Mike Haran
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